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2023 Election

The Most Expensive Campaign Promise Ever – Explainer

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This article was submitted by Peter McCaffrey,  President 0f the Alberta Institute

Over the coming weeks, I’ll be analyzing some of the big policy announcements that the major parties in the Alberta election make.

So, today, we’re going to kick things off with a look at an issue that made headlines yesterday – electricity policy.

I know, I can almost see your eyes glaze over through your webcam, but bear with me – this is important!

Last March, Justin Trudeau announced the release of the federal government’s “2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Canada’s Next Steps for Clean Air and a Strong Economy”.

Who could be opposed to Clean Air and a Strong Economy, right?

The devil, as always, was in the details and, in this case, the details are called the “Clean Electricity Regulations”.

The federal government has been talking for some time about “transitioning” Canada’s entire electricity sector to being “net-zero” (ie: no net carbon emissions) by 2050.

The “Clean Electricity Regulations”, though, are the federal government’s plan to speed up this transition and require the provinces to have net-zero electricity grids by 2035 instead.

Now, for some provinces, that won’t actually be too challenging, as they already generate the vast majority of their electricity from Hydro.

But for Alberta (and Saskatchewan), it will be practically impossible – and insanely expensive.

That hasn’t stopped Rachel Notley and the NDP from promising to follow the federal government’s lead and do it, though.

So, let’s take a deep dive into exactly why this policy could be so harmful to Alberta.

First, in Alberta, about 85% of electricity on the commercial market comes from non-renewable resources.

That means that, in order to achieve net-zero here, we’d have to rebuild almost literally the entirety of our electricity market in the next 12 years.

If that sounds expensive to you – you’d be right!

In July 2020, when the federal government first started floating this idea, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) wrote a report that calculated that transitioning Alberta to a net-zero electricity grid by 2035 would cost $52 billion in additional capital investments and generation operating costs.

Yes, you read that right – $52 billion.

And, to be clear, that $52 billion isn’t the entire price of transitioning to net-zero – that would be much more – the $52 billion is just the extra price of doing it faster, by 2035 instead of 2050!

Next, fast forward to yesterday, and a new report was been released that assesses those direct capital and infrastructure costs calculated by AESO, and works out what the additional indirect economic harm to Alberta would be of being forced to make this rapid transition.

This new report was written by a group called Navius, who are traditionally seen as a left-leaning environmental economic research group, and even they say that the indirect impacts to Alberta’s economy will be enormous – $35 billion – and that’s before they even account for inflation.

So, now, thanks to these two reports, we know exactly what the federal government’s 2035 net-zero electricity grid plan will cost Alberta.

$52 billion in direct costs to upgrade and build infrastructure, plus at least $35 billion in indirect economic costs, for a total of at least $87 billion.

And, as I mentioned before, Rachel Notley and the NDP are fully on board.

They aren’t advertising their support, of course.

Just like with the carbon tax in 2015, they aren’t campaigning on this policy, and they haven’t mentioned it on their website or included it in their campaign material.

But, at a private NDP event last year and in a few occasional tweets, Rachel Notley has confirmed that the NDP is committed to this idea.

And, just like in 2015 with the carbon tax, they’re hoping Albertans won’t notice until after the election.

Let’s be clear, though – a policy of implementing a net-zero electricity grid by 2035 makes the carbon tax look like a bargain by comparison.

The carbon tax costs Albertans about $2 billion.

Don’t get me wrong, that’s a huge amount of money.

But $87 billion (or more) over just 12 years is more than $7 billion a year.

I really worry that people don’t understand just how much money we’re talking about here.

It’s an absolutely insane amount.

Let’s try to put it into scale…

$87 billion is more than the entire Alberta government budget ($63 billion).

$87 billion is 48 times the cost of the Red Deer Hospital.

$87 billion is 290 times as much as the province’s “controversial” Calgary arena investment.

$87 billion would pay for the salaries of every single nurse in Alberta for 70 years.

One more… just for fun…

$87 billion would buy a Tesla Model 3 for literally every household in the province.

Yes, seriously – you get a Tesla, you get a Tesla, everyone gets a Tesla!

This is honestly such an insane amount of money that I’m genuinely not even sure that the NDP realizes exactly what they’ve committed to here.

“Never has a politician committed to a policy that would cost this much to implement. This is not only unrealistic, but it is dangerous to the long-term health and viability of our economy,” said UCP Candidate Brian Jean.

It is the single biggest election promise in Alberta history, and it’s not even close.

Thankfully, here at the Alberta Institute, our team is working hard to assess and analyze campaign promises to make sure that you have the facts at your fingertips, and that you’re fully aware of just how much our politician’s promises are going to cost you.

I’d love to be able to bring you more of this type of analysis, so if you support our work, please help us continue to provide you with the level of in-depth policy research by making a donation to support our work:


The Alberta Institute is an independent, libertarian, public policy think tank that aims to advance personal freedom and choice in Alberta.

