Ottawa’s emissions cap—all pain, no gain

From the Fraser Institute

By: Julio Mejía, Elmira Aliakbari and Tegan Hill

According to a recent analysis by the Conference Board of Canada think-tank, the cap could reduce Canada’s GDP by up to $1 trillion between 2030 and 2040, eliminate up to 151,000 jobs by 2030, reduce federal government revenue by up to $151 billion between 2030 and 2040, and reduce Alberta government revenue by up to $127 billion over the same period.

According to an announcements last week by Premier Danielle Smith, the Alberta government will use the Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act to challenge Ottawa’s proposal to cap greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector at 35 per cent below 2019 levels by 2030.

Premier Smith, who said the cap will harm the economy and represents an overstep of federal authority, also plans to prevent emissions data from individual oil and gas companies from being shared with Ottawa. While the federal government said the cap is necessary to fight climate change, several studies suggest the cap will impose significant costs on Canadians without yielding detectable environmental benefits.

According to a recent report by Deloitte, a leading audit and consulting firm, the cap will force Canadian firms to curtail oil production by 626,000 barrels per day by 2030 or by approximately 10.0 per cent of the expected production—and curtail gas production by approximately 12.0 per cent.

Deloitte estimates that Alberta will be hit hardest, with 3.6 per cent less investment, almost 70,000 fewer jobs, and a 4.5 per cent decrease in the province’s economic output (i.e. GDP) by 2040. Ontario will lose 15,000 jobs and $2.3 billion from its economy by 2040. And Quebec will lose more than 3,000 jobs and $0.4 billion from its economy during the same period.

Overall, the country will experience an economic loss equivalent to 1.0 per cent of the value of the entire economy (GDP), translating into lower wages, the loss of nearly 113,000 jobs and a 1.3 per cent reduction in government tax revenues. Canada’s inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2023 was a paltry 1.3 per cent, so a 1 per cent reduction would be a significant economic loss.

Deloitte’s findings echo previous studies. According to a recent analysis by the Conference Board of Canada think-tank, the cap could reduce Canada’s GDP by up to $1 trillion between 2030 and 2040, eliminate up to 151,000 jobs by 2030, reduce federal government revenue by up to $151 billion between 2030 and 2040, and reduce Alberta government revenue by up to $127 billion over the same period.

Similarly, another recent study published by the Fraser Institute found that the cap would reduce production and exports, leading to at least $45 billion in lost economic activity in 2030 alone, accompanied by a substantial drop in government revenue.

Crucially, these huge economic costs to Canadians will come without any discernable environmental benefits. Even if Canada entirely shut down its oil and gas industry by 2030, eliminating all GHG emissions from the sector, the resulting reduction in global GHG emissions would amount to a mere four-tenths of one per cent with virtually no impact on the climate or any detectable environmental, health or safety benefits.

Given the demand for fossil fuels, constraining oil and gas production and exports in Canada would likely merely shift production to other countries with lower environmental and human rights standards such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela. Consequently, global GHG emissions would increase, not decrease. No other major oil and gas-producing country has imposed a similar cap on its leading export sector.

The Trudeau government’s proposed cap, which still must pass the House and Senate, would further strain an already struggling Canadian economy, and to make matters worse, do virtually nothing to improve the environment. The government should cancel the cap plan given the economic costs and nonexistent environmental benefits.

Julio Mejía

Policy Analyst

Elmira Aliakbari

Director, Natural Resource Studies, Fraser Institute

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

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Unleashing American Energy: America’s Silver Bullet

Published on January 14, 2025

Todayville

Alex Epstein

It’s said that in politics there’s no silver bullet that’ll make everything better.

But we do have 1 silver bullet in the chamber: the opportunity to unleash American energy, which Donald Trump has rightly vowed to do.

The single most important thing government can do to make our lives better—something that will lead to a better economy, a lower cost of living, more job opportunities, a lower deficit, greater security, and a better environment—is unleash abundant, affordable, American energy.
If we unleash abundant, affordable, American oil, natural gas, and coal production from the anti-energy policies holding it back, we can go from crippling inflation—substantially driven by energy costs—to affordable food, housing, transportation, and heating bills.
Unleashing American energy will take us from nationwide electricity shortages to affordable, reliable power for all—and from losing good job opportunities to China, which we’ve allowed to outcompete us on energy costs, to creating millions of new well-paying jobs here at home.
Unleashing American energy will take us from begging OPEC+ for oil, depending on Russia for uranium, and being at China’s mercy for critical minerals, to producing an abundant and secure supply of these crucial commodities at home.
Many Americans are hesitant to embrace policies that unleash abundant, affordable energy because they think it will harm environmental progress—progress in air and water quality, safety from climate, and enjoyment of nature. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Environmental progress isn’t in conflict with abundant, affordable energy; it requires abundant, affordable energy—to afford pollution controls, to clean up natural environmental hazards, and to protect ourselves from the always-dynamic and dangerous climate.

