Opinion
Two Press Conferences, Two Futures: Reality vs. Liberal Delusion
Poilievre lays out a real plan to fight fentanyl and secure Canada’s economy. Carney delivers empty slogans and Trudeau 2.0 talking points.
So let’s talk about two very different press conferences that happened today. One was from Pierre Poilievre, who laid out a serious, detailed plan to crack down on fentanyl traffickers, secure Canada’s borders, and put drug kingpins in prison for life. The other? Mark Carney, the Liberal Party’s unelected golden boy, who stood at a podium, threw out a bunch of vague, focus-grouped slogans, and then told Canadians—with a straight face—that he’s not a politician.
Hold on—HAHAHAHAHA. Let’s just take a second to appreciate how absurd that is.
Mark Carney—the man standing at a podium, announcing his candidacy to lead the Liberal Party, delivering pre-rehearsed political talking points, and desperately trying to sound relatable—is telling you he’s not a politician.
That’s like Justin Trudeau saying he’s not a virtue-signaler. It’s like Joe Biden saying he’s a great public speaker. It’s like CNN saying they just report the news. It’s so obviously untrue that you almost have to admire the sheer arrogance of saying it out loud.
But Carney’s dishonesty didn’t stop there. No, he went on to deliver a speech so full of contradictions, hypocrisy, and Liberal gaslighting that it deserves its own category at the Academy Awards.
Carney’s Fantasy vs. Poilievre’s Reality on the Fentanyl Crisis
Poilievre’s press conference today was dead serious—because the fentanyl crisis is dead serious. He laid out the numbers:
- 50,000 Canadians dead since 2016. More than all the soldiers we lost in World War II.
- A super lab in British Columbia capable of producing enough fentanyl to kill 95 million people.
- 99% of shipping containers coming into Canada go uninspected.
His response? Mandatory life sentences for fentanyl traffickers. 15-year minimums for those caught with smaller amounts. Military-backed border security. 2,000 new CBSA officers to stop fentanyl from coming in at the source.
Now let’s compare that to Carney’s response.
Oh wait—he didn’t have one.
Carney spent his entire press conference talking about “trade diversification” and “economic growth.” Not a single detailed plan for stopping the flow of fentanyl into this country, putting drug traffickers in prison, or protecting Canadian families.
Why? Because the Liberal Party doesn’t actually care about fentanyl. They only started pretending to care because Trump forced them to.
Poilievre called it out perfectly:
“If Donald Trump hadn’t threatened tariffs, Trudeau wouldn’t even be talking about fentanyl.”
And he’s right. Because if Trudeau, Carney, and the Liberals actually cared about fentanyl, they wouldn’t have eliminated mandatory minimums for traffickers with Bill C-5.
Carney’s Laughable “Trade Strategy” vs. Poilievre’s Economic Reality
Carney—who spent most of his career **as an unelected globalist banker—**wants you to believe he has a plan to fix Canada’s economy. His big idea?
“We need to diversify trade away from the U.S.”
Oh, brilliant! Canada should just pivot away from its largest trading partner—the country that buys 75% of our exports—and do business with… who exactly?
China? The same China that’s flooding our country with fentanyl and stealing our intellectual property?
That’s like saying, “I don’t like getting my paycheck from my current job, so I’ll just get paid by a different company!” That’s not how reality works, Mark.
But now Mark Carney wants to diversify trade away from the U.S.? Fascinating. And how exactly does he plan to do that?
Energy East? Oh yeah, you guys killed that. A pipeline that would have let us sell our own oil to our own refineries instead of importing from Saudi Arabia—but nope, too “dirty” for the Liberal climate cult.
Northern Gateway? Oh yeah, canceled that too. That would have gotten Alberta oil to the Pacific, letting us sell to Asia instead of relying on the Americans. But the Liberals shut it down before the first barrel could even roll.
How about LNG exports to Japan? Oh wait—Trudeau’s government said there was “no business case.” Meanwhile, Japan is signing massive deals with Qatar while Canada, sitting on one of the world’s largest gas reserves, does absolutely nothing. Brilliant strategy, Mark.
So what’s the plan here? Sell more maple syrup to Belgium? Hope the French suddenly develop a taste for Tim Hortons coffee? Maybe trade luxury tax credits for electric BMWs? Be serious.
This is the problem with guys like Carney—they live in a world of theoretical trade deals and imaginary supply chains, while the rest of us have to live with reality. And the reality is, Canada depends on the U.S. because Liberal policies have systematically destroyed every alternative.
