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Reality check—Canadians are not getting an income tax cut

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jason Clemens and Jake Fuss

On the campaign trail, both the Conservatives and the Liberals promised to cut personal income taxes, and with the Liberal Party winning a minority, one assumes the Carney government will fulfill the promise and reduce the bottom personal income tax rate from 15 to 14 per cent. However, in reality, due to the dismal state of federal finances, neither party actually offered a tax reduction but rather simply a deferral of taxes to the future.

The key variable in any government’s fiscal policy is spending. It represents the amount of resources the government plans to marshal for its various programs and transfers. At any given point in time, a country has only so many resources (i.e. raw materials, workers, equipment, etc.) and a government’s spending plan represents the share of those resources it intends to use for its purposes rather than leaving them in the hands of the people, families and businesses that actually created them.

Taxes are simply the way governments finance that spending. But it’s not the only way. Governments in many western countries, particularly Canada and the United States, have increasingly relied on borrowing to finance current spending. Instead of raising taxes today to pay for increased spending, governments defer those taxes into the future by borrowing and increasing government debt.

According to the Trudeau government’s last economic update, Ottawa expected to collect $516.2 billion this year (2025/26) but planned to spend $558.3 billion on programs and debt interest payments. The difference—$42.2 billion—represents how much the federal government plans to borrow.

According to the Liberal Party’s election platform, the promised tax cut to the lowest personal income tax rate will reduce revenues by a projected $4.2 billion this year. If the Liberal platform also reduced spending by at least the same amount, the tax cut would represent a real reduction in the amount of resources used by government and thus a genuine reduction in the tax bill for Canadians.

But the Liberal platform doesn’t reduce spending. In fact, it proposes marked increases ($29.4 billion this year) on already record levels of spending by the previous government. And the planned deficit this year is expected to increase from a projected $42.2 billion under Trudeau to $62.3 billion under Carney.

Put differently, Prime Minister Carney plans to use more resources in government for his new spending and investments compared to Trudeau. However, Carney plans to collect slightly less taxes now by shifting the burden to more borrowing, which simply means more debt and higher debt interest payments, and ultimately higher taxes in the future.

These decisions are not also without immediate costs. Under Trudeau, total federal debt increased from $1.1 trillion in 2014/15 (the year before he took office) to an expected $2.3 trillion this year. (Again, Carney plans to increase the amount of debt accumulated this year and at least the next three years.) Debt interest payments also increased from $24.2 billion the year before Trudeau took office to a projected $54.2 billion this year.

Carney’s plan, which includes higher debt levels, means those interest costs will increase. Interest payments represent resources extracted from Canadians that are not available for actual programs such as health care or genuine tax relief.

So while the new government may tell Canadians that its delivering tax relief, it’s not. It’s simply kicking the can down the road by financing higher spending through more borrowing. That means higher interest costs, higher debt and ultimately higher taxes in the future.

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Outrageous government spending: Canadians losing over 1 billion a week to interest payments

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By Franco Terrazzano

Massive borrowing, soaring interest charges unacceptable

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is calling on the federal government to cut spending following Thursday’s Parliamentary Budget Officer report showing debt interest charges cost taxpayers $54 billion in 2024-25.

“The PBO report shows debt interest charges cost taxpayers more than $1 billion every week,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Massive deficits mean interest charges cost taxpayers more than the feds send to the provinces in health transfers.”

The PBO projects the federal government’s deficit to be $46 billion in 2024-25.

Interest charges on the federal debt cost taxpayers $54 billion in 2024, according to the PBO’s Economic and Fiscal Monitor. For comparison, the federal government spent $52 billion through the Canada Health Transfer in 2024, according to the Fall Economic Statement. That means the government spent more money on debt interest payments than it sent to the provinces in health-care transfers.

A separate PBO report projects debt interest charges will reach $70 billion by 2029.

A recent Leger poll shows Canadians want the federal government to cut spending (45 per cent) instead of increasing spending (20 per cent) or maintaining current spending levels (19 per cent).

“Borrowing tens of billions of dollars every year is unaffordable and unacceptable,” Terrazzano said. “Canadians want

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Ottawa Slams Eby Government Over Chinese Shipyard Deal, Citing Security and Sovereignty Risks

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Sam Cooper's avatar Sam Cooper

Western security analysts have warned that China’s commercial shipyards routinely serve dual-use purposes, supporting both civilian contracts and the expansion of the People’s Liberation Army Navy. A 2024 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that foreign customers contracting with Chinese state-owned shipbuilders may be inadvertently “subsidizing the growth of China’s naval power.”

Stung by a political firestorm over his provincial government’s decision to hand a massive shipbuilding contract to Chinese suppliers that critics say could bolster Xi Jinping’s military capabilities and undermine Canadian national security, B.C. Premier David Eby late Friday night reluctantly released a searing letter from federal Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland.

The letter, dated June 16 and addressed to B.C. Transportation Minister Mike Farnworth, expresses Freeland’s “consternation and disappointment” over BC Ferries’ decision to select China Merchants Industry Weihai—a subsidiary of a state-owned Chinese conglomerate closely tied to Beijing’s military-civil fusion strategy and Belt and Road Initiative—to build four new major vessels.

