Ottawa’s oil and gas emissions cap will hit Alberta with a wallop

Even if Canada eliminated all its GHG emissions expected in 2030 due to the federal cap, the emission reduction would equal only four-tenths of one per cent of global emissions—a reduction unlikely to have any impact on the trajectory of the climate in any detectable manner or produce any related environmental, health or safety benefits.

After considerable waiting, the Trudeau government released on Monday draft regulations to cap greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canada’s oil and gas producers.

The proposed regulations would set a cap on GHG emissions equivalent to 35 per cent of the emissions produced in 2019 and create a GHG emissions “cap and trade” system to enable oil and gas producers (who cannot reduce emissions enough to avoid the cap) to buy credits from other producers able to meet the cap. Producers unable to meet the cap will also be able to obtain emission credits (of up to 20 per cent of their needed emission reductions) by investing in decarbonization programs or by buying emission “offsets” in Canada’s carbon markets.

According to the government, the cap will “cap pollution, drive innovation, and create jobs in the oil and gas industry.” But in reality, while the cap may well cap pollution and drive some innovation, according to several recent analyses it won’t create jobs in the oil and gas industry and will in fact kill many jobs.

For example, the Conference Board of Canada think-tank estimates that the cap would reduce Canada’s GDP by up to $1 trillion between 2030 and 2040, kill up to 151,300 jobs across Canada by 2030, and national economic growth from 2023 to 2030 would slow from 15.3 per cent to 14.3 per cent.

Not surprisingly, Alberta would be hardest hit. According to the Board, from 2023 to 2030, the province’s economic growth would fall from an estimated 17.8 per cent to 13.3 per cent and employment growth would fall from 15.8 per cent to 13.6 per cent over the same period. Alberta government revenues from the sector would decline by 4.5 per cent in 2030 compared to a scenario without the cap. As a result, Alberta government revenues would be $4.5 billion lower in nominal terms in fiscal year 2030/31. And between 54,000 to 91,500 of Canada’s job losses would occur in Alberta.

Another study by Deloitte estimates that, due to the federal cap, Alberta will see 3.6 per cent less investment, almost 70,000 fewer jobs, and a 4.5 per cent decrease in the province’s economic output (i.e. GDP) by 2040. Ontario would lose more than 15,000 jobs and $2.3 billion from its economy by 2040. And Quebec would lose more than 3,000 jobs and $0.4 billion from its economy during the same period.

Overall, according to Deloitte, Canada would experience an economic loss equivalent to 1.0 per cent of GDP, translating into lower wages, the loss of nearly 113,000 jobs and a 1.3 per cent reduction in government tax revenues. (For context, Canada’s economic growth in 2023 was only 1.1 per cent.)

And what will Canadians get for all that economic pain?

In my study published last year by the Fraser Institute, I found that, even if Canada eliminated all its GHG emissions expected in 2030 due to the federal cap, the emission reduction would equal only four-tenths of one per cent of global emissions—a reduction unlikely to have any impact on the trajectory of the climate in any detectable manner or produce any related environmental, health or safety benefits.

Clearly, the Trudeau government’s new proposed emissions cap on the oil and gas sector will impose significant harms on Canada’s economy, Canadian workers and our quality of life—and hit Alberta with a wallop. And yet, as a measure intended to avert harmful climate change, it’s purely performative (like many of the government’s other GHG regulations) and will generate too little emission reductions to have any meaningful impact on the climate.

In a world of rational policy development, where the benefits of government regulations are supposed to exceed their costs, policymakers would never consider this proposed cap. The Trudeau government will submit the plan to Parliament, and if the cap becomes law, it will await some other future government to undo the damage inflicted on Canadians and their families.

Author:

Kenneth P. Green

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

Related Topics:#FraserInstitute #KennethGreen #TrudeauGovernment EmissionReductionPlan FederalOilAndGasEmissionsCap GHGEmissionsCap oilandgas

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Alberta

Published on December 8, 2024

Todayville

Harshanedeep Singh from rozanaspokesman.com

News release from the Conservative Party of Canada

After nine years, the NDP-Liberal government has lost control of crime. Violent crime has skyrocketed by 50 percent since Trudeau became Prime Minister and 256 people were killed by a criminal who was out on bail or another form of release in 2022, the latest year available with full data.

On Saturday, Canadians witnessed the shocking, heinous murder of Harshandeep Singh, a 20-year-old security guard in Edmonton, Alberta. Singh was shot in the back while thanklessly doing his job as a nighttime security guard at a central Edmonton apartment building. A promising young life was snuffed out by a cold-blooded monster.

“One cannot imagine how Harshandeep’s family and friends feel,” said Tim Uppal, Deputy Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. “Our thoughts and prayers go out to his family at this incredibly difficult time.”

Edmonton Police have since arrested two individuals and charged them with first degree murder: “Evan Rain, 30, and Judith Saulteaux, 30, were arrested and charged with 1st degree murder in relation to Singh’s death.”

