Energy
Transmountain Pipeline Expansion Project a success?
From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
The Transmountain Mountain Pipeline expansion project (TMEP) was completed on May 01, 2024. Its startup the following month ended an eleven-year saga of tectonic federal energy policy initiatives, climate change requirements, federal regulatory restructuring, and indigenous reconciliation. That it was finished at all is a triumph, but there was muted celebration.
The original proponent for TMEP was Kinder Morgan (KM), who filed its application with the federal energy regulator in 2013. The expansion would be constructed in the existing right of way of the existing pipeline and increase capacity from 300,000 barrels of oil and refined products to 890,000 barrels of oil per day. This included expansion of the existing dock and loading facilities. Protests began virtually the next day. The cost estimate at that time was $7.4 billion for the 1,150 km pipeline and related facilities. The federal regulator and the federal government approved the project in 2016.
Between 2016 and 2018, the intensity of the protests against TMEP and a new government formed in British Columbia that vowed it would use any means possible to make sure TMX would not be built created significant hurdles. KM warned that the protest’s impact and B.C.’s regulatory and legal challenges were creating significant uncertainty, and the project would be delayed at least a year, stopping all non-essential spending. Ultimately KM decided it would not continue with the project because of the increased execution risk and cost to complete the project that the legal and regulatory challenges, and increasing protests, posed.
The project’s shelving by KM led to the federal government acquiring all the Kinder Morgan assets, including TM for $4.7 billion in 2018. Construction then began in 2019. The execution risks remained the same with the legal and regulatory challenges. They were compounded by a legal challenge to the substance of the federal government’s consultation with indigenous people, which was their constitutional duty. The courts agreed that the federal government had not met its constitutional duty to consult and ordered that it be redone. This led to further delays and in 2020 the cost estimate increased to $12.6 billion, then increased again to $21.4 billion in 2022. Ultimately, the federal regulator imposed 157 conditions on TMEP that it had to meet before it could operate.
COVID, extensive flooding and regulatory delays led to a further cost increase up to $30.9 billion in 2023. The final updated cost increased to $34 billion in 2024 due to labour costs, inflation, and materials delays.
The foregoing “Coles notes” version of events sets out the challenges endured by TMX as of Thursday, May 23, 2024. It also highlights that delays in a major project like TMEP have a massive impact on costs. But what gets lost in all this is that in 2013 KM, a public company, made a commercial decision to proceed with the project. There was and still is a huge market pull for the pipeline and the incremental oil volumes. There is huge economic and strategic value for Canada that will benefit all sectors of the economy and indigenous communities, who will most likely end with significant pipeline ownership.
Market access for Canada’s oil production in the Pacific markets will change the oil trading dynamics and value for Canadian production. Canada has the third largest oil reserves in the world. Canada is among the best in its class for environmental, safety, social and governance of its energy production. Canada is also among the best in pipeline construction and safety. So, who best to execute a monumental project like TMX?
We need to reflect and admire the skill, diligence, and perseverance of everyone involved with bringing to fruition TMX as a world class, state of the art major piece of energy infrastructure.
Yes, TMX is a success but the process through which it had to persevere was a failure and we should reflect and learn from it. In the end, despite the final cost, Canada will reap the economic benefits from TMX for decades because the world needs oil and Canada has lots of it.
Chris Bloomer is a board member of FCPP and the former president and CEO of the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association. He has held senior executive positions in the energy industry in Canada and internationally.
From the Fraser Institute
After accounting for backup, energy storage and associated indirect costs—estimated solar power costs skyrocket from US$36 per megawatt hour (MWh) to as high as US$1,548, and wind generation costs increase from US$40 to up to US$504 per MWh.
At a recent energy conference in Houston, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Trump administration will end the Biden administration’s “irrational, quasi-religious policies on climate change that imposed endless sacrifices on our citizens.” He added that “Natural gas is responsible for 43 per cent of U.S. electricity production,” and beyond the obvious scale and cost problems, there’s “simply no physical way that wind, solar and batteries could replace the myriad uses of natural gas.”
In other words, as a federal election looms, once again the United States is diverging from Canada when it comes to energy policy.
Indeed, wind power is particularly unattractive to Wright because of its “incredibly high prices,” “incredibly huge investment” and “large footprint on the local communities,” which make it unattractive to people living nearby. Globally, Wright observes, “Natural gas currently supplies 25 per cent of raw energy globally, before it is converted into electricity or some other use. Wind and solar only supply about 3 per cent.”
And he’s right. Renewables are likely unable, physically or economically, to replace natural gas power production to meet current or future needs for affordable, abundant and reliable energy.
In a recent study published by the Fraser Institute, for example, we observed that meeting Canada’s predicted electricity demand through 2050 using only wind power (with natural gas discouraged under current Canadian climate policies) would require the construction of approximately 575 wind-power installations, each the size of Quebec’s Seigneurie de Beaupré wind farm, over 25 years. However, with a construction timeline of two years per project, this would equate to 1,150 construction years. This would also require more than one million hectares of land—an area nearly 14.5 times the size of Calgary.