Thanks to abundant, affordable energy, America has been wealthy enough to innovate and adopt pollution controls that make our air far cleaner—which is why America was able to increase its fossil fuel use 25% since 1970 while reducing air pollution 78%.¹

Thanks to abundant, affordable energy, America has been able to clean up natural environmental hazards such as undrinkable water, which requires affordable, reliable energy to purify, or mosquito-infested swamps, which require abundant, affordable energy to drain.

Thanks to abundant, affordable energy, we can protect ourselves from the always-dangerous climate by powering heating and A/C systems, storm warning and evacuation systems, and irrigation systems; witness the 98% drop in climate-related disaster deaths over the last century.²

Thanks to abundant, affordable energy we have the wealth we need to enjoy and preserve the most valuable and beautiful parts of nature—which is why America is able to be both the world’s economic superpower and a place of unsurpassed access to the great outdoors.
The key to supporting America’s energy abundance and environmental progress is maintaining steadfast support of individual and economic freedom, including the protection of property rights.
Property rights allow our energy companies to produce and innovate as they judge best. The shale revolution happened here because we alone protect underground property rights. Producers used this freedom to figure out how to extract abundant oil and gas from once-useless rocks.
Property rights allow us to care for our environment on our own property—and people tend to care best for what they own. And property rights are the basis for laws protecting our air and water from dangerous levels of pollution.
America has shown time and again that pro-freedom energy and environmental policies drive energy and environmental progress. And we can do it again, if we reverse the anti-freedom policies of the past several decades and embrace the following “energy freedom” policies.
To aid America in unleashing American energy, I’ve created the Energy Freedom Plan—a comprehensive plan that includes hundreds of high-leverage policy changes for every aspect of energy, from drilling to pipelines to electricity to nuclear to rare earth elements.
The Energy Freedom Plan is based on 5 game-changing goals:
1. Unleash responsible development
2. End preferences for unreliable electricity
3. Set environmental standards using cost-benefit analysis
4. Address climate danger through resilience and innovation
5. Unleash nuclear energy
Unleash responsible development
Anti-development policies prevent the drilling, mining, transporting, and building all energy needs to reach its potential—from natural gas to nuclear to solar.

Liberating responsible development will create unprecedented US energy abundance.
End preferences for unreliable electricity
Our grid is being ruined by systemic preferences for unreliable electricity, which cause prices to rise and reliability to decline.

Ending these preferences and prioritizing reliability is needed to make power cheap and reliable again.
Set environmental standards using cost-benefit analysis
The EPA harms prosperity and health via emissions standards that impose huge costs for little or no benefit.

Real cost-benefit analysis, including objective health science will promote prosperity and environmental quality.
Address climate danger through resilience and innovation, not punishing America
“Climate policy”” that singles out US emissions makes us poorer and less resilient while global emissions go up.
Becoming more resilient and unleashing innovation are the keys to climate safety.
Unleash nuclear energy from pseudo-scientific restrictions
The strangulation of nuclear has made it 10 times more expensive than it needs to be.
Unleashing nuclear, including getting rid of pseudoscientific policies like LNT and ALARA, will make possible a nuclear renaissance.
This week I will be releasing the FULL Energy Freedom Plan, including over 100 SPECIFIC game-changing policies that can unleash American energy like never before.
To make sure you see the whole plan, follow me @AlexEpstein and especially subscribe to alexepstein.substack.com.

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1 https://www.epa.gov/air-trends

2 UC San Diego – The Keeling Curve

For every million people on earth, annual deaths from climate-related causes (extreme temperature, drought, flood, storms, wildfires) declined 98%–from an average of 247 per year during the 1920s to 2.5 per year during the 2010s.

Data on disaster deaths come from EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, Brussels, Belgium – www.emdat.be (D. Guha-Sapir).

Population estimates for the 1920s from the Maddison Database 2010, the Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Faculty of Economics and Business at University of Groningen. For years not shown, population is assumed to have grown at a steady rate.

Population estimates for the 2010s come from World Bank Data.

Alberta

Premier Danielle Smith: Immediate Federal Election needed to deal with Trump Tariffs

Published on January 14, 2025

Todayville

From CPAC on YouTube

In a virtual news conference, Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta, discusses her meetings with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in West Palm Beach, Florida. Smith met with Trump to discuss the incoming president’s repeated threats to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico.