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International

Political realignment in 2024 has changed American politics

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From The Center Square

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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump face off at the ballot box on Tuesday with control of the U.S. Senate and House up for grabs.

This election cycle has featured unusual alliances and demographic shifts not seen in recent elections.

Billionaire Elon Musk joined former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and former Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to endorse Trump this time around.

Meanwhile, Harris has taken to the campaign trail with former Republican U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, daughter of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney, meaning the iconic Kennedy and Cheney brands are opposing one another yet again, but from the opposite sides this time around.

Those changes come alongside unusual demographic inroads for Trump while men shift more Republican and women favor Democrats, an apparently widening gap for the two sexes.

Union workers, Hispanic voters, and Black voters are traditionally Democratic-favoring demographics that Trump has managed to curry favor with this election.

“He’s changed the makeup of the Republican coalition, and some of them are formerly Democratic,” campaign veteran and former Mitt Romney spokesperson Ryan Williams told The Center Square. “And if you are in a tight race in a purple state, you want to appeal to those voters and try to get them to split their ticket.”

Polling shows that Harris has about 80% support among Black voters nationally. Former President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and President Joe Biden all managed to get between 90% and 95% support from Black voters.

Trump has marginally increased his support among Black voters and made even better strides among Hispanic voters.

As The Center Square previously reported, ​​Noble Predictive Insights published new polling Tuesday reporting that Harris leads Trump with Black voters 78% to 20% and with Hispanic voters 50% to 45%.

“He’s reminiscent of Bush 2004 numbers,” said Williams, now at Targeted Victory, referring to when former President George W. Bush got 40-44% of the Hispanic vote, depending on which survey or analysis you cite.

“Trump can reach out and connect to these voters in a way that my old boss, Mitt Romney, couldn’t,” Williams continued. “That’s not to say that Republicans are going to win these groups, but they are going to lessen the margin which is why I think that this race is so close at this point.

“You are essentially heading into a dead heat in so many states because Trump has managed to slice into traditionally Democratic constituencies and narrow the margins,” he added.

The demographic realignment has a big impact in down-ballot U.S. House and Senate races with 33 Senate seats in the balance. All 435 House seats are up for reelection every two years.

In the Senate, Democrats are defending about twice as many seats as Republicans, painting a tough picture for the party. Republicans are also considered slight favorites to take the U.S. House, according to betting markets.

Democrats have been working hard to resurrect their relationship with Black voters, with Harris rolling out new policies and even Obama chiding Black men about not voting for Harris.

Last month, Obama told a gathering of Black men to vote for Harris and suggested they would not support her because she was a woman, a comment that sparked pushback and criticism for Democrats.

“Respectfully, President Obama, what you said is not acceptable,” ESPN’s most famous host, Stephen A Smith, who is Black, said on one of his shows after the remarks. “Is it possible that the reason some Black folks may not be inclined to vote or may be a bit disenchanted or dare I say may go as far as voting for Trump, is it possible that it’s policy as opposed to misogyny?

“Inflation, the cost of living, the cost of gas, the cost of groceries, that don’t matter?” he continued. “Immigration and our borders and this belief that there’s an elevated level of sensitivity toward them as opposed to Black folks struggling if not starving in this country? Yes that plays a role too.”

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Business

China’s economy takes a hit as factories experience sharp decline in orders following Trump tariffs

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President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports are delivering a direct blow to China’s economy, with new data showing factory activity dropping sharply in April. The fallout signals growing pressure on Beijing as it struggles to prop up a slowing economy amid a bruising trade standoff.

Key Details:

  • China’s manufacturing index plunged to 49.0 in April — the steepest monthly decline in over a year.
  • Orders for Chinese exports hit their lowest point since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to official data.
  • U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have reached 145%, with China retaliating at 125%, intensifying the standoff.

Diving Deeper:

Three weeks into a high-stakes trade war, President Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy is showing early signs of success — at least when it comes to putting economic pressure on America’s chief global rival. A new report from China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows the country’s manufacturing sector suffered its sharpest monthly slowdown in over a year. The cause? A dramatic drop in new export orders from the United States, where tariffs on Chinese-made goods have soared to 145%.

