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International

Project Porcupine. Assessing the fantasy of an EU military surge.

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An alliance with a powerful person is never safe.”—Phaedrus

The day after the historic debacle in the Oval Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky received yet another round of “whatever-it-takes” assurances from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London, and Russia claimed to have shot down three Ukranian drones from its airspace. Russia asserts that Ukraine aimed to hit a key compressor station on the TurkStream pipeline, one of two remaining active gas links between Russia and Europe. If destroyed, Europe would have plunged into a deep energy crisis. The diplomatic response was swift:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov asked his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, to use all means at his disposal to prevent future attacks and Fidan pledged to do so, the Russian foreign ministry said on its website. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, whose country receives Russian gas through Turkstream, said on Facebook that Lavrov had informed him of the attack by telephone. Szijjarto said the operation of Turkstream was critical to Hungary’s energy security and called on the European Union to uphold guarantees that infrastructure linked to the 27-nation bloc would not come under attack.

Last ties | Sesfa

We warned of this vulnerability in our January Pro Tier presentation, Natural Gas Between Russia and Europe: History, Current Crisis, and Future Prospects (now unlocked for all subscribers here), and the attack underscores the live-wire risk of fighting wars by proxy: proxies can go rogue. This risk intensifies as the proxy realizes the war is lost, a reality that even Zelensky must be grappling with as he ping-pongs from one crisis meeting to the next. Zelensky’s thinly veiled threat that the US would soon “feel” the pain of the war, delivered to the US president for all the world to hear, leaves little doubt about the intended message behind the TurkStream mission.

With the US looking to wash its hands of the war, leaders of the European Union (EU) are gathering tomorrow in Brussels to plot their next move. Coming on the heels of the summit held in London on Sunday, the EU is pushing forward on a historical proposal to replace the financial and military resources previously provided to Ukraine by the US. Not all European capitals are thrilled about it:

The European Union is preparing for a military spending bonanza. But for governments, it’s not only about the cash.

An emergency meeting of EU leaders on Thursday to figure out how to boost Europe’s security, amid United States President Donald Trump’s looming military disengagement from the continent, should be a chance to project a show of unity. But instead, it looks like a power grab is on the cards.

National capitals fear European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will exploit this crisis to extend Brussels’ powers to new areas and strengthen her influence vis-à-vis national governments.

Not wasting this crisis | Getty

The enthusiasm to create a multinational military comes on the heels of von der Leyen’s ambitious plans to reindustrialize the EU and establish a place of prominence in the AI arms race. Among the many problems with this vision, one is determinative: physics. That Europe is a drone attack away from yet another energy emergency is scandalous enough, but it is also testimony to the impossibility of converting platitudes into bombs. Brussels might refuse to acknowledge this fundamental truth, let alone confront it, but it is the sort of problem that cannot be wished away. The numbers are truly shocking.

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Crime

Manhunt on for suspect in shooting deaths of Minnesota House speaker, husband

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Vance Luther Boelter, wanted in the murders of former Minnesota House speaker and her husband, shown in image from video Saturday.

From The Center Square

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Second lawmaker, his wife also shot; suspect remains at large

Two Minnesota state lawmakers who are members of the Democratic-Farm-Labor Party were shot early Saturday by a person posing as a law enforcement officer just north of Minneapolis.

House Speaker Emeritus Melissa Hortman and her husband were shot and killed in what Gov. Tim Walz called a politically-motivated assassination. The suspect, identified as Vance Boelter, 57, remains at large and a manhunt is ongoing. Authorities said he no longer is in the area of the shootings.

 

Gov. Walz on Shooting of Minnesota Legislators: ‘An Unspeakable Tragedy’. 6/14/25

Source: Minnesota Department of Public Safety

“My good friend and colleague, Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, were shot and killed early this morning in what appears to be a politically-motivated assassination,” Walz said at a news conference. “Our state lost a great leader, and I lost a dearest of friends.”

State Sen. John Hoffman, DFL-Brooklyn Park, and his wife also were shot about 2 a.m., and Hortman and her husband were found about 90 minutes later.

Walz said the Hoffmans were each shot multiple times but he was hopeful for their recovery.

Law enforcement issued a shelter-in-place order for an area around Edinburgh Course that continued into the hours Saturday but has since been lifted. The suspect was seen wearing blue pants, a blue shirt, body armor, and reportedly driving a dark SUV with lights meant to make it appear like a police vehicle.

The suspect, Boelter, was appointed by Walz to serve on the Governor’s Workforce Development Board in 2019. Various media outlets reported that he is the director of Praetorian Guard Security Services, where he had access to police-like security equipment. Media outlets also reported that Boelter had a list of about 70 names in his vehicle which included the lawmakers who were shot, other lawmakers and abortion providers.

State officials are encouraging residents to not attend “No Kings” protests at the state capitol and across Minnesota. “No Kings” flyers were found in the suspect’s vehicle, law enforcement said.

FNF The scene near a shooting of Minnesota lawmakers
Law enforcement at the scene of a shooting in Minneapolis

The “suspect exploited the trust of our uniforms, what our uniforms are meant to represent,” Public Safety Commissioner Bob Jacobson said. “That betrayal is deeply disturbing to those of us who wear the badge with honor and responsibility.”