But sure, Mark. Tell us more about your vision for trade while Canada’s biggest industries are locked out of the global market—because of people like you.
Meanwhile, Poilievre actually acknowledged reality.
“Trump sees weakness, and what does a real estate mogul from New York do when he spots weakness? He pounces.”
This isn’t just about trade. This is about Canada being so economically weak after eight years of Liberal mismanagement that we’re now at the mercy of Trump’s tariffs.
And what did Carney have to say about that? Nothing.
Carney’s Carbon Tax Flip-Flop
And here it is—Carbon Tax 2.0 from Trudeau 2.0.
Mark Carney, the guy who spent years preaching that carbon taxes were the single most powerful tool to fight climate change, is now standing at a podium, pretending he never said that.
“We should eliminate the consumer carbon tax and instead make large polluters pay.”
Oh really? Excuse me? Carney spent his entire career defending carbon taxes, telling struggling Canadians that their skyrocketing gas and heating bills were just part of the “climate transition.” And now, magically, he’s against them?
This isn’t leadership. This is pure, shameless political opportunism.
Let’s get something straight: Mark Carney doesn’t actually care about the carbon tax. What he does care about is winning an election. And right now, even Liberal voters hate the carbon tax. So suddenly, he’s got a new idea—carbon tax for thee, but not for me.
Because, of course, Carney himself never had to pay these taxes. The man made millions as a banker, then made even more at Brookfield Asset Management—a firm that just happens to be heavily invested in fossil fuels. Oh yeah, Carney loved talking about green energy, but when it came to his own paycheck? Fossil fuels were just fine.
This is the classic Liberal formula: They jack up your energy costs, kill your job, and call it a “transition” while making sure their wealthy buddies get exemptions.
Now contrast that with Pierre Poilievre’s response.
Axe the tax.
Yeah, no shit.
While Carney is rebranding the exact same Liberal scam, Poilievre is saying what every Canadian already knows: The carbon tax isn’t saving the planet. It’s just making life unaffordable.
Because here’s the truth: It was never about fighting climate change. It was always about taking your money. And Carney’s latest spin? It’s just the next version of the same scam.
Mark Carney: Trudeau 2.0, Just With a Better Suit
Here’s the bottom line: Poilievre laid out a real plan today—one that actually addresses the fentanyl crisis, border security, and Canada’s economic vulnerabilities.
Carney? He gave a meaningless, bureaucratic speech that could have been written by ChatGPT.
Poilievre talked about real consequences for fentanyl traffickers. Carney didn’t.
Poilievre called out the Liberals’ disastrous economic policies. Carney helped design them.
Poilievre acknowledged Canada’s dependence on the U.S. Carney pretended we could just trade with Europe instead.
And yet, the Liberal Party wants you to believe that Mark Carney is Canada’s next great leader.
Here’s the truth: Carney isn’t new. He isn’t different. He isn’t a “pragmatist.” He’s just Justin Trudeau in a better suit, with a fancier resume, and the exact same failed policies.
And if Canadians fall for this scam, we’ll get four more years of Trudeau-style incompetence—just with a British accent.
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Opinion
Globally, 2025 had one of the lowest annual death rates from extreme weather in history
Congratulations World!
Here at THB we are ending 2025 with some incredibly good news that you might not hear about anywhere else — Globally, 2025 has had one of the lowest annual death rates from disasters associated with extreme weather events in recorded history.¹
According to data from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) at the Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium (via Our World in Data), through October 2025, the world saw about 4,500 deaths related to extreme weather events.² Tragically, the final two months of 2025 saw large loss of life related to flooding in South and Southeast Asia, associated with Cyclones Senyar and Ditwah.
While the final death tolls are not yet available, reports suggest perhaps 1,600 people tragically lost their lives in these and several other events in the final two months of the year.
If those estimates prove accurate, that would make 2025 among the lowest in total deaths from extreme weather events. Ever! I am cautious here because the recent decade or so has seen many years with similarly low totals — notably 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2021.
What we can say with some greater confidence is that the death rate from extreme weather events is the lowest ever at less than 0.8 deaths per 100,000 people (with population data from the United Nations). Only 2018 and 2015 are close.
