The Next Canadian Federal Election Will Also be a Crucial Energy Issues Election

Since January 6, 2025, when Prime Minister Trudeau announced that he was stepping down as Prime Minister of Canada and announced that the Governor General had granted his request to prorogue Parliament, Canadians have been contemplating the fallout.

Terry Winnitoy, co-founder of EnergyNow.ca in Canada and EnergyNow.com in the US, wisely chose to bring together speakers from provincial and federal governments, as well as energy industry SMEs and an indigenous organization to discuss energy issues that will be part of this year’s 2025 federal election in Canada and crucial to Canada’s energy future; The Federal ‘Energy’ Election ’25 event was held at the Calgary Petroleum Club last week to a packed room.

The Federal ‘Energy’ Election ’25 Panel – From Left to Right : Greg McLean, David Yager, Rebecca Schulz, Kendall Dilling and Dale Swampy

Tracey Bodnarchuk CEO of Canada Powered By Women moderated the leaders’ panel which included Greg McLean Calgary Centre Federal Conservative MP, Rebecca Schulz Alberta Minister of Environment and Protected Areas, David Yager Senior Advisor to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Energy industry Entrepreneur and Author, Kendall Dilling, Pathways Alliance President and previous Cenovus Energy Vice-President- Environment & Regulatory, and Dale Swampy, President and founder of the National Coalition of Chiefs who is a board member and provides advisory services to The Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) and the Business Council of Alberta.

The discussion focused on the critical importance of the upcoming federal election, emphasizing the need for pragmatic, common-sense policies that will shape energy policies for decades to come.

Some of the Key points made by the panel included Canada’s significant role as the fourth-largest oil producer and fifth-largest natural gas producer, contributing 10% to GDP and $200 billion in exports. MP Greg McLean commented on how dramatically MPs in Ottawa have done a 180-degree pivot from their anti-fossil fuel stance of the last ten years.

“What I find ironic is the fact that you’ve got many eastern politicians- federal and provincial that are saying we need to use the oil industry as our trump card, and no pun intended,” McLean said.

“They’re actually trying to say this energy is very important. I can’t tell you how many years and how many speeches I’ve heard in the House of Commons about how we need to do away with this (Oil and Gas) industry as quickly as possible.

A wake-up call has happened. Now we recognize how important this industry is, as far as a job contributor, an economic contributor, and a taxation contributor to the Canadian economy. Now suddenly it’s the most important industry in Canada.”

The panel discussion highlighted the broad impacts of Trump tariffs and the need for pragmatic, common-sense policies that will shape energy policies for decades.

Minister Rebecca Schulz echoed the recent changes in energy discussions.

“Now we have to focus on energy security, affordability, our economy, jobs for everyday people, Schulz said. “We have to talk about that more now than we had in the past – when our federal government only wanted to talk about the environment and emissions. That is not a reasonable, rational conversation now, and it’s not what Canadians want to hear right now.”

She commented that the federal government has been problematic over the 10 years and said it was Premier Danielle Smith’s strong communications, advocacy and presence in the US and across North America – reaching out to policymakers south of the border that contributed to a reprieve in tariffs.

Dave Yager briefly described the market conditions that enabled misguided Federal govt policies over the last ten years.

“There were a lot of trends that took place from 2015 to 2019,” Yager said. “Interest rates were really low. Inflation was really low. They kept up with quantitative easing. The governments looked invincible. Renewables appeared to be penetrating because the cost was buried, and they never really realized what a contribution the collapse of oil prices made in 2015 to keep inflation down.

Why quantitative easing wasn’t inflationary until 2020 had a lot to do with the low price of oil and the low price of natural gas. That’s all changed. It started in 2020 and by 2022 when the Russian tanks went into Ukraine, all of a sudden we’ve got a whole different world. If you look around the world, a lot of people have changed direction. So I think there’s a growing realization that the platform that this government was elected on just doesn’t exist anymore.”

