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International

Political realignment in 2024 has changed American politics

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From The Center Square

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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump face off at the ballot box on Tuesday with control of the U.S. Senate and House up for grabs.

This election cycle has featured unusual alliances and demographic shifts not seen in recent elections.

Billionaire Elon Musk joined former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and former Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to endorse Trump this time around.

Meanwhile, Harris has taken to the campaign trail with former Republican U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, daughter of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney, meaning the iconic Kennedy and Cheney brands are opposing one another yet again, but from the opposite sides this time around.

Those changes come alongside unusual demographic inroads for Trump while men shift more Republican and women favor Democrats, an apparently widening gap for the two sexes.

Union workers, Hispanic voters, and Black voters are traditionally Democratic-favoring demographics that Trump has managed to curry favor with this election.

“He’s changed the makeup of the Republican coalition, and some of them are formerly Democratic,” campaign veteran and former Mitt Romney spokesperson Ryan Williams told The Center Square. “And if you are in a tight race in a purple state, you want to appeal to those voters and try to get them to split their ticket.”

Polling shows that Harris has about 80% support among Black voters nationally. Former President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and President Joe Biden all managed to get between 90% and 95% support from Black voters.

Trump has marginally increased his support among Black voters and made even better strides among Hispanic voters.

As The Center Square previously reported, ​​Noble Predictive Insights published new polling Tuesday reporting that Harris leads Trump with Black voters 78% to 20% and with Hispanic voters 50% to 45%.

“He’s reminiscent of Bush 2004 numbers,” said Williams, now at Targeted Victory, referring to when former President George W. Bush got 40-44% of the Hispanic vote, depending on which survey or analysis you cite.

“Trump can reach out and connect to these voters in a way that my old boss, Mitt Romney, couldn’t,” Williams continued. “That’s not to say that Republicans are going to win these groups, but they are going to lessen the margin which is why I think that this race is so close at this point.

“You are essentially heading into a dead heat in so many states because Trump has managed to slice into traditionally Democratic constituencies and narrow the margins,” he added.

The demographic realignment has a big impact in down-ballot U.S. House and Senate races with 33 Senate seats in the balance. All 435 House seats are up for reelection every two years.

In the Senate, Democrats are defending about twice as many seats as Republicans, painting a tough picture for the party. Republicans are also considered slight favorites to take the U.S. House, according to betting markets.

Democrats have been working hard to resurrect their relationship with Black voters, with Harris rolling out new policies and even Obama chiding Black men about not voting for Harris.

Last month, Obama told a gathering of Black men to vote for Harris and suggested they would not support her because she was a woman, a comment that sparked pushback and criticism for Democrats.

“Respectfully, President Obama, what you said is not acceptable,” ESPN’s most famous host, Stephen A Smith, who is Black, said on one of his shows after the remarks. “Is it possible that the reason some Black folks may not be inclined to vote or may be a bit disenchanted or dare I say may go as far as voting for Trump, is it possible that it’s policy as opposed to misogyny?

“Inflation, the cost of living, the cost of gas, the cost of groceries, that don’t matter?” he continued. “Immigration and our borders and this belief that there’s an elevated level of sensitivity toward them as opposed to Black folks struggling if not starving in this country? Yes that plays a role too.”

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Crime

Minnesota shooter arrested after 48-hour manhunt

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MXM logo MxM News

Quick Hit:

Vance Luther Boelter, accused of killing former Minnesota State House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, was captured Sunday after leading law enforcement on a 48-hour manhunt.

Key Details:

  • Boelter allegedly began his rampage around 2 a.m. Saturday at Sen. Hoffman’s Champlin home, shooting both the senator and his wife, Yvette. The couple survived after emergency surgery.

  • He then traveled to Rep. Melissa Hortman’s Brooklyn Park home, where she was pronounced dead at the scene and her husband died shortly afterward at a hospital.

  • The suspect reportedly sent a farewell message to friends before fleeing and was later arrested in a Sibley County field Sunday night.

Diving Deeper:

Vance Luther Boelter, the man accused of carrying out a targeted shooting of Democrat lawmakers in Minnesota, was taken into custody Sunday night following a 48-hour manhunt that spanned multiple counties. According to a report from Alpha News, Boelter was arrested in a field in rural Sibley County after evading police for more than a day following the deadly shootings.

Boelter, 57, previously served as an appointee under Gov. Tim Walz and is accused of murdering former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and injuring State Senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette. Authorities say Boelter disguised himself as a police officer—complete with a uniform, ballistic vest, and Halloween mask—before launching the coordinated attacks early Saturday morning.