To put the death rate into perspective, consider that:
- in 1960 it was >320 per 100,000;
- in 1970, >80 per 100,000;
- in 1980, ~3 per 100,000;
- in 1990, ~1.3 per 100,000;
Since 2000, six years have occurred with <1.0 deaths per 100,000 people, all since 2014. From 1970 to 2025 the death rate dropped by two orders of magnitude. This is an incredible story of human ingenuity and progress.
To be sure, there is some luck involved as large losses of life are still possible — For instance, 2008 saw almost 150,000 deaths and a death rate of ~21 per 100,000. Large casualty events remain a risk that requires our constant attention and preparation.
But make no mistake, 2025 is not unique, but part of a much longer-term trend of reduced vulnerability and improved preparation for extreme events. Underlying this trend lies the successful application of science, technology, and policy in a world that has grown much wealthier and thus far better equipped to protect people when, inevitably, extreme events do occur.
Bravo World!
Learn more:
Formetta, G., & Feyen, L. (2019). Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards. Global Environmental Change, 57, 101920.
1
What is “recorded history”? CRED says their data is robust since 2000, as their dataset did not have complete global coverage and perviously many events went unreported. That means that the tabulations of CRED prior to 2000 are with high certainty undercounts of actual deaths related to extreme weather events.
2
Note that extreme temperature event impacts (cold and hot) are not included here — Not becaue they are not a legitimate focus, but because tracking such events has only begun in recent years, and methodologies are necessarily different when it comes to accounting for the direct loss of life related to storms and floods (e.g., epidemiological mortality vs. actual mortality). See a THB discussion of some of these issues here. My recommendation is to account for extreme temperature impacts in parallel to impacts from events like hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes — Rather than trying to combine apples and oranges.
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Addictions
Coffee, Nicotine, and the Politics of Acceptable Addiction
From the Brownstone Institute
By
Every morning, hundreds of millions of people perform a socially approved ritual. They line up for coffee. They joke about not being functional without caffeine. They openly acknowledge dependence and even celebrate it. No one calls this addiction degenerate. It is framed as productivity, taste, wellness—sometimes even virtue.
Now imagine the same professional discreetly using a nicotine pouch before a meeting. The reaction is very different. This is treated as a vice, something vaguely shameful, associated with weakness, poor judgment, or public health risk.
From a scientific perspective, this distinction makes little sense.
Caffeine and nicotine are both mild psychoactive stimulants. Both are plant-derived alkaloids. Both increase alertness and concentration. Both produce dependence. Neither is a carcinogen. Neither causes the diseases historically associated with smoking. Yet one has become the world’s most acceptable addiction, while the other remains morally polluted even in its safest, non-combustible forms.
This divergence has almost nothing to do with biology. It has everything to do with history, class, marketing, and a failure of modern public health to distinguish molecules from mechanisms.
Two Stimulants, One Misunderstanding
Nicotine acts on nicotinic acetylcholine receptors, mimicking a neurotransmitter the brain already uses to regulate attention and learning. At low doses, it improves focus and mood. At higher doses, it causes nausea and dizziness—self-limiting effects that discourage excess. Nicotine is not carcinogenic and does not cause lung disease.
Caffeine works differently, blocking adenosine receptors that signal fatigue. The result is wakefulness and alertness. Like nicotine, caffeine indirectly affects dopamine, which is why people rely on it daily. Like nicotine, it produces tolerance and withdrawal. Headaches, fatigue, and irritability are routine among regular users who skip their morning dose.
Pharmacologically, these substances are peers.
The major difference in health outcomes does not come from the molecules themselves but from how they have been delivered.
Combustion Was the Killer
Smoking kills because burning organic material produces thousands of toxic compounds—tar, carbon monoxide, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and other carcinogens. Nicotine is present in cigarette smoke, but it is not what causes cancer or emphysema. Combustion is.
When nicotine is delivered without combustion—through patches, gum, snus, pouches, or vaping—the toxic burden drops dramatically. This is one of the most robust findings in modern tobacco research.
And yet nicotine continues to be treated as if it were the source of smoking’s harm.
This confusion has shaped decades of policy.
How Nicotine Lost Its Reputation
For centuries, nicotine was not stigmatized. Indigenous cultures across the Americas used tobacco in religious, medicinal, and diplomatic rituals. In early modern Europe, physicians prescribed it. Pipes, cigars, and snuff were associated with contemplation and leisure.
The collapse came with industrialization.