Kendall Dilling added his agreement that we are at “a palpable inflection point”. He saw a silver lining to all the challenges that he views as a wake-up call for Canadians.

“The question is, can we capitalize on it,” Dilling said. “and actually bring some change to fruition before we slide back into complacency?

When we talk about how we respond, there’s no scenario where we don’t remain intrinsically linked to the United States from a supply chain and energy perspective.

But we have become codependent. We slacked on our NATO and border commitments and other things. We’ve decided that only one issue mattered for the last decade, at the expense of the economy and we find ourselves in an unenviable position. Now the opportunity is in front of us to get a national consensus on the importance of the economy and actually drive some change.”

Dale Swampy stated that the Tariff issue has real relevance for the First Nations that the NCC represents as most of those Nations are located in Alberta and fully entrenched in the oil and gas industry.

He sees the importance of the impact on Canada and the U.S. as a driver for diversification to find new markets and he has experience in the fight to get pipeline project approval under the current processes. In 2010, he joined the Indigenous Relations team for the Northern Gateway Pipeline Project as Director of Indigenous Relations for the BC terrestrial region.

He worked with Indigenous community leaders to establish the Northern Gateway Aboriginal Equity Partners group or AEP – a group comprised of 31 Aboriginal community leaders working as part of an unprecedented partnership with Northern Gateway. It was after the cancellation of the project in 2016 that he started the National Coalition of Chiefs (NCC).

“I think it’s more important to understand that we have an opportunity now. It’s been nine years since they cancelled the Northern Gateway project. It’s been nine years since we have had an opportunity like this and can put the idea of building Northern Gateway and Energy East back on the table.

We want to advocate for the possibility of getting Northern Gateway launched again. If we get a First Nation-led project, we will support it. Now we have some leverage and we do have the ability to build it. So we’re working with a lot of the big six oil sands companies to say that we’ll put our name onto this and promote the Northern Gateway project.”

Swampy noted that with regulatory refinements, the pipeline could be built in a much more effective timeline than TMX.

The panel discussed specific projects like LNG expansion and the potential for more First Nations-led initiatives underscoring the urgency of rebuilding trust and attracting international capital to drive economic growth.

The discussion highlighted the challenges faced by Canada’s resource-based industries due to investor impatience with investors preferring more predictable returns, and favouring projects in the US (which are approved and built in much shorter timelines) over Canadian projects like LNG which become mired in regulatory red tape.

The comparison was made that Canada has only two LNG projects under construction compared to the US’s 25 billion cubic feet a day since 2015.

The panel addressed the current political instability with a parliament shutdown and a looming election. They emphasized the need for balanced policies that consider economic growth, energy security, and environmental responsibility but also shorten the overwrought regulatory process to get projects approved and built. They called for better communication and advocacy, particularly through social media, to influence public perception and policy.

MP Greg McLean summed up much of the sentiments of the panel saying:

“Oil is still going to be oil. Getting Canadian oil consumed in Canada, and getting a pipeline all the way through to New Brunswick makes all the sense in the world. Finally, the politicians are there. So maybe one of the things that we’ve seen in the last while about what the president of the United States has put on our table is the opportunity to cooperate to get the Canadian economy working coast to coast.”

Maureen McCall is an energy professional and Senior Fellow at the Frontier Center For Public Policy who writes on issues affecting the energy industry.

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Middle East clash sends oil prices soaring

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Middle East clash sends oil prices soaring

Published on June 17, 2025

Todayville

This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Rashid Husain Syed

The Israel-Iran conflict just flipped the script on falling oil prices, pushing them up fast, and that spike could hit your wallet at the pump

Oil prices are no longer being driven by supply and demand. The sudden escalation of military conflict between Israel and Iran has shattered market stability, reversing earlier forecasts and injecting dangerous uncertainty into the global energy system.