Founded in 2018, we work to develop and promote solutions to a wide range of municipal, provincial, and federal public policy issues in a strictly non-partisan way.

Our solutions are informed by our belief in a free and open society built on individual rights, private property, peace, voluntaryism, free markets, free minds, free trade, free movement, self-ownership, and reason.

We promote these beliefs through a wide variety of activities and actions, including research, data analysis, publications, newsletters, advocacy, events, conferences, and more.

Independence:

The Alberta Institute’s work is funded by thousands of small-dollar donors from across Alberta who believe in – and wish to support – our mission.

We don’t accept any government funding – and we never will – because we think Albertans should be free to choose, for themselves, which organizations to support.

The donations we receive from our supporters allow us to hire dedicated research staff and volunteer coordinators, publish and promote our findings, host events to help get the message out and connect with the community, offer internships and other opportunities to young Albertans, and much more.

We also depend on our grassroots volunteers, spread across nearly every community in the Province, to help with our mission of advancing personal freedom and choice across Alberta.

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2023 Election

Elections Alberta releases official list of electors, and information on recalls and petitions

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Elections Alberta releases post election day list of electors

Following a Provincial General Election, Elections Alberta releases an updated List of Electors to registered political parties and Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs). 

The number of names on the Post Election Day List of Electors is also used to determine the number of signatures required for petitions relating to citizen initiatives, recall of MLAs, or forming a new political party. These thresholds will be in place until a new list is generated after the next Provincial General Election.

The total number of names on the Post Election Day List of Electors is 2,939,762.

Citizen Initiative Petitions

Electors can use the citizen initiative process to have a legislative or policy proposal introduced in the Legislative Assembly or have a constitutional referendum conducted.

  • Petitions for a legislative or policy proposal require signatures from 10 per cent of provincial electors, or 293,976 signatures.
  • Petitions for a constitutional referendum require signatures from 20 per cent of provincial electors (587,952 signatures), with the 20 per cent threshold reached in at least 2/3 of electoral divisions.

Threshold numbers for successful petitions are available at https://www.elections.ab.ca/recall-initiative/initiative/number-of-signatures-required-for-initiative.

Recall Petitions

A recall petition for a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) requires signatures from 40 per cent of the electors in the electoral division on the Post Election Day List of Electors. The number of signatures required in each electoral division for a successful recall petition is available at https://www.elections.ab.ca/recall-initiative/recall/number-of-signatures-required-for-recall.

The threshold numbers are only applicable for recall petitions relating to MLAs and do not impact recall petitions for municipal officials.

Petitions to Form a New Political Party

One of the methods to register a new political party is submitting a petition containing signatures from at least 0.3 per cent of the total number of electors that were eligible to vote in the last general election. Based on the Post Election Day List of Electors, the number of signatures required for a petition is 8,819. For more details on registering a new political party visit: https://www.elections.ab.ca/political-participants/parties/how-to-register-a-party.

Additional Details

List of Elector counts by electoral division and historical List of Elector counts are available at https://www.elections.ab.ca/resources/statistics-research/elector-counts.

The Chief Electoral Officer’s Report on the 2023 Provincial General Election will be released in May 2024. The report will include additional information on processes used to update the List of Electors and current demographics of the Register of Electors.

Elections Alberta is an independent, non-partisan office of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta responsible for administering provincial elections, by-elections, and referenda.

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2023 Election

Campaign Update – Alberta Election 2023

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From the Alberta Institute

Campaign Roundup – Day 25:

  • Pierre Poilieve, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, endorsed Danielle Smith. “[Notley] will help Trudeau attack the energy sector, putting you out of a job,” said Poilieve in a video message, adding that Smith would stand up for Alberta and fight the carbon tax.
  • Adriana LaGrange, UCP Candidate for Red Deer-North, noted that the NDP removed the Red Deer Hospital expansion from their capital plan in 2018 while the UCP has invested $1.8 million into the project.
  • NDP Candidates Sarah Hoffman (Edmonton-Glenora) and Jaelene Tweedle (Red Deer-North) promised to immediately increase funding by $100 million for children with complex needs. They also promised to modernize or build 125 schools.
  • Rachel Notley announced Bill 1, 2, and 3 of an NDP government. Bill 1 will be the “Save Albertans Money Act” and will include capping power bills and auto insurance, freezing tuition, and implementing $10/day childcare. Bill 2 would repeal the Sovereignty Act, and Bill 3 is designed to prevent any future government from leaving the Canada Pension Plan.
  • Shaun Fluker, the NDP Candidate for Airdrie-Cochrane, said yesterday that when he argued in favour of the No More Pipelines bill, that he was simply representing a client. More information has since come to light though, and it turns out that Fluker intentionally sought out that client.
  • The UCP promised to dedicate $80 million over four years to a fund that would build recreation facilities in growing communities.
  • UCP Candidates Brian Jean (Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche) and Rebecca Schulz (Calgary-Shaw) held a press conference in Calgary to highlight the NDP’s poor record on the economy and how the UCP will continue to move the province forward.
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