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Energy

Trump’s plans should prompt Ottawa to reverse damaging policies aimed at oil and gas

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Adding to a long list of costly federal policies that restrict oil and gas development, the Trudeau government plans to cap greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector at 35 per cent below 2019 levels by 2030. This is the exact opposite of what Canada needs, particularly given developments south of the border.

President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear he aims to boost U.S. oil and gas production. Pledging to “drill, drill, drill,” Trump will lift restrictions on liquified natural gas exports, expedite drilling permits, and expand offshore oil production through new lease sales. He also plans to create a National Energy Council to establish U.S. “energy dominance” by “cutting red tape, enhancing private sector investments across all sectors of the economy, and by focusing on innovation over long-standing, but totally unnecessary, regulation.” These changes will lower the cost of oil and gas development in the U.S., which means production will increase and commodity (e.g. crude oil) prices will likely drop in the U.S., Canada and beyond.

Of course, this might lower prices at the pump, lower home-heating bills and bring good news for consumers. But policymakers should understand that lower commodity prices would be a big hit for provincial budgets in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, which rely heavily on resource revenues. In Alberta, for example, a $1 decline in the price of oil results in an estimated $630 million loss to the provincial treasury. The federal government will also take a hit. In 2022 (the latest year of available data), Canada’s oil and gas industry paid the federal government more than $9 billion in corporate income taxes.

And because the Trudeau government has introduced numerous new regulations that restrict oil and gas development, it would be very difficult for the industry to increase sales volume to offset any loss. And according to a recent report by Deloitte, the government’s proposed emissions cap will curtail oil production by 626,000 barrels per day by 2030 or by approximately 10.0 per cent of the expected production—and curtail gas production by approximately 12.0 per cent.

There’s also Bill C-69 (the “Federal Impact Assessment Act”), which overhauled Canada’s federal environmental review process making the regulatory system more complex, uncertain and subjective. And Bill C-48, which bans large oil tankers off British Columbia’s northern coast, presenting another barrier to exporting to Asia. All of these policies make Canada, and particularly energy-producing provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, less attractive for investment.

Indeed, according to the latest survey of oil and gas investors published by the Fraser Institute, 50 per cent of survey respondents said the “stability, consistency and timeliness of environmental regulatory process” in Alberta scared away investment compared to only 11 per cent in Texas. Similarly, 42 per cent of respondents said “uncertainty regarding the administration, interpretation, stability, or enforcement of existing regulations” was a deterrent to investment in Alberta compared to 13 per cent in Texas. And 43 per cent of respondents said the cost of regulatory compliance was a deterrent to investment in Alberta compared to 19 per cent for Texas. Without strong investment, energy-producing provinces won’t be able to increase production.

Trump’s plan to reduce regulations and bolster U.S. oil and gas production will lead to lower prices for oil and gas. While that’s good news for consumers, policymakers should understand how the new normal will impact government coffers. To offset the loss associated with lower prices and lower revenue, provinces need more natural resource development. But that will require the Trudeau government to reverse its damaging policies and abandon its emissions cap plan.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

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Alberta

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith visits Trump at Mar-a-Lago

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From Danielle Smith on X

Over the last 24 hours I had the opportunity to meet President @realdonaldtrump at Mar-a-Lago last night and at his golf club this morning. We had a friendly and constructive conversation during which I emphasized the mutual importance of the U.S. – Canadian energy relationship, and specifically, how hundreds of thousands of American jobs are supported by energy exports from Alberta.

I was also able to have similar discussions with several key allies of the incoming administration and was encouraged to hear their support for a strong energy and security relationship with Canada.

On behalf of Albertans, I will continue to engage in constructive dialogue and diplomacy with the incoming administration and elected federal and state officials from both parties, and will do all I can to further Alberta’s and Canada’s interests.

The United States and Canada are both proud and independent nations with one of the most important security alliances on earth and the largest economic partnership in history. We need to preserve our independence while we grow this critical partnership for the benefit of Canadians and Americans for generations to come.

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Business

ESG Is Collapsing And Net Zero Is Going With It

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By David Blackmon

The chances of achieving the goal of net-zero by 2050 are basically net zero

Just a few years ago, ESG was all the rage in the banking and investing community as globalist governments in the western world focused on a failing attempt to subsidize an energy transition into reality. The strategy was to try to strangle fossil fuel industries by denying them funding for major projects, with major ESG-focused institutional investors like BlackRock and State Street, and big banks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs leveraging their control of trillions of dollars in capital to lead the cause.

But a funny thing happened on the way to a green Nirvana: It turned out that the chosen rent-seeking industries — wind, solar and electric vehicles — are not the nifty plug-and-play solutions they had been cracked up to be.

Even worse, the advancement of new technologies and increased mining of cryptocurrencies created enormous new demand for electricity, resulting in heavy new demand for finding new sources of fossil fuels to keep the grid running and people moving around in reliable cars.

In other words, reality butted into the green narrative, collapsing the foundations of the ESG movement. The laws of physics, thermodynamics and unanticipated consequences remain laws, not mere suggestions.

Making matters worse for the ESG giants, Texas and other states passed laws disallowing any of these firms who use ESG principles to discriminate against their important oil, gas and coal industries from investing in massive state-governed funds. BlackRock and others were hit with sanctions by Texas in 2023. More recently, Texas and 10 other states sued Blackrock and other big investment houses for allegedly violating anti-trust laws.

As the foundations of the ESG movement collapse, so are some of the institutions that sprang up around it. The United Nations created one such institution, the “Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative,” whose participants maintain pledges to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and adhere to detailed plans to reach that goal.

The problem with that is there is now a growing consensus that a) the forced march to a green energy transition isn’t working and worse, that it can’t work, and b) the chances of achieving the goal of net-zero by 2050 are basically net zero. There is also a rising consensus among energy companies of a pressing need to prioritize matters of energy security over nebulous emissions reduction goals that most often constitute poor deployments of capital. Even as the Biden administration has ramped up regulations and subsidies to try to force its transition, big players like ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, and Shell have all redirected larger percentages of their capital budgets away from investments in carbon reduction projects back into their core oil-and-gas businesses.

The result of this confluence of factors and events has been a recent rush by big U.S. banks and investment houses away from this UN-run alliance. In just the last two weeks, the parade away from net zero was led by major banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and, most recently, JP Morgan. On Thursday, the New York Post reported that both BlackRock and State Street, a pair of investment firms who control trillions of investor dollars (BlackRock alone controls more than $10 trillion) are on the brink of joining the flood away from this increasingly toxic philosophy.

In June, 2023, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink made big news when told an audience at the Aspen Ideas Festival in Aspen, Colorado that he is “ashamed of being part of this [ESG] conversation.” He almost immediately backed away from that comment, restating his dedication to what he called “conscientious capitalism.” The takeaway for most observers was that Fink might stop using the term ESG in his internal and external communications but would keep right on engaging in his discriminatory practices while using a different narrative to talk about it.

But this week’s news about BlackRock and the other big firms feels different. Much has taken place in the energy space over the last 18 months, none of it positive for the energy transition or the net-zero fantasy. Perhaps all these big banks and investment funds are awakening to the reality that it will take far more than devising a new way of talking about the same old nonsense concepts to repair the damage that has already been done to the world’s energy system.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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