What just days ago looked like a steady decline in oil prices has turned into a volatile race upward, with threats of extreme price spikes looming.

For Canadians, these shifts are more than numbers on a commodities chart. Oil is a major Canadian export, and price swings affect everything from
provincial revenues, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan, to what you pay at the pump. A sustained spike in global oil prices could also feed inflation, driving up the cost of living across the country.

Until recently, optimism over easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China had analysts projecting oil could fall below US$50 a barrel this year. Brent crude traded at US$66.82, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near US$65, with demand growth sluggish, the slowest since the pandemic.

That outlook changed dramatically when Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets and Tehran’s counterattack, including hits on Israel’s Haifa refinery, sent shockwaves through global markets. Within hours, Brent crude surged to US$74.23, and WTI climbed to US$72.98, despite later paring back overnight gains of over 13 per cent. The conflict abruptly reversed the market outlook and reintroduced a risk premium amid fears of disruption in the world’s critical oil-producing region.

Amid mounting tensions, attention has turned to the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which nearly 20 per cent of the world’s oil ows, including supplies that inuence global and
Canadian fuel prices. While Iran has not yet signalled a closure, the possibility
remains, with catastrophic implications for supply and prices if it occurs.

Analysts have adjusted forecasts accordingly. JPMorgan warns oil could hit US$120 to US$130 per barrel in a worst-case scenario involving military conflict and a disruption of shipments through the strait. Goldman Sachs estimates Brent could temporarily spike above US$90 due to a potential loss of 1.75 million barrels per day of Iranian supply over six months, partially offset by increased OPEC+ output. In a note published Friday morning, Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and his team wrote: “We estimate that Brent jumps to a peak just over US$90 a barrel but declines back to the US$60s in 2026 as Iran supply recovers. Based on our prior analysis, we estimate that oil prices may exceed US$100 a barrel in an extreme tail scenario of an extended disruption.”

Iraq’s foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, has issued a more dire warning: “The Strait of Hormuz might be closed due to the Israel-Iran confrontation, and the world markets could lose millions of barrels of oil per day in supplies. This could result in a price increase of between US$200 and US$300 per barrel.”

During a call with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, Hussein added: “If military operations between Iran and Israel continue, the global market will lose approximately five million barrels per day produced by Iraq and the Gulf states.”

Such a supply shock would worsen inflation, strain economies, and hurt both exporters and importers, including vulnerable countries like Iraq.

Despite some analysts holding to base-case forecasts in the low to mid-US$60s for 2025, that optimism now looks fragile. The oil market is being held hostage by geopolitics, sidelining fundamentals.

What happens next depends on whether the region plunges deeper into conflict or pulls back. But for now, one thing is clear: the calm is over, and oil is once again at the mercy of war.

Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.

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Carney’s Honeymoon Phase Enters a ‘Make-or-Break’ Week

Published on June 16, 2025

Todayville

From the National Citizens Coalition

The National Citizens Coalition (NCC) is sounding the alarm on a critical week for the Carney government, which, despite enjoying an unearned honeymoon in the polls, has delivered zero results for everyday Canadians. As the G7 summit looms large and the House of Commons prepares to adjourn, this is a make-or-break moment for Prime Minister Mark Carney to prove his government is more than empty promises. Canadians are watching, and the NCC is calling out the glaring failures that threaten a grim summer of economic decline, and continued crime, chaos, and rising unemployment.

Housing Minister Gregor Robertson Caught in $10.85 Million Scandal

Recent revelations from Blacklock’s Reporter expose Housing Minister Gregor Robertson’s attempt to conceal $10.85 million in personal property investments during Commons questioning. This shocking lack of transparency from the minister tasked with addressing Canada’s housing crisis raises serious questions about his integrity and ability to prioritize Canadians struggling with skyrocketing costs. While Robertson dodges accountability, and Carney apparently scoffs at providing housing relief to millions suffering under a Liberal-made crisis, young professionals and young families are wondering if they’ll ever have a chance to own a home bigger than Canada’s much-maligned supply of ‘dog-crate condos.’

