National
The State of Confederation: Provinces are pushing back against federal overreach
News release from Project Confederation
Canada’s recent federal election has left many Canadians uncertain about the future.
With the Liberals back in power, the old Ottawa-centric mindset hasn’t disappeared.
But the ground is shifting.
At Project Confederation, we believe this is a pivotal moment.
Across the country, provinces are making moves – some bold, others subtle – to assert their jurisdiction, secure their economic futures, and push back against federal overreach.
From new trade corridors to critical minerals strategies to court battles over emissions caps, the fight for a stronger, freer Confederation is alive and evolving.
Clearly, the calls for real reform – for a rebalancing of powers between Ottawa and the provinces – aren’t going away.
If anything, the chances of significant changes have improved.
But, if the provinces want change, they’re going to have to lead it.
Which is why now is the perfect time to take stock of where each province stands.
So, let’s take a look at the State of Confederation in 2025, breaking down the positions each province has taken since the election, and highlighting the progress and problems we see in 2025 and beyond:
British Columbia
BC Premier David Eby has outlined several key priorities for the province now that the election campaign is over.
First, he emphasized the importance of removing interprovincial trade barriers, with BC already working on legislation to allow unilateral recognition of other provinces’ standards.
He also highlighted support for the softwood lumber industry, diversifying trade markets, and accelerating natural resource development.
Eby called on Ottawa to ensure fair treatment of BC by ensuring that federal programs and funding are distributed equitably across provinces, particularly comparing BC’s lack of transfer payments with those of other provinces.
Additionally, Eby expressed dissatisfaction with the unequal distribution of federal funds and criticized the current system for its lack of transparency and fairness.
In terms of energy projects, Eby’s government has tabled Bill 15, legislation designed to fast-track infrastructure and clean energy projects in British Columbia, but he’s also said projects won’t get fast-tracked without First Nations’ ownership.
Alberta
Alberta is taking bold steps to assert its rights and push for a more equitable deal with Ottawa.
In a recent address, Premier Danielle Smith announced the need for an “Alberta Accord” that would seek a guarantee of access to tidewater for energy exports, the repeal overreaching federal policies such as the clean electricity regulations and the oil and gas production cap, and demand equalization payments that reflect Alberta’s contributions to the Canadian economy.
Premier Smith’s address also acknowledged the growing movement for Alberta’s independence, recognizing that the province may explore the possibility of separation if Ottawa continues to ignore its demands.
Smith’s government has recently lowered the signature threshold for citizen-initiated referendums, potentially setting the stage for a referendum on separation in 2026 if enough signatures are gathered.
By opening the door for this vote, Alberta is sending a clear message to Ottawa: give the province a real deal or risk facing a more drastic path.
To ensure that Alberta’s voices are heard, Premier Smith announced the Alberta Next panel, a province-wide engagement initiative designed to give citizens the opportunity to share their frustrations and ideas for the province’s future.
This panel will host town halls and public consultations, with the possibility that the most popular proposals could make their way onto a province-wide referendum ballot in 2026.
Saskatchewan
Premier Scott Moe has been vocal about the need to remove trade barriers, including US and Chinese tariffs.
He released a list of 10 policy changes he says the federal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney must make to reset its relationship with Saskatchewan.
Key demands include negotiating to lift Chinese tariffs on Canadian agricultural exports like canola and peas, which were imposed in retaliation for Canada putting tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
Moe also wants Ottawa to scrap the federal industrial carbon tax and clean electricity regulations, reform bail laws and increase penalties for drug offences, expand pipeline and export infrastructure, and reduce federal red tape that he says infringes on provincial jurisdiction.
He emphasized that quick federal action on these issues would signal a more positive relationship than under the previous Trudeau government.
Premier Moe’s government has also been active in pushing back against federal policies that it believes undermine Saskatchewan’s energy sector.
In 2022, the province convened an Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal to evaluate the federal Impact Assessment Act and the oil and gas emissions cap, both of which were rejected as detrimental to Saskatchewan’s energy growth, and these remain contentious.
Manitoba
Premier Wab Kinew of Manitoba recently wrote to the federal government highlighting some key “nation-building” projects that the province wants federal support for.
The first project, the One Canada Trade Corridor, aims to enhance trade through the Port of Churchill and expand Canada’s energy corridors.
Kinew also called for joint investment in the Prairie Agriculture Innovation and Export Diversification project to help Western farmers access new markets through innovation centers.
The Canada’s Trucking Corridor project seeks to twin the Trans-Canada Highway through Manitoba, improving trade and road safety.
Kinew also requested federal investment in northern Manitoba’s infrastructure to support the development of Critical Minerals.
While many of these proposals amount to pitches for federal funding, it’s still good to see support for these sorts of projects from a provincial government.
