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Daily Caller

The Silly Peak Oil Debate Rages On

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

 

By David Blackmon

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais

Analysts and professionals in the global energy space have long debated the prospects for reaching peak demand for crude oil. It is an issue that has long sparked debate, some of which becomes emotional among highly invested stakeholders on one side or the other.

In recent years, such stakeholders risk developing cases of whiplash when considering the competing perspectives about this “peak oil” matter published by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA has spent the last 12 months predicting an earlier advent of the peak oil phenomenon than pretty much any other experts envision, saying it will come about sometime in this decade, no later than 2030. Not surprisingly, the agency’s analysts doubled down on that projection in its most recent monthly Oil Market Report.

In a section titled “When the Music Stops,” the IEA focused on short-term factors like slowing demand growth in China, where oil consumption has declined year-over-year for the past four months. Noting that Chinese demand growth has slowed to an estimated 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) across 2024, the agency leaned on that data point as a reason to lower its estimated global demand growth to 800,000 bpd.

The same section also pointed to the isolated slowing of U.S. gasoline-deliveries growth in June — a factoid that could simply be statistical noise — as support for its annual growth forecast. But a slowdown in crude demand growth is no surprise, given that economic growth has been slowing throughout 2024. This direct cause-and-effect phenomenon has been a consistent aspect of oil markets across history. It is also a short-term factor whose impact will ultimately be diminished by subsequent events.

In contrast, OPEC’s projections over the past year regarding near-term global demand growth and the anticipated peak in oil demand have reached diametrically opposite conclusions. Last summer, the cartel projected global growth in crude demand for 2024 would be a robust 2.25 million bpd. Slowing economic growth has led OPEC’s analysts to lower that initial prediction over the past two months, but only to 2.1 million bpd — more than double that of both IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Where the concept of peak oil demand is concerned, OPEC has held to an even more oil-bullish stance, stating its projections do not see that threshold being reached anytime during its projection timeframe through 2050. In its annual Global Outlook published last week, OPEC sees oil demand growing by that year to 120 million bpd, a rise of 18 million bpd from current levels.

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais in the forward to the report.

Al Ghais also pointed out the fact that: “Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready, economically competitive, acceptable to consumers and with the right infrastructure in place.” This undeniable reality means that projections of oil demand in the transportation sector being crushed by alternatives like EVs and hydrogen cars are almost certainly overly optimistic. The rapidly faltering market demand for EVs strongly supports that likelihood.

Al Ghais also contends that a “realistic view of demand growth expectations necessitates adequate investments in oil and gas, today, tomorrow, and for many decades into the future.” That contention stands in contrast to the IEA report released in May, 2021, in which IEA Director Fatih Birol urged an immediate halt in all new investments in the finding and development of new oil resources in order to fight climate change. By August of that year, Biral was comically urging oil companies to increase their oil production in order to help re-balance an undersupplied global market.

Episodes like that have led many to question whether IEA bases its projections related to oil markets on data or on wishful thinking. The validity of such questions was only reinforced when Birol announced early this year that the agency’s mission was being expanded into outright advocacy for promoting the energy transition.

So, who is right? We’ll find out in 2030, but the smart money is on the group with billions riding on the answer.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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Instead of innovating themselves, Europeans trying to regulate US companies to death

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By

Envy is an ugly thing — one of the seven deadly sins.

The Europeans have long been dripping with jealousy that American firms dominate the tech sector — cell phones, search engines, social media platforms, AI and robotics.

As a consequence, the U.S. economy as measured by net worth is now 50 percent larger than Europe’s  and even the residents of our poorest states like West Virginia have a higher income than the average European.

One reason: The United States innovates while Europe regulates. Instead of fixing their economies in Euroland, the EU bureaucrats want to kneecap America’s tech success stories with fines and lawsuits and regulatory barbed wire fences to keep American firms from competing on a level playing field.

A case in point is the rash of expensive antitrust lawsuits against Google search engines.

Even worse is that a few years ago the European Union enacted “the Digital Markets Act” under the guise of trying to “ensure contestable and fair markets in the digital sector.”

Whenever government officials talk about promoting “fairness,” it means they are looking for expanding their own power.

Under this Act, Europe’s regulators are seeking to rein in successful technology companies like Apple through a new regulatory principle called “interoperability.”

Interoperability calls for third-party developers throughout the world to be given access to Apple’s private operating systems — iOS and iPadOS. In this framework, Apple is treated like a public utility with features that can be leveraged by other companies.