“I am dismayed that BC Ferries would select a Chinese state-owned shipyard to build new ferries in the current geopolitical context,” Freeland wrote. She demanded that Farnworth “verify and confirm with utmost certainty that no federal funding will be diverted to support the acquisition of these new ferries.”

Freeland emphasized that the Government of Canada has provided “long-standing financial support” to British Columbia’s ferry system, including “approximately $37.8 million” annually under a 1977 agreement, $308 million to cover pandemic-related operating losses, and “a $75-million loan to BC Ferries to help purchase four net-zero emission ferries.”

“Given the value of the contract and the level of taxpayer funding that has been provided to support BC Ferries’ operations,” Freeland wrote, “I am surprised that BC Ferries does not appear to have been mandated to require an appropriate level of Canadian content in the procurement or the involvement of the Canadian marine industry.”

The letter, which had been withheld by Eby’s government for nearly a week, was quietly released to the public just before midnight Eastern Time Friday—only after repeated demands in Parliament by Conservative MP Dan Albas, who posted on social media: “People deserve that transparency.”

The political backlash mounted swiftly following Eby’s disclosure of the deal with China. BC Conservative leader John Rustad accused Eby and BC Ferries of failing to account for the broader strategic risks of contracting with a Chinese state-owned entity during a period of rising global tensions.

“There’s lots of rhetoric going back and forth between the United States and China, friction with Taiwan,” Rustad told Postmedia. “Who knows what may happen? Hopefully nothing by 2029 to 2031, which is when these ships are going to start to be constructed and delivered.”

It’s not a far-fetched concern. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government entered into a vaccine partnership with CanSino Biologics—a company with links to China’s People’s Liberation Army—only for Beijing to block shipment of the vaccine, abruptly collapsing the deal.

In her June 16 letter, Freeland warned the B.C. government that “ongoing concerns regarding threats to security, including cybersecurity, from China” required urgent attention. She asked for clear commitments that BC Ferries had conducted “a robust risk assessment” and demanded to be informed of the steps being taken to “reduce the risks of outside influence or control from cybersecurity vulnerabilities,” and to “mitigate the risks that vessel maintenance and spare parts may pose.”

Freeland further linked the deal to Beijing’s retaliatory economic measures, writing, “China has imposed unjustified tariffs on Canada, including 100% tariffs on canola oil, meal, and pea imports, and a 25% duty on Canadian aquatic products and pork. These tariffs have affected about 36% of Canadian agriculture businesses and are directly impacting the livelihood of Canadians.”

China Merchants Industry Weihai is a subsidiary of China Merchants Group, a massive state-owned enterprise that has played a central role in advancing Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative since 2013. The conglomerate operates ports and shipyards across Asia, Europe, and Africa—including strategic holdings in Greece, Lithuania, Nigeria, and Djibouti—and is a central player in the Chinese Communist Party’s military-civil fusion strategy.

Western security analysts have warned that China’s commercial shipyards routinely serve dual-use purposes, supporting both civilian contracts and the expansion of the People’s Liberation Army Navy. A 2024 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that foreign customers contracting with Chinese state-owned shipbuilders may be inadvertently “subsidizing the growth of China’s naval power.”

Valued in the hundreds of millions, the contract will see the Chinese yard begin delivering the vessels between 2029 and 2031.

Rustad further told Postmedia that the province’s reliance on foreign state-controlled suppliers for strategic transportation infrastructure was “not just irresponsible, it’s a betrayal of Canadian workers and economic independence.”

The BC Federation of Labour has also raised concerns about the use of public money to finance offshore contracts that benefit authoritarian regimes, and Canadian maritime industry groups have renewed calls for a federal policy mandating domestic content in major shipbuilding procurements.

First established in 2016 under then-premier Christy Clark through a Memorandum of Understanding with China’s Guangdong province, the B.C.–Belt and Road Initiative pact laid the groundwork for collaboration on maritime trade, infrastructure, and shipbuilding with Chinese state-owned firms. Those ties expanded under Premier John Horgan, whose NDP government promoted deeper bilateral economic relations. The BC Ferries procurement—while legally made by an independent board—proceeded within a framework Premier Eby’s administration continues to support.

New research reported by The Bureau and published by the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation adds a sharp dimension to these concerns. The Foundation warns that criminal and political networks promoting Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative have been linked to Chinese transnational organized crime and covert Communist Party influence operations.

According to the report, a global syndicate known as Hongmen—also referred to as the Chinese Freemasons—has been deeply embedded in both criminal activity and Beijing’s “united front” operations, which support the CCP’s geopolitical aims including the annexation of Taiwan and BRI expansion.

“The organization’s sprawling structure includes affiliated offices across the globe from Hong Kong and Nairobi to Toronto and Madrid,” the report states. “The Chinese Communist Party has turned a blind eye as Hongmen ventures have expanded across One Belt One Road countries, in part because these organizations serve the purposes of united front work.”

The Jamestown Foundation’s findings echo longstanding concerns within Canada’s intelligence community regarding BRI-linked actors and opaque Chinese political networks operating in the country—especially in British Columbia, which remains the only jurisdiction in North America to have signed a formal Belt and Road agreement with Beijing.

Premier Eby has not apologized for the decision. He told reporters last week that the province would not interfere with BC Ferries’ independent board, which selected the Chinese yard based on cost and delivery timelines.

Whether mounting federal pressure and scrutiny from security experts will force a review remains an open question.

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