Manitoba has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ontario to reduce interprovincial trade barriers and boost economic cooperation.
The agreement focuses on harmonizing regulations, improving labour mobility, and recognizing professional credentials more easily – particularly for health-care workers and tradespeople – allowing them to begin working while their qualifications are processed.
Ontario
Ontario is taking steps to break down interprovincial trade barriers, including introducing the Protect Ontario through Free Trade within Canada Act, 2025.
Premier Doug Ford, along with New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt and Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston, announced agreements to enhance trade between their provinces.
Ford and Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew have also signed a memorandum of understanding to reduce interprovincial trade and regulatory barriers.
Key initiatives include harmonizing regulations, improving direct-to-consumer alcohol sales, and facilitating the recognition of professional credentials to allow healthcare professionals and tradespeople to work across provincial borders while their qualifications are processed.
Ford has also called for the repeal of Bill C-69 and voiced support for building new pipelines across Canada, though with a caveat that he’ll only support them if they use Ontario-made steel.
Ford criticized past political inaction on pipelines, arguing it has made Canada too dependent on the United States for energy security.
Quebec
Quebec has long positioned itself as a defender of provincial jurisdiction, particularly when it comes to language, culture, and immigration.
But, at least at the federal level, the Bloc Québécois has taken a firm stance against any project to expand a pipeline across the country, pledging to block such initiatives in Parliament.
Provincially, however, the picture is a bit more nuanced.
Recently, Premier François Legault expressed renewed openness to pipeline projects, particularly a potential route through northern Quebec to the port of Sept-Îles, citing shifting public attitudes due to Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
He argued that Quebecers are increasingly supportive of alternative export routes for Alberta oil to bypass US control and reach European markets.
The Quebec government has signalled it may reconsider energy projects like LNG Quebec and Energy East, indicating they are open to reviewing such proposals based on their merits.
A recent Québec Solidaire motion in the National Assembly, which called on the provincial government to oppose any pipeline development on Quebec soil, was defeated with opposition from both the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and the Quebec Liberals.
While Québec Solidaire and the Parti Québécois framed pipelines as environmental threats linked to fossil fuels, the Quebec Liberals argued that pipelines are simply a mode of transport and could be used for non-fossil materials like hydrogen or salt water.
Legault emphasized the need to balance environmental concerns with economic priorities, noting that any project would still undergo environmental assessment.
Quebec is also taking some strange – but still positive – steps to reduce interprovincial trade barriers by withdrawing at least five of its exemptions to the Canadian Free Trade Agreement.
These changes will make it easier for individuals to register racehorses, become funeral directors, or work as real estate brokers in Quebec without meeting residency or office requirements.
Additionally, board members of Quebec’s ferry authority will no longer need to live in the province.
The provincial government may remove more exemptions in the future as part of a broader effort to encourage internal trade.
New Brunswick
New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt took a more literal approach to promoting interprovincial trade by mailing a selection of local New Brunswick products to other premiers across Canada.
Holt has also signed trade and labour mobility agreements with Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador, with similar deals in progress with Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan.
Her government is also working with Atlantic premiers to create a regional free-trade zone.
Unfortunately, key protectionist policies remain in place in New Brunswick – Holt has avoided tackling major restrictions in sectors like forestry and seafood.
For example, Crown wood must still be sold to local mills, shielding the province’s largest industry from outside competition.
On seafood, the message is a little more positive.
Current rules don’t force products to be processed in New Brunswick, but an exemption still exists that would allow future governments to impose such a requirement.
Holt says she’ll remove that exemption – but only for provinces that do the same, which many, like Newfoundland and Labrador, have refused to do – at least for now.
Prince Edward Island
Prince Edward Island has introduced the Interprovincial Trade & Mobility Act, aimed at eliminating trade and labour mobility barriers with other provinces.
Premier Rob Lantz presented the bill in the legislature, following a similar initiative in Nova Scotia, with PEI expected to be the first province to reciprocate.
The bill proposes accepting provincial inspections and standards for goods from participating jurisdictions and setting up expedited licensing for regulated professions, with a 10-business-day turnaround time for certifications.
The legislation, which will only apply to jurisdictions that reciprocate, aims to foster collaboration between provinces and boost the economy by making the workforce more accessible.
However, it will not apply to regulated health professionals or lawyers.
Nova Scotia
Premier Tim Houston introduced the Free Trade and Mobility within Canada Act back in February, well before the federal election.
The bill allows goods and services from provinces or territories with similar legislation to be treated equally in Nova Scotia, eliminating redundant fees and testing.
It also enables certified professionals from those jurisdictions to work in Nova Scotia without additional licensing.
However, the bill excludes Canada’s supply management system.
Nova Scotia also has some gripes with the federal government.