Early indications suggest that Rain has a known prior violent history, with media reports aligning with Rain’s current age. In 2018, an “Evan Chase Francis Rain”, then age 24, was charged for a violent kidnapping in Wetaskiwin, one hour south of Edmonton. A woman was forced into the trunk of a car at gunpoint. It is not clear from media reports how this case was concluded.

In 2022, “Evan Rain, 28, of Paul First Nation” (45 minutes west of Edmonton) faced twenty-nine charges for a violent robbery in northern Saskatchewan involving firearms.

This is from the 2022 RCMP news release at the time:

Evan Rain, 28, of Paul First Nation, is charged with:

-one count, robbery, Section 344, Criminal Code;
-one count, have face masked with intent to commit an indictable offence, Section 351(2), Criminal Code;
-eight counts, possess a firearm knowing it was obtained by the commission of an offence, Section 96(2), Criminal Code;
-one count, possession of property obtained by the commission of an offence, Section 354(1)(a), Criminal Code;
-one count, mischief under $5,000, Section 430(4), Criminal Code;
-sixteen counts, possess a firearm while prohibited, Section 117-01(3), Criminal Code; and
-one count, point a firearm, Section 87(2), Criminal Code.

The status of these charges is not readily apparent. The RCMP’s 2022 news release does make clear that Rain was already prohibited from possessing firearms: “sixteen counts, possess a firearm while prohibited, Section 117-01(3).”

“It appears that our so-called ‘justice’ system terribly failed Harshandeep Singh – just as it has outrageously failed so many others,” said Uppal. “Harshandeep Singh’s murder cannot be accepted as just an unfortunate, unavoidable reality in our society. Authorities should answer to Rain’s prior police interactions and potential criminal history, including whether he was out on bail or some other form of release order.”

Life wasn’t like this before Justin Trudeau. Since the NDP-Liberal government passed Bill C-75 and Bill C-5, which gave high priority to releasing repeat violent offenders and took away mandatory jail time for certain violent crimes, a crime wave has been unleashed across the country. This was evident in a report from the Fraser Institute which showed that Canada’s violent crime rate is 14 percent higher than that of the United States’.

Trudeau’s only response to this has been to crack down on law-abiding firearms owners and Indigenous hunters which has done nothing to improve Canada’s public safety. Instead, violent gun crime is up by a staggering 116 percent since the Liberals formed government.

Enough is Enough. Canadians deserve to feel safe in their communities. Only Common Sense Conservatives will bring home safe streets by ending Justin Trudeau’s catch-and-release justice system and bringing jail, not bail, for repeat violent offenders.

Alberta

Alberta passes bill banning men from competing in women’s sports   

Published on December 7, 2024

Todayville

From LifeSiteNews

By Anthony Murdoch

On Tuesday, MLAs voted 47 to 33 to pass into law the Fairness and Safety in Sport Act (FASISA). The New Democratic Party MLAs all voted against the bill, with Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP MLAs all voting in favour of it.

Alberta’s governing United Conservative Party (UCP) government has passed a bill that bans gender-confused men from competing in women’s sports, the first legislation of its kind in Canada.  

On Tuesday, MLAs voted 47 to 33 to pass into law the Fairness and Safety in Sport Act (FASISA). The New Democratic Party MLAs all voted against the bill, with Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP MLAs all voting in favour of it.

The proposed law, known as Bill 29, or the Fairness and Safety in Sport Act, will apply to all school boards, universities, as well as provincial sports organizations. It was introduced into the Alberta legislature last month.

Alberta’s Minister of Tourism and Sport Joseph Schow moved the third reading of FASISA, which now awaits Royal Assent which will be coming in the next few days.

Schow said about the passing of the bill that it will create fairness and safety in sports in Alberta for “young women and girls, and it is to them that I dedicate this speech and this bill because, Mr. Speaker, it is incumbent upon us as a government to create an environment that is fair and safe for all young girls and women who want to compete.”

“Sports teach you how to overcome challenges, how to strive for your personal best, how to respect your opponents, and that is something that even comes in handy in this house,” he added.

The Smith government says that the regulations created under the Act “will clarify specific requirements for these policies, including limiting eligibility for female-only divisions to female-born athletes,” but also added that it will “support the formation of additional co-ed divisions inclusive of transgender athletes.” 

The government said that it consulted sports organizations as well as schools and universities when drafting the bill.  

The exact details on how the bill will be developed practically speaking will happen over the coming months.

The move comes after studies have repeatedly revealed what almost everyone already knew was true, namely, that males have a considerable advantage over women in athletics. 

Indeed, a recent study published in Sports Medicine found that a year of “transgender” hormone drugs results in “very modest changes” in the inherent strength advantages of men. 

The passage of the law banning men from competing in women’s sports came at the same time the Smith government passed a bill banning so-called “top and bottom” surgeries for minors as well as other extreme forms of transgender ideology.