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Alberta

Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

Published

3 days ago

3 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.

The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.

Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.

Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.

Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.

Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.

The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.

Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.

Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.

And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.

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Alberta

Hours after Liberal election win, Alberta Prosperity Project drumming up interest in referendum

Published on April 29, 2025

By

News release from the Alberta Prosperity Project

Carney’s In. Now what?

You’ve been paying attention. You understand this is really bad. Worse than that, it’s dangerous. The country has somehow chosen several more years of a decade-long Trudeau Travesty…on steroids. Because this new Prime Minister has a three digit IQ, deep and questionable connections and a momentum to accelerate the further dis-integration of a nation we all once proudly belonged to. It’s untrue to say the country is dying. But it’s also not a stretch to say it’s on life support.

The era of Carney Carnage is here. While every province will experience it, there’s no secret he’s placed an extra big bulls-eye on Alberta.

It’s not personal, it’s financial.

His plan includes continuing to limit three of Alberta’s most prosperous sectors: energy, agriculture and, by extension, innovation. To acknowledge this requires we abandon our sense of romanticized national nostalgia. Nostalgia is a trap that prevents us from assessing the reality we exist in.

For instance, GDP is considered the financial heartbeat of a country. Over the past decade of Liberal Leadership, the national GDP has been an abysmal 1.1%. By relatable comparison, Mexico was 4%, the UK was 6%, Australia had 8% growth and the US was a whopping 19%.

That’s great information for an economist, but what does it mean to your pay cheque?

The everyday impact on the average Albertan —say, a teacher or mechanic— of 10 long years of 1% GDP means rent’s up at least 25%, a trip to the grocery store always stings, and driving an older car is the norm because an upgrade is out of reach. Does this sound like your reality?

We aren’t starving, but we’re not thriving, either.

Does this make sense for 4.5 million people living with the third most abundant energy deposits in the world? There’s an absurdity to the situation Albertans find themselves in. It’s akin to being chronically dehydrated while having a fresh water spring in the backyard.

The life you’ve invested for, the future you believed was ahead, isn’t happening.

If Alberta stays on this path.

So what can you, as an Albertan, do about it?

This Fall, we’ll be provided an opportunity. A life raft in the form of a referendum. It requires curiosity, imagination and courage to step into it, but the option will be there — a once in a lifetime shot at prosperity for you and your family: Alberta Sovereignty.

A successful bid means Albertans can finally paddle out of the perilous economic current that’s battered us for ten long years.

Alberta has the resources, talent and spirit of collaboration to create a prosperous future for our families and communities.
If you want your vote to finally mean something, if you feel you deserve more from your pay-cheque, grocery store visits and  need greater control over your family’s future, register your intent to sign YES to sovereignty now.

UPCOMING EVENTS: 

Click here to see all upcoming APP events.

WHAT CAN ALBERTANS DO?

Register Your Intent To Vote “YES”
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Alberta

New Alberta Election Act bans electronic vote counting machines, lowers threshold for recalls and petitions

Published on April 29, 2025

By

Alberta’s government is introducing changes to protect democracy, deliver fair and open elections and increase confidence in every vote cast.

Voting gives Albertans a voice in shaping the future of our province. Direct democracy processes like referendums, recall and citizen initiative petitions provide further opportunities for Albertans to be heard and express their views. The proposed Election Statutes Amendment Act, 2025, would make Alberta’s elections and other democratic processes more open, secure and accessible.

“I believe that democracy thrives when people trust the process. These changes would make elections at every level in Alberta more accessible and transparent while protecting their integrity, ensuring confidence in the outcomes. We are also creating more opportunities for Albertans to be involved in direct democracy and to have their say on issues that matter to them.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

Fair and free elections are the foundation of democracy, and Alberta’s government is taking action to protect them. The proposed changes include:

  • Banning the use of electronic tabulators and other automated voting machines, requiring all ballots to be counted by hand to protect election integrity.
  • Eliminating vouching at voting stations to strengthen identification and verification processes.
  • Requiring unofficial vote counts to be completed within 12 hours of polls closing to provide timely, reliable results.
  • Voters being required to cast their ballot in their constituency of residence or by requesting a special ballot.
  • Expanding access to special ballots, allowing any voter to request one without needing to provide a reason while protecting integrity by requiring voters to personally request their special ballot (with exceptions for those needing assistance due to a disability).
  • Updating the Recall Act to make it easier for Albertans to hold elected officials accountable by lowering the signature threshold and extending the timeframe to collect signatures.
  • Improving the Citizen Initiative Act process by setting the threshold for all successful petitions at 10 per cent of eligible voters who participated in the last general election.

“Albertans rightly expect their government to make sure democratic processes are fair and transparent with accurate and timely results. These proposed amendments would deliver on my mandate to review and make changes to strengthen public trust in the integrity of our elections.”

Mickey Amery, Minister of Justice and Attorney General

Additional amendments under the Election Statutes Amendment Act, 2025 would:

  • Allow corporate and union contributions for provincial elections while maintaining transparency and accountability through existing financial disclosure requirements.
  • Improve access to voting for First Nations and Métis Settlements during referendums and Senate elections.
  • Enhance emergency response provisions for voting disruptions during referendums and Senate elections.

These changes would help ensure that Alberta’s democratic processes are open, secure, and reflective of the will of Albertans, while creating new opportunities for greater public participation.

Quick facts

  • The Election Act governs the process for provincial elections, by-elections and plebiscites in Alberta and creates the office of the chief electoral officer, the head of Elections Alberta.
  • The Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act governs the financing of provincial elections, Senate elections and referendums, including rules for registered political parties, constituency associations, candidates, leadership contestants and third parties.
  • The Alberta Senate Election Act governs the process for Senate elections in Alberta.
  • The Referendum Act governs the process for referendums in Alberta.
  • The Recall Act outlines the process for Albertans to initiate the recall of an elected MLA.
  • The Citizen Initiative Act allows eligible voters in Alberta to propose legislative or policy initiatives, constitutional referendum questions and establishes rules for advertising and spending.
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