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Midwest awaits spring-like thaw just days after bitter cold

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CHICAGO — The bitter cold that gripped the Midwest forced commuters to bundle up like polar explorers. By early next week, many of those same people might get by with a light jacket.

Just days after the arctic conditions, forecasts say, the region will seemingly swing into another season, with temperatures climbing by as much as 80 degrees. Experts say the rapid thaw is unprecedented, and it could create problems of its own — bursting pipes, flooding rivers and crumbling roads.

“I don’t think there’s ever been a case where we’ve seen (such a big) shift in temperatures” in the winter, said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the Weather Underground firm. “Past record-cold waves have not dissipated this quickly. … Here we are going right into spring-like temperatures.”

Although many places remained painfully cold Thursday, the deep freeze eased somewhat, and the system marched east. In western New York, a storm that dumped up to 20 inches of snow (51 centimetres) gave way to subzero temperatures and face-stinging wind chills. In New York City, about 200 firefighters battling a blaze in a commercial building took turns getting warm on buses.

The number of deaths that could be blamed on the cold climbed to at least 16 after a man was found frozen in his backyard in a Milwaukee suburb on Thursday, the same day temperatures plunged to record lows in several Midwestern cities.

But relief from the bitter Midwestern cold is as close as the weekend. Rockford, Illinois, was at a record-breaking minus 31 degrees (minus 35 Celsius) on Thursday morning but should be around 50 degrees (10 Celsius) on Monday. Other previously frozen areas could see temperatures of 55 degrees (13 Celsius) or higher.

The dramatic warm-up will offer a respite from the bone-chilling cold that cancelled school, closed businesses and halted trains. But potholes will appear on roads and bridges weakened by the freeze-thaw cycle. The same cycle can crack water mains and homeowners’ pipes. Scores of vehicles will be left with flat tires and bent rims.

Joe Buck, who manages Schmit Towing in Minneapolis and spent about 20 hours a day outdoors this week responding to stranded vehicle calls, said he’s already taking calls for Monday to deal with a backlog of hundreds of stalled vehicles.

“Sunday is going to be 39 degrees ABOVE zero,” said Buck, who has had 18 trucks running around the clock in wind chills that dropped to minus 50 degrees (negative 45.5 Celsius).

In Detroit, where some water mains are almost 150 years old, city workers were dealing with dozens of breaks, said Palencia Mobley, deputy director of the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department.

The thawing of the pipes can sometimes inflict greater damage than the initial freeze. Bursts can occur when ice inside starts to melt and water rushes through the pipe or when water in the pipe is pushed to a closed faucet by expanding ice.

Elsewhere, a bridge in the western Michigan community of Newaygo, 40 miles (64 kilometres) north of Grand Rapids was closed as the ice-jammed Muskegon River rose above flood stage. Officials in Buffalo, New York, watched for flooding on the Upper Niagara River because of ice.

In other signs that the worst of the deep freeze was ending, Xcel Energy on Thursday lifted a request to its Minnesota natural gas customers to temporarily lower their thermostats to ease concerns about the fuel supply.

Earlier in the day, several cities set record lows, including Cedar Rapids, Iowa, which set a daily record low of minus 30 degrees (minus 34 Celsius).

Chicago’s temperature dropped to a low of around minus 21 degrees (minus 30 Celsius) on Thursday, slightly above the city’s lowest-ever reading of minus 27 degrees (minus 32 Celsius) in January 1985. Milwaukee’s low was minus 25 degrees (minus 31 Celsius), and Minneapolis recorded minus 24 degrees (minus 31 Celsius). Wind chills were lower still.

Masters, from Weather Underground, said the polar vortex was “rotating up into Canada” and not expected to return in the next couple of weeks. If it does return in late February, “it won’t be as intense.”

Still, memories of the dangerous cold were bound to linger.

In Illinois, at least 144 people visited hospital emergency rooms for cold-related injuries over two days. Most of the injuries were hypothermia or frostbite, according to a spokesman for the state Department of Public Health.

The effect on the overall economy was not expected to be that great.

“It only shows up marginally in the economic data,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, who ended up working from home because her offices in Chicago were shut because of weather.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said one reason the severe cold weather will have less impact is that, unlike a hurricane, people did not lose electric power.