The cigarette-rolling machine of the late 19th century transformed nicotine into a mass-market product optimized for rapid pulmonary delivery. Addiction intensified, exposure multiplied, and combustion damage accumulated invisibly for decades. When epidemiology finally linked smoking to lung cancer and heart disease in the mid-20th century, the backlash was inevitable.
But the blame was assigned crudely. Nicotine—the named psychoactive component—became the symbol of the harm, even though the damage came from smoke.
Once that association formed, it hardened into dogma.
How Caffeine Escaped
Caffeine followed a very different cultural path. Coffee and tea entered global life through institutions of respectability. Coffeehouses in the Ottoman Empire and Europe became centers of commerce and debate. Tea was woven into domestic ritual, empire, and gentility.
Crucially, caffeine was never bound to a lethal delivery system. No one inhaled burning coffee leaves. There was no delayed epidemic waiting to be discovered.
As industrial capitalism expanded, caffeine became a productivity tool. Coffee breaks were institutionalized. Tea fueled factory schedules and office routines. By the 20th century, caffeine was no longer seen as a drug at all but as a necessity of modern life.
Its downsides—dependence, sleep disruption, anxiety—were normalized or joked about. In recent decades, branding completed the transformation. Coffee became lifestyle. The stimulant disappeared behind aesthetics and identity.
The Class Divide in Addiction
The difference between caffeine and nicotine is not just historical. It is social.
Caffeine use is public, aesthetic, and professionally coded. Carrying a coffee cup signals busyness, productivity, and belonging in the middle class. Nicotine use—even in clean, low-risk forms—is discreet. It is not aestheticized. It is associated with coping rather than ambition.
Addictions favored by elites are rebranded as habits or wellness tools. Addictions associated with stress, manual labor, or marginal populations are framed as moral failings. This is why caffeine is indulgence and nicotine is degeneracy, even when the physiological effects are similar.
Where Public Health Went Wrong
Public health messaging relies on simplification. “Smoking kills” was effective and true. But over time, simplification hardened into distortion.
“Smoking kills” became “Nicotine is addictive,” which slid into “Nicotine is harmful,” and eventually into claims that there is “No safe level.” Dose, delivery, and comparative risk disappeared from the conversation.
Institutions now struggle to reverse course. Admitting that nicotine is not the primary harm agent would require acknowledging decades of misleading communication. It would require distinguishing adult use from youth use. It would require nuance.
Bureaucracies are bad at nuance.
So nicotine remains frozen at its worst historical moment: the age of the cigarette.
Why This Matters
This is not an academic debate. Millions of smokers could dramatically reduce their health risks by switching to non-combustion nicotine products. Countries that have allowed this—most notably Sweden—have seen smoking rates and tobacco-related mortality collapse. Countries that stigmatize or ban these alternatives preserve cigarette dominance.
At the same time, caffeine consumption continues to rise, including among adolescents, with little moral panic. Energy drinks are aggressively marketed. Sleep disruption and anxiety are treated as lifestyle issues, not public health emergencies.
The asymmetry is revealing.
Coffee as the Model Addiction
Caffeine succeeded culturally because it aligned with power. It supported work, not resistance. It fit office life. It could be branded as refinement. It never challenged institutional authority.
Nicotine, especially when used by working-class populations, became associated with stress relief, nonconformity, and failure to comply. That symbolism persisted long after the smoke could be removed.
Addictions are not judged by chemistry. They are judged by who uses them and whether they fit prevailing moral narratives.
Coffee passed the test. Nicotine did not.
The Core Error
The central mistake is confusing a molecule with a method. Nicotine did not cause the smoking epidemic. Combustion did. Once that distinction is restored, much of modern tobacco policy looks incoherent. Low-risk behaviors are treated as moral threats, while higher-risk behaviors are tolerated because they are culturally embedded.
This is not science. It is politics dressed up as health.
A Final Thought
If we applied the standards used against nicotine to caffeine, coffee would be regulated like a controlled substance. If we applied the standards used for caffeine to nicotine, pouches and vaping would be treated as unremarkable adult choices.
The rational approach is obvious: evaluate substances based on dose, delivery, and actual harm. Stop moralizing chemistry. Stop pretending that all addictions are equal. Nicotine is not harmless. Neither is caffeine. But both are far safer than the stories told about them.
This essay only scratches the surface. The strange moral history of nicotine, caffeine, and acceptable addiction exposes a much larger problem: modern institutions have forgotten how to reason about risk.
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