The Province is taking Ottawa to court over who should pay to upgrade the dikes protecting the Isthmus of Chignecto, the land link between Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
The Province argues that Ottawa bears full responsibility for the $650 million project because the infrastructure protects federally regulated trade and communications links, including highways, railways, and power lines.
The federal government has agreed to cover only half the cost, claiming the dikes primarily serve agricultural land, a shared jurisdiction.
Houston is also refocusing his government’s agenda on natural resource development to address potential revenue threats from US tariffs, slowing population growth, and uncertain federal transfers.
He suggested reconsidering long-standing bans on uranium mining, fracking, and oil and gas exploration on Georges Bank, arguing that excessive restrictions have hindered prosperity.
In a letter to caucus members, he criticized past governments for lacking the courage to act and pledged to reverse sector-wide bans in favour of more balanced policymaking.
Newfoundland and Labrador
Newfoundland and Labrador is also unhappy with the current equalization program.
They argue that it shortchanges smaller provinces, particularly in the Atlantic region.
The Province says that the program fails to account for unique challenges such as the high cost of delivering services to remote, sparsely populated areas and penalizes resource-rich provinces like Newfoundland for developing offshore oil.
Newfoundland and Labrador wants fairer distribution that reflects the actual needs of all provinces, rather than perpetuating a system that disproportionately benefits the larger ones.
They are currently challenging the federal government’s equalization formula in court, after the Trudeau Liberals extended the current formula through 2029 without addressing the Province’s concerns.
We hope you’ve appreciated this summary of the State of Confederation in 2025.
The path to a stronger, freer, and more balanced Confederation isn’t going to be charted in Ottawa – it’s going to be led by the provinces and demanded by the people.
But that only happens if we keep up the pressure.
At Project Confederation, we’re working every day to hold governments accountable, push for structural reform, and empower citizens like you to fight for a better deal for your province.
We’re building momentum – province by province – but we can’t do it alone.
If you believe in a Canada where provinces are respected, where local priorities come first, and where Ottawa doesn’t get the final say on everything, please consider making a donation today:
Let’s make Confederation work – the way it was meant to.
Regards,
– The Project Confederation Team
Alberta
Punishing Alberta Oil Production: The Divisive Effect of Policies For Carney’s “Decarbonized Oil”
From Energy Now
By Ron Wallace
The federal government has doubled down on its commitment to “responsibly produced oil and gas”. These terms are apparently carefully crafted to maintain federal policies for Net Zero. These policies include a Canadian emissions cap, tanker bans and a clean electricity mandate.
Following meetings in Saskatoon in early June between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canadian provincial and territorial leaders, the federal government expressed renewed interest in the completion of new oil pipelines to reduce reliance on oil exports to the USA while providing better access to foreign markets. However Carney, while suggesting that there is “real potential” for such projects nonetheless qualified that support as being limited to projects that would “decarbonize” Canadian oil, apparently those that would employ carbon capture technologies. While the meeting did not result in a final list of potential projects, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said that this approach would constitute a “grand bargain” whereby new pipelines to increase oil exports could help fund decarbonization efforts. But is that true and what are the implications for the Albertan and Canadian economies?
The federal government has doubled down on its commitment to “responsibly produced oil and gas”. These terms are apparently carefully crafted to maintain federal policies for Net Zero. These policies include a Canadian emissions cap, tanker bans and a clean electricity mandate. Many would consider that Canadians, especially Albertans, should be wary of these largely undefined announcements in which Ottawa proposes solely to determine projects that are “in the national interest.”
The federal government has tabled legislation designed to address these challenges with Bill C-5: An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility Act and the Building Canada Act (the One Canadian Economy Act). Rather than replacing controversial, and challenged, legislation like the Impact Assessment Act, the Carney government proposes to add more legislation designed to accelerate and streamline regulatory approvals for energy and infrastructure projects. However, only those projects that Ottawa designates as being in the national interest would be approved. While clearer, shorter regulatory timelines and the restoration of the Major Projects Office are also proposed, Bill C-5 is to be superimposed over a crippling regulatory base.
It remains to be seen if this attempt will restore a much-diminished Canadian Can-Do spirit for economic development by encouraging much-needed, indeed essential interprovincial teamwork across shared jurisdictions. While the Act’s proposed single approval process could provide for expedited review timelines, a complex web of regulatory processes will remain in place requiring much enhanced interagency and interprovincial coordination. Given Canada’s much-diminished record for regulatory and policy clarity will this legislation be enough to persuade the corporate and international capital community to consider Canada as a prime investment destination?
As with all complex matters the devil always lurks in the details. Notably, these federal initiatives arrive at a time when the Carney government is facing ever-more pressing geopolitical, energy security and economic concerns. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development predicts that Canada’s economy will grow by a dismal one per cent in 2025 and 1.1 per cent in 2026 – this at a time when the global economy is predicted to grow by 2.9 per cent.