The NCC demands a full ethics investigation, the resignation of Gregor Robertson — who, as one of the architects of the Vancouver housing crisis, should have never been handed this file to begin with — and immediate action to restore trust in this critical portfolio.

Pipeline Delays and Provincial Obstruction Threaten Economic Growth

The Carney government’s inaction on pipelines is stalling Canada’s economic potential. Despite promises of “nation-building projects,” British Columbia and Quebec continue to block and veto critical energy infrastructure, with Carney failing to assert federal leadership. His vague talk of “consensus” and “decarbonized” barrels has led to zero progress, leaving Alberta’s economy in limbo and Canadians facing higher energy costs. With no clear plan to advance projects, the government is squandering opportunities to create jobs and secure energy sovereignty. The NCC urges Carney to act decisively this week to break the provincial logjam and deliver results.

Immigration Chaos: Lena Diab’s Unchecked Honour System Fails Canadians

Immigration Minister Lena Diab’s reliance on an ‘honour system’ for millions of temporary visitors with expiring visas is a recipe for disaster. As Canada grapples with unsustainable immigration levels, Diab’s apparent plan for millions of temporary workers and failed ‘diploma mill’ attendees assumes compliance without enforcement, ignoring the high-propensity for fraud, and the ongoing and urgent strain on housing, healthcare, and public services. The Liberals’ Strong Borders Act promises reform, but its loaded with unnecessary overreach and vague measures.

A lack of urgency leaves Canadians vulnerable to further crime, chaos, closed emergency rooms, high rents, and failing infrastructure. With immigration continuing to spiral out of control, the NCC calls for concrete action to drastically lower immigration targets, expedite deportations, and prioritize Canadian citizens and the record amounts of unemployed before the House adjourns.

Canadians Deserve Results, Not More Hollow “Elbows up” or “Team Canada” Rhetoric

This week’s G7 summit in Alberta and the impending House adjournment are the Carney government’s last chance to show leadership, before an undeserved summer break for a government that will be overseeing deepening economic decline, rising crime under a refusal to tackle catch-and-release bail, and growing unemployment. Canadians cannot afford another season of unfulfilled promises and unchecked crises. The NCC demands Carney use the G7 platform to secure trade stability, meaningful energy deals with our allies, and table a federal budget to address the cost-of-living crisis made worse by inflationary Liberal spending. Failure to act now will cement an early legacy of inaction and leave Canadians to endure a prolonged period of hardship.

“The Carney government’s honeymoon has been built on hype, not results,” says NCC Director Alexander Brown. “From Gregor Robertson’s hidden millions, to stalled pipelines, to an immigration system in continued disarray, Canadians — and particularly young Canadians — are being let down. This week is Carney’s chance to prove he can deliver beyond the lies that were told to placate a portion of the electorate at the polls. If he fails to act, the economic decline, the crime and chaos, will only worsen, and everyday Canadians will pay the price.

“True Canadian leaders like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith are in attendance at the G7 along with Carney. If actual acts of ‘nation-building,’ and not more net-zero de-growth, do not come naturally to the PM, he should turn to those who have never wavered in their quest to make life more affordable for the hard-working citizens they are privileged to represent, and who know when to get out of the way to allow Canadians to prosper. More of the same internal, ideological sabotage from the Liberals cannot ruin this dire moment for Canada’s rebirth and recovery.”

The NCC calls on all Canadians to hold the Carney government accountable. Join us in demanding transparency, action, and results before the House adjourns and the G7 summit concludes. Together, we can fight for a stronger, more prosperous Canada.

About the National Citizens Coalition: Founded in 1967, the NCC is a non-profit organization dedicated to advocating for individual freedom, lower taxes, less government waste, and a stronger Canada. We hold governments accountable and fight for the interests of everyday Canadians.