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.0 in April — a contraction level that underlines just how deeply U.S. tariffs are biting. It’s the first clear sign from China’s own official data that the trade measures imposed by President Trump are starting to weaken the export-reliant Chinese economy. A sub-index measuring new export orders reached its lowest point since the Covid-19 pandemic, and factory employment fell to levels not seen since early 2024.

Despite retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. goods, Beijing appears to be scrambling to shore up its economy. China’s government has unveiled a series of internal stimulus measures to boost consumer spending and stabilize employment. These include pension increases, subsidies, and a new law promising more protection for private businesses — a clear sign that confidence among Chinese entrepreneurs is eroding under Xi Jinping’s increasing centralization of economic power.

President Trump, on the other hand, remains defiant. “China was ripping us off like nobody’s ever ripped us off,” he said Tuesday in an interview, dismissing concerns that his policies would harm American consumers. He predicted Beijing would “eat those tariffs,” a statement that appears more prescient as China’s economic woes grow more apparent.

Still, the impact is not one-sided. Major U.S. companies like UPS and General Motors have warned of job cuts and revised earnings projections, respectively. Consumer confidence has also dipped. Yet the broader strategy from the Trump administration appears to be focused on playing the long game — applying sustained pressure on China to level the playing field for American workers and businesses.

Economists are warning of potential global fallout if the trade dispute lingers. However, Beijing may have more to lose. Analysts at Capital Economics now predict China’s growth will fall well short of its 5% target for the year, citing the strain on exports and weak domestic consumption. Meanwhile, Nomura Securities estimates up to 15.8 million Chinese jobs could be at risk if U.S. exports continue to decline.

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International

Javier Millei declassifies 1850+ files on Nazi leaders in Argentina

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Argentine President Javier Milei has ordered the declassification of over 1,850 historical documents detailing the presence and activities of Nazi officials in Argentina following World War II. The move grants global public access to once-restricted files on high-profile Nazi figures, including Josef Mengele and Adolf Eichmann.

Key Details:

  • The files are now publicly available online through an Argentine government portal.
  • Notable entries document the postwar movements and false identities of infamous Nazi war criminals, such as Mengele and Eichmann.
  • The declassified material was delivered to the Simon Wiesenthal Center to assist ongoing investigations into postwar Nazi financial networks.

Diving Deeper:

The decision by President Milei to declassify over 1,850 official records regarding Nazi officials in Argentina is a historic act of governmental transparency, and one that sheds further light on Argentina’s role as a haven for some of history’s most reviled war criminals.

Among the most chilling revelations are detailed police and immigration records concerning Josef Mengele, the SS doctor known as the “Angel of Death.” The files show Mengele arrived in Argentina in June 1949 using a falsified Italian identity under the name “Gregor Helmut,” facilitated by a passport issued by the International Red Cross. He successfully obtained Argentine legal status with help from the German embassy and remained in the country for years under official cover. Reports describe his profession as “manufacturer” and his later attempts to travel to both Chile and West Germany, supported by certificates of good conduct issued by local authorities.

Another document confirms that West Germany had requested Mengele’s extradition to face a life sentence, yet Argentina denied the request, citing procedural technicalities and taking no action—a decision that allowed Mengele to continue living in freedom in South America until his death in Brazil in 1979.

The files also include information on Adolf Eichmann, one of the chief architects of the Holocaust’s “Final Solution,” who lived in Argentina until his dramatic capture by Israeli Mossad agents in 1960. Additionally, declassified material references Martin Bormann, Hitler’s personal secretary, and Walter Kutschmann, a Gestapo officer responsible for mass atrocities in Poland who lived under an alias in Miramar.

The Argentine government stated that these files were compiled through investigations by the Foreign Affairs Directorate of the Federal Police, the State Intelligence Secretariat (SIDE), and the National Gendarmerie from the 1950s through the 1980s. Until this release, the information could only be viewed in a tightly controlled section of Argentina’s General Archive of the Nation.

The newly declassified files were also handed over to the Simon Wiesenthal Center, supporting its research into financial ties between Nazi officials and institutions like the Swiss-based Credit Suisse. The decision follows a February agreement between President Milei and representatives of the center.

Chief of Staff Guillermo Francos made it clear that this release was at the personal direction of Milei, noting in March, “President Milei gave the instruction to release all documentation [on Nazis who fled to Argentina after World War II] that exists in any State agency, because there is no reason to continue safeguarding that information.”

(AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)

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