Solar power did not fare much better. According to the study, to meet Canada’s predicted electricity demand through 2050 with solar-power generation would require the construction of 840 solar-power generation stations the size of Alberta’s Travers Solar Project. At a two-year construction time per facility, this adds up to 1,680 construction years to accomplish.
And at what cost? While proponents often claim that wind and solar sources are cheaper than fossil fuels, they ignore the costs of maintaining backup power to counter the unreliability of wind and solar power generation. A recent study published in Energy, a peer-reviewed energy and engineering journal, found that—after accounting for backup, energy storage and associated indirect costs—estimated solar power costs skyrocket from US$36 per megawatt hour (MWh) to as high as US$1,548, and wind generation costs increase from US$40 to up to US$504 per MWh.
The outlook for Canada’s switch to renewables is also dire. TD Bank estimated that replacing existing gas generators with renewables (such as solar and wind) in Ontario could increase average electricity costs by 20 per cent by 2035 (compared to 2021 costs). In Alberta, electricity prices would increase by up to 66 per cent by 2035 compared to a scenario without changes.
Under Canada’s current greenhouse gas (GHG) regulatory regime, natural gas is heavily disfavoured as a potential fuel for electricity production. The Trudeau government’s Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) would begin curtailing the use of natural gas beginning in 2035, leading largely to a cessation of natural gas power generation by 2050. Under CER and Ottawa’s “net-zero 2050” GHG emission framework, Canada will be wedded to a quixotic mission to displace affordable reliable natural gas power-generation with expensive unreliable renewables that are likely unable to meet expected future electricity demand.
With a federal election looming, Canada’s policymakers should pay attention to new U.S. energy policy on natural gas, and pull back from our headlong rush into renewable power. To avoid calamity, the next federal government should scrap the Trudeau-era CER and reconsider the entire “net-zero 2050” agenda.
Kenneth P. Green
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
MxM News
Quick Hit:
President Donald Trump is taking decisive action to strengthen America’s energy sector, set to meet with top oil executives next week at the White House. The 47th president, who has prioritized energy independence and economic growth, is working to expand domestic oil and gas production while countering foreign market pressures and trade challenges. Industry leaders recognize Trump’s commitment to unleashing U.S. energy dominance, a stark contrast to the regulatory stranglehold of the Biden years.
Key Details:
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Trump’s upcoming meeting with oil and gas leaders will be his first major sit-down with the industry since his second inauguration, reinforcing his commitment to energy independence.
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The president’s policies have already slashed regulations and boosted U.S. energy production, but industry leaders seek further collaboration to ensure continued growth.
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While some executives have voiced concerns over crude price fluctuations, Trump remains focused on lowering energy costs for American consumers while keeping the industry thriving.
Diving Deeper:
President Trump has long championed American energy as the backbone of economic prosperity and national security. Unlike his predecessor, who waged a war on fossil fuels in favor of radical climate policies, Trump has embraced U.S. oil and gas, calling it “liquid gold” and positioning it as a cornerstone of his administration’s economic agenda.
The meeting, set to include top oil executives and members of the American Petroleum Institute, will focus on advancing U.S. energy production. Trump’s newly formed National Energy Dominance Council, led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, will also play a key role in shaping policy discussions.
Industry leaders like Harold Hamm of Continental Resources and Kelcy Warren of Energy Transfer LP, both of whom backed Trump’s 2024 campaign, recognize the president’s unwavering support for the oil and gas sector. Trump’s administration has already implemented critical reforms to streamline permitting, cut bureaucratic red tape, and expand drilling opportunities—moves that starkly contrast with the Biden administration’s hostility toward domestic production.
Despite global economic factors influencing oil prices—such as increased OPEC+ output and weak Chinese demand—Trump’s policies have laid the groundwork for sustained industry success. While some executives argue that crude prices must remain above $80 per barrel for optimal production, Trump’s focus remains on ensuring affordable energy for American families and businesses.
Trade policy has also been a point of discussion, with some in the industry concerned about Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are critical for drilling operations. However, Trump has consistently prioritized fair trade and American manufacturing, refusing to allow foreign competitors to undermine U.S. industry. Unlike the Biden administration, which caved to globalist interests, Trump is leveraging tariffs as a tool to strengthen domestic production.
Bethany Williams, spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, emphasized Trump’s impact: “President Trump’s energy agenda has set our nation on a path toward energy dominance. We appreciate the opportunity to discuss how American oil and natural gas are driving economic growth, strengthening our national security, and supporting consumers with the president and his team.”
As Trump continues to roll back Biden-era climate mandates and prioritize U.S. energy independence, his administration is making clear that American oil and gas will once again lead the global market. With the full backing of industry leaders, Trump is proving that energy dominance isn’t just a slogan—it’s a reality under his leadership.
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