This is a sore-loser concept. Apple is a highly dynamic company that has achieved its market-leading status by developing wildly popular trailblazing products.

The European regulations, could require iPhones to offer competitor products. This makes as much sense as requiring McDonalds to offer Burger King fries with their “happy meals.”

The iPhone amenities and apps are part of a package deal that have made these devices the most popular in the world with billions of customers. This hardly sounds like monopolistic behavior. For people who don’t like Apple’s aps, there are many other cell phone products, such as Galaxy that consumers can turn to made by T-Mobile, Google, or a handful made in China.

For all the talk about Apple’s monopoly, they now control slightly less than 20% of the global cell-phone market.

Yet Europe’s bureaucrats have declared that Apple cannot charge product developers who are given access to the company’s operating systems. It is like getting to ride the train for free.

Interoperability is a dangerous concept — especially when it comes to security and privacy. Apple places a premium on maintaining the integrity of its devices and protecting its users’ data. But there is no guarantee that third parties given unfettered access to the Apple platform will have the same high standards.

That is going to leave Europe’s users of Apple products at greater risk of getting hacked. The results could be “disastrous,” points out Dirk Auer of the International Center for Law and Economics. “Users’ identity could be leaked, their money stolen, and their data could be compromised.”

Social media companies that want access to Apple’s operating systems could also gain access to I-phone users’ data and information. Apple warns that outsiders could “read on a user’s device all of their messages and emails, see every phone call they make or receive, track every app that they use, scan all of their photos, look at their files and calendar events, log all of their passwords, and more.”

Even Apple doesn’t access this data in order to protect the privacy of their users.

The danger here is that if companies that spend billions of dollars innovating to build a better mousetrap can’t own and control their own products and reap the financial rewards, innovation will be stifled — in which case everyone loses. Sharing patented information with competitors in the name of “fairness” is a socialist idea that has rusted the Eurozone economy.

If Europe wants to get back in the tech game, EU bureaucrats should focus on what made these companies so successful in the first place — and then try to create a public policy environment that will foster innovative companies that can compete and win — rather than run to the courts for protection. Punishing the winners is a good way to keep producing losers.

In the meantime, let’s hope the incoming Trump regulators at the FTC and FCC and the Justice Department defend American companies against aggressive and hostile lawsuits to hobble our made-in-American companies. In other words, put America first and don’t let Europe take a bite out of our Apple.

Stephen Moore is a co-founder of Unleash Prosperity and a co-author of the new book: “The Trump Economic Miracle.”

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Canada Suddenly Says It’ll Buy More US Products After Trump Threatened To Slap It With Tariffs

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Owen Klinsky

Canada’s ambassador to the United States said Monday the country is prepared to purchase more U.S. goods following President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

Trump has repeatedly lamented the trade deficit between the U.S. and its neighbor to the north, threatening to levy a 25% tariff against the country or even annex Canada and make it “the 51st state.” His remarks appear to have already impacted trade relations, with Canada’s Ambassador Kirsten Hillman saying the country is ready to buy more from the United States in order to appease the incoming president, according to an interview she gave to The Associated Press Monday.

“He has a negotiating style which involves positioning himself in the best way he can for discussions,” Hillman told the AP. “We are happy to source what we can from the United States.”

Hillman identified military procurements as a potential category where Canada could increase its consumption of U.S. products, including Canada’s next fleet of submarines: “We have some big military procurements coming up for example, replacing our entire submarine fleet. Maybe those are some purchases that can happen from the U.S.”

 

The U.S. had a nearly $68 billion trade deficit with Canada in 2023, a decrease of $12.2 billion from 2022, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The overall U.S. trade deficit sat at over $770 billion in 2023 — the highest of any country globally.

The ambassador also gave Trump credit for the creation of Canada’s $1 billion-plus border security and immigration plan: “We have moved really quickly, I’ll be honest, because President Trump focused the mind to put together a full package of improvements.”

Border patrol agents apprehended almost 24,000 individuals along the northern border in fiscal year 2024, representing a 140% increase from the year prior, data from the U.S. Customs And Border Protection shows.

“President Trump has promised tariff policies that protect working Americans from the unfair practices of foreign companies and foreign markets,” Trump-Vance Transition Spokesman Brian Hughes told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “As he did in his first term, he will implement economic and trade policies to make life affordable and more prosperous for our nation, while simultaneously leveling the playing field for American manufacturers.”

The Canadian embassy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

 

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