“People may be in their homes, but they can do things such as online shopping,” Zandi said. “Life goes on. It is a disruption to daily life, but it is not a big hit to the economy.”

___

Karoub reported from Detroit. Associated Press writers Martin Crutsinger in Washington; David Eggert in Lansing, Michigan; Amy Forliti in Minneapolis; Corey Williams and Ed White in Detroit; Blake Nicholson in Bismarck, North Dakota; and Caryn Rousseau and Michael Tarm in Chicago contributed to this story.

Tammy Webber And Jeff Karoub, The Associated Press









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Agriculture

Moisture situation in Alberta following warm and dry first half of winter

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Agricultural Moisture Situation Update – January 3, 2024

Synopsis

This year’s El Niño has developed into a strong El Niño and currently has a 54% chance of developing into a “historically strong” event, according to NOAA. Current forecasts are projecting El Niño to diminish in April 2024. In the past for Alberta, not all El Niño’s have resulted in warmer and drier weather; however, this unusually warm and dry winter will forever be tied to the 2023-2024 El Niño and will serve as an important data point in the future.

In the 90-days since October 6, 2023, temperatures have remained well above average, with many parts of the northern-half of the province seeing temperatures this warm less than once in 50 years (Map 1). This coupled with low precipitation accumulations has resulted in virtually snow free
conditions across parts of all four of our agricultural regions
(Map 2).

Winter Precipitation Accumulations

November 1, 2023 to January 3, 2024

Since November 1st, the unofficial start to winter in Alberta, precipitation has been well below average across much of Alberta’s agricultural areas (Map 3).

Most of the lands south of Grande Prairie and north of Ponoka are estimated to have a winter thus far, this dry on average, less than once in 50-years. Dry conditions have also persisted across the Central and Southern Regions, ranging from a few widely scattered pockets of near normal to at least once in 25 year lows, centered around the Jenner area (approx. 200 km east of Calgary). Total accumulations currently range from less than 3 mm through parts of the North West and North East Regions up to only 20-30 mm along the foothills and through the western and northern portions of the Peace Region (Map 4).

For the dryer parts of the North West and North East Regions this translates to less than 10% of the 1991-2020 average (Map 5).

Elsewhere, most other lands have received precipitation accumulations that have generally been less
than 50% of the 1991-2020 average.

Perspective

From an annual moisture budget perspective, October through to March generally mark the dry season across the agricultural areas (Map 6), accounting for only about 20% of average annual accumulations across most of the Southern Region, to upwards of 30-35% across the Peace Region.

These significant moisture deficits thus far (50% of the way through the dry season), while discouraging to many, make up only a small portion of the annual moisture budget for an area. Winter is not over yet and if the current forecast is correct, a significant cold snap is on its way over the next few days and it is expected to persist well into next week, perhaps even longer. Along with the cold snap, there is also a forecast for moisture and the promise of at least some snow cover across many areas.

Spring is yet many weeks away and anything can happen between now and then. Furthermore, February on average, is the driest month of the year with most agricultural lands normally receiving less than 15 mm of moisture during this month (Map 6). Let’s hope, for the sake of our producers,
that we descend into at least near “normal” winter conditions and that we see one of Alberta’s famous weather reversals, with respect to moisture. Above average snow fall is very much needed now. Much of the land is extremely dry and has been held tenaciously in the grip of a long-lasting dry
cycle that needs to end soon!

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Alberta

With hail storms this size it’s a miracle no one was killed

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Monday, August 1st will be a day hundreds of Albertans will never forget.  The hail storm that devastated an area of Central Alberta resulted in a series of terrifying experiences for motorists on the QE II, especially around Antler Hill, just north of Innisfail. This is a map of the area most affected by the largest hail stones most have seen in their lifetimes.

Yes we’ve all heard people talk about “baseball” or “tennis ball” sized hail in the past.  In this case, those comparisons are simply too small!

Now you can imagine how terrifying it must have been to be caught driving on the QE II south of Red Deer and north of Innisfail during this storm on Monday, August 1st.  Here’s what that felt like, courtesy of Gibran Marquez as posted on the Facebook Page Alberta Storm Reports

This couple was remarkably calm considering the battering they were experiencing!

 

The immediate aftermath.

 

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