According to authorities, the gunman allegedly escaped through a back door of Hortman’s house following an exchange of gunfire with police.

President Donald Trump also released a statement on X, posted by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

“Our Attorney General, Pam Bondi, and the FBI are investigating the situation, and they will be prosecuting anyone involved to the fullest extent of the law,” Trump said. “Such horrific violence will not be tolerated in the United States of America. God Bless the great people of Minnesota, a truly great place!”

The FBI said it is offering a reward of up to $50,000 for information leading to the arrest of Boelter.

Drew Evans, superintendent of the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, said Saturday that officers arrived at the Hortman residence as part of a routine check on lawmakers in the area and exchanged gunfire with the suspect, who managed to flee.

Brooklyn Park Police Chief Burley said officers knocked on the Hortmans door and were met by what appeared to be a police officer wearing police gear, a gun, a taser and a badge. Officers and the suspect exchanged gunfire in the home before the suspect fled out the rear of the house.

Burley also said the suspect was driving an SUV that looked like a police vehicle with lights. The car was impounded, and Burley said the suspect is on foot. He  encouraged citizens to not answer the door for police officers and instructed Brooklyn Park police officers to not approach citizens alone, only in groups of two or more.

Burley said several people have been detained, and police are looking for others of interest.

Burley said a manifesto was found in the suspect’s vehicle that identified several other lawmakers. Both Hoffman and Hortman were on the list of people found in the car, Evans said.

Life-saving efforts were given to the Hortmans at the scene, Evans said.

“This was an act of targeted political violence. Peaceful discourse is the foundation of our democracy.We don’t settle our differences with violence at gun point. We must all stand against political violence,” Walz, also a DFL party member, said. “This tragic act in Minnesota should serve as a reminder that democracy and debate is a the way to settle our differences and move to a better place.”

The shootings happened seven miles away from each other, and law enforcement officials have called both shootings “targeted.”

Law enforcement was dispatched to the homes of several other state lawmakers – both Democrats and Republicans – in the Twin Cities area for protection overnight. Those lawmakers were told not to answer the door if an officer comes to it, but confirm with 911 before answering.

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuhar, D-Minn., was shocked by the news.

“This is a stunning act of violence. I’m thankful for all the law enforcement who are responding in real time. My prayers are with the Hortman and Hoffman families. Both legislators are close friends and devoted to their families and public service,” Klobuchar said on social media.

Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, called the shootings evil and asked for prayers.

“I am shocked and horrified by the evil attack that took place overnight. Please lift up in prayer the victims along with the law enforcement personal working to apprehend the perpetrator,” Demuth said on social media.

Walz activated the state emergency operations center early Saturday.

Hoffman was first elected to the Senate in 2012 and currently chairs the Human Services Committee.

Hortman was first elected in 2002 and was elected as speaker of the house in 2018. She is the current speaker emeritus.

She was also one of four DFL members to break with the party Monday and join Republicans to pass a state budget and end state health care services for noncitizens after a long and contentious special session.

The initial budget vote ended in a tie, before Hortman and three other DFL members broke ranks and joined Republicans to pass the legislation.

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conflict

One dead, over 60 injured after Iranian missiles pierce Iron Dome

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MXM logo MxM News 

Quick Hit:

Iran launched four waves of missile attacks Friday night, breaching Israel’s defenses and killing at least one person. Over 60 others were injured, with the IDF confirming direct strikes on civilian areas in Tel Aviv and central Israel.

Key Details:

  • The Israel Defense Forces reported four rounds of Iranian missile fire, with at least ten missiles making impact inside Israel.

  • One person was killed and 63 wounded, including several in critical condition, according to The Jerusalem Post.

  • The IDF said Iran deliberately targeted civilians, contrasting its own earlier strikes that focused on Iranian military assets.

Diving Deeper:

Several Iranian missiles broke through Israel’s air defenses during Friday night’s attack, striking Tel Aviv and other civilian areas. According to The Jerusalem Post, at least 63 people were wounded and one person was killed after four waves of Iranian ballistic missile strikes hit cities across Israel.

The IDF reportedly said roughly 100 missiles were fired in total. While the Iron Dome intercepted many, multiple missiles made it through and exploded in densely populated areas. Dramatic video showed a missile striking near downtown Tel Aviv, sending fire and debris into the air as people ran for cover.

Army Radio confirmed that ten missiles landed inside Israel between the first two waves. By the time the third and fourth waves hit, injuries had climbed sharply, with several listed in critical condition. The one fatality was reported late Friday night.

The Israeli Home Front Command temporarily allowed civilians to exit shelters but quickly reversed that guidance, urging residents to stay near protected areas amid fears of further attacks.

The IDF emphasized the nature of the targets, calling out Iran for targeting civilians. The IDF also released maps showing where air raid sirens were triggered throughout the night. Though Israel’s Home Front Command briefly allowed civilians to exit shelters, it advised them to remain nearby in case of continued strikes. As of late Friday, Iranian officials claimed a fifth wave could follow.

With tensions still high, Israeli defense officials are preparing for potential further escalation—and weighing how to respond to a direct Iranian attack on civilians.

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