The violence began just after 2 a.m. when Boelter allegedly entered the Hoffman residence in Champlin and opened fire. Both the senator and his wife were struck multiple times. Their daughter, Hope, was reportedly shielded from the gunfire by her mother. The couple’s nephew confirmed that both John and Yvette Hoffman underwent surgery and were listed in stable condition by Sunday.

From there, Boelter allegedly drove to Brooklyn Park and carried out a second attack at the home of Speaker Emerita Hortman. The 55-year-old lawmaker was found dead inside the home, while her husband was transported to a hospital where he later succumbed to his injuries.

Brooklyn Park police officers, alerted by the earlier incident, arrived as Boelter was leaving the Hortman residence. A standoff ensued, with officers briefly cornering the suspect inside the house and opening fire, though Boelter managed to flee.

Boelter reportedly sent a chilling text message to close friends. “David and Ron, I love you guys. I made some choices, and you guys don’t know anything about this, but I’m going to be gone for a while,” he wrote. “May be dead shortly, so I just want to let you know I love you guys both and I wish it hadn’t gone this way.”

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Energy

Could the G7 Summit in Alberta be a historic moment for Canadian energy?

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From Resource Works

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Canada can be the democratic world’s top energy supplier, and the G7 Summit in Alberta is the perfect time to commit to that.

Canada is at the crossroads of opportunity as the leaders of the G7 convene in Kananaskis, Alberta.

An Ipsos poll has named Canada the top preferred oil supplier among G7 countries for the second time since 2023. No less than 68 percent of G7 respondents declared that Canada was among their top three choices to supply oil.

This should be yet another motivator for Canada to solidify itself as a key player in energy security and economic stability among the democratic nations.

The timing and location of this year’s G7 summit shows how important Canada can be to the world. Alberta, Canada’s energy heartland, is the source of nearly all of the country’s oil, and the provincial government wants more of it to reach global markets.

Those geopolitical anxieties caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have not disappeared, and Canada’s allies and partners like the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea, and India are looking for a reliable and responsible partner to supply them with energy, and we are the best and most obvious choice.

Willing partners are easy to find overseas, but the other provinces and the federal government need to become equally enthusiastic first.

There is more to this than mere symbolism. Canada embracing its position as the most desirable supplier of oil makes complete sense.

In 2023, Ipsos found that Canada’s political stability, comprehensive environmental rules, and strong regulatory frameworks are why it ranked first among preferred oil suppliers. Norway is another popular option, but Canada has the advantage of better market access to the United States and the Asia-Pacific, along with established infrastructure and an open government.

It all combines to create a distinct advantage for Canada in the world of trade.

The US has slid as a popular oil supplier, to Canada’s advantage, and we need to capitalize on that more than ever.

As Russia’s bloody, disruptive war with Ukraine continues to drag on, the EU still needs sources of alternative energy to make a clean break with Moscow. Russia had previously served as the bloc’s effective gas station, albeit one armed with nuclear weapons.

G7 member states like Britain and the EU are looking to slap even stricter limits on Russian energy exports that go beyond what is already in place. Whatever Russia has to lose is Canada’s to gain.

Canada began to enlarge its export capacity last year with the completion of the twinning of Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX), enabling Canada to double the amount of oil it can pipe to Pacific markets. Shipping larger amounts of Canadian energy to partners in Japan, India, South Korea, and others has never been easier.

It was a monumental example of how investing in the right sorts of infrastructure can improve economic security, both nationally and internationally. Internally, developing the oil industry is a long term goal of First Nations leaders and communities.

The myth of First Nations opposing the expansion of oil and gas is one that needs to die. The Indian Resource Council, which represents over 130 First Nations, has repeatedly championed the responsible development of natural resources as a means of fostering economic independence and community renewal.

Many First Nations and other Indigenous groups have invested heavily into pipelines, production sites and storage facilities, and want to expand it further. In terms of pure economic value, there is not another industry that has created more wealth in Indigenous communities across Western Canada.

Complacency from the federal government and other authorities at this time could not be timed more poorly as the G7 Summit comes to Alberta. When the gathering ends on June 17, we should hope that it was a turning point where Canada made a direct and clear commitment to modernizing and expanding its oil and gas sector.

Our role in the world can be that of the great democratic alternative to Russia when it comes to supplying energy and other resources. Alberta knows it, as do our allies and Indigenous people across Canada.

Ottawa should listen. It is time to realize our potential to be an even greater energy superpower.

Through that, we can reduce the power of authoritarian, hostile regimes in the world by building a stronger, more unified Canada.

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