It should come as no surprise that Carney’s recent musing about the “real potential” for decarbonized oil pipelines have sparked debate. The undefined term “decarbonized”, is clearly aimed directly at western Canadian oil production as part of Ottawa’s broader strategy to achieve national emissions commitments using costly carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects whose economic viability at scale has been questioned. What might this mean for western Canadian oil producers?
The Alberta Oil sands presently account for about 58% of Canada’s total oil output. Data from December 2023 show Alberta producing a record 4.53 million barrels per day (MMb/d) as major oil export pipelines including Trans Mountain, Keystone and the Enbridge Mainline operate at high levels of capacity. Meanwhile, in 2023 eastern Canada imported on average about 490,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) at a cost estimated at CAD $19.5 billion. These seaborne shipments to major refineries (like New Brunswick’s Irving Refinery in Saint John) rely on imported oil by tanker with crude oil deliveries to New Brunswick averaging around 263,000 barrels per day. In 2023 the estimated total cost to Canada for imported crude oil was $19.5 billion with oil imports arriving from the United States (72.4%), Nigeria (12.9%), and Saudi Arabia (10.7%). Since 1988, marine terminals along the St. Lawrence have seen imports of foreign oil valued at more than $228 billion while the Irving Oil refinery imported $136 billion from 1988 to 2020.
What are the policy and cost implication of Carney’s call for the “decarbonization” of western Canadian produced, oil? It implies that western Canadian “decarbonized” oil would have to be produced and transported to competitive world markets under a material regulatory and financial burden. Meanwhile, eastern Canadian refiners would be allowed to import oil from the USA and offshore jurisdictions free from any comparable regulatory burdens. This policy would penalize, and makes less competitive, Canadian producers while rewarding offshore sources. A federal regulatory requirement to decarbonize western Canadian crude oil production without imposing similar restrictions on imported oil would render the One Canadian Economy Act moot and create two market realities in Canada – one that favours imports and that discourages, or at very least threatens the competitiveness of, Canadian oil export production.
Ron Wallace is a former Member of the National Energy Board.
From the Fraser Institute
Canadians continue to endure long wait times for health care. And while waiting for care can obviously be detrimental to your health and wellbeing, it can also hurt your pocketbook.
In 2024, the latest year of available data, the median wait—from referral by a family doctor to treatment by a specialist—was 30 weeks (including 15 weeks waiting for treatment after seeing a specialist). And last year, an estimated 1.5 million Canadians were waiting for care.
It’s no wonder Canadians are frustrated with the current state of health care.
Again, long waits for care adversely impact patients in many different ways including physical pain, psychological distress and worsened treatment outcomes as lengthy waits can make the treatment of some problems more difficult. There’s also a less-talked about consequence—the impact of health-care waits on the ability of patients to participate in day-to-day life, work and earn a living.
According to a recent study published by the Fraser Institute, wait times for non-emergency surgery cost Canadian patients $5.2 billion in lost wages in 2024. That’s about $3,300 for each of the 1.5 million patients waiting for care. Crucially, this estimate only considers time at work. After also accounting for free time outside of work, the cost increases to $15.9 billion or more than $10,200 per person.
Of course, some advocates of the health-care status quo argue that long waits for care remain a necessary trade-off to ensure all Canadians receive universal health-care coverage. But the experience of many high-income countries with universal health care shows the opposite.
Despite Canada ranking among the highest spenders (4th of 31 countries) on health care (as a percentage of its economy) among other developed countries with universal health care, we consistently rank among the bottom for the number of doctors, hospital beds, MRIs and CT scanners. Canada also has one of the worst records on access to timely health care.
So what do these other countries do differently than Canada? In short, they embrace the private sector as a partner in providing universal care.
Australia, for instance, spends less on health care (again, as a percentage of its economy) than Canada, yet the percentage of patients in Australia (33.1 per cent) who report waiting more than two months for non-emergency surgery was much higher in Canada (58.3 per cent). Unlike in Canada, Australian patients can choose to receive non-emergency surgery in either a private or public hospital. In 2021/22, 58.6 per cent of non-emergency surgeries in Australia were performed in private hospitals.
But we don’t need to look abroad for evidence that the private sector can help reduce wait times by delivering publicly-funded care. From 2010 to 2014, the Saskatchewan government, among other policies, contracted out publicly-funded surgeries to private clinics and lowered the province’s median wait time from one of the longest in the country (26.5 weeks in 2010) to one of the shortest (14.2 weeks in 2014). The initiative also reduced the average cost of procedures by 26 per cent.
Canadians are waiting longer than ever for health care, and the economic costs of these waits have never been higher. Until policymakers have the courage to enact genuine reform, based in part on more successful universal health-care systems, this status quo will continue to cost Canadian patients.
Mackenzie Moir
Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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