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Job growth in government exceeded the private sector in 8 out of 10 provinces from 2019-23

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From the Fraser Institute

By Ben Eisen and Milagros Palacios

In eight of 10 provinces the rate of government job growth has been higher than the private sector, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“Canada’s net job creation in recent years has been disproportionately driven by growth in government employment rather than growth in the private sector, and as of 2019, government employment as a share of total employment in the country is at its highest point since the mid-1990s,” said Ben Eisen, Fraser Institute senior fellow and co-author of Economic Recovery in Canada before and after COVID: Job Growth in the Government and Private Sectors.

The study finds that historically, no other recent era of recession and recovery in Canada have been so dominated by government sector job growth compared to private sector job growth.

During the recession and recovery periods related to the COVID-19 recession (2019-2023), government employment across the country, including federal, provincial and municipal increased by 13.0 per cent compared to just 3.6 per cent in the private sector (including self-employment.)

In every Canadian province save for Alberta and Nova Scotia, employment in the government sector expanded at a higher rate than the private sector. In BC, employment growth in the private sector (including self-employment) rose only by 0.5 per cent during the period compared to 22.0 per cent in the government sector. Ontario’s public sector experienced triple the growth the private sector had, with 14.6 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively.

The study also compares the current recession and recovery in Canada to the United States, where the private sector has generated a large majority of all new jobs in recent years. In Canada, the government sector is responsible for 46.7 per cent of total job growth from 2019-203 compared to 16.1 per cent in the United States.

“Canada has seen a much higher rate of job growth in the government sector than the private sector in recent years, which is a concerning trend given that job growth and wealth creation in the private sector are needed to finance the activities of governments,” said Eisen.

  • Several past analyses published by the Fraser Institute have shown that in recent years net job creation in the government sector has dramatically outstripped private-sector job creation.
  • This publication updates these data, showing that during the recession brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic and the following recovery (2019–2023), government employment has increased by 13.0% while employment in the private sector (including self-employment) increased just 3.6%
  • We further expand past analysis by comparing the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 recession to past periods of economic recession and recovery.
  • We find that the extent to which the current economic recovery is driven by government job growth is historically unusual. We compare the current economic environment to five past economic recessions and slowdowns and find that none of those recoveries were nearly as reliant on job creation in the government sector.
  • We also compare the current recession and recovery in Canada to that in the United States, which differs sharply. In the United States, the private sector has generated a large majority of all new jobs in recent years and the rate of net job creation in the private sector has been nearly identical to that in the government sector.
  • As a result of disproportionately faster growth in the public-sector employment, government’s share of employment post-COVID is higher than at any point since the fiscal consolidations of the 1990s.

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While Canada’s population explodes, the federal workforce grows even faster

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From the Fraser Institute

By Ben Eisen and Milagros Palacios

Hiring by the federal government in excess of population growth cost taxpayers $7.5 billion in 2022/23.

The federal workforce has grown more rapidly than the Canadian population starting in 2015/16, imposing significant costs on taxpayers, finds a new study published by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think tank.

Federal government employment has grown significantly faster than the Canadian population starting in 2015/16, and we’re already seeing the consequences,” said Ben Eisen, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Growing Government Workforce Puts Pressure on Federal Finances, the first in a series of studies on federal reform.

The study finds that between 2015/16 and 2022/23, the latest year of data available, the number of full-time federal workers has increased by 26.1 per cent compared to growth in the overall Canadian population of 9.1 per cent.

“Growth in federal employment has almost tripled the rate of population growth since 2015/16, which is simply unsustainable” commented Eisen.

How much will this growth in government cost Canadian taxpayers?

According to the study, if federal hiring had simply kept pace with the rate of Canada’s population growth taxpayers would have saved $7.5 billion.

The reduced spending on federal employees would lower the federal deficit, which is expected to exceed $35.3 billion in 2022/23.

“The growth in the number of federal employees has been a major contributor to the growth in federal government spending and the size of deficits in recent years,” Eisen said.

  • The Canadian federal government workforce has grown more rapidly than the Canadian population starting in 2015/16, imposing significant costs on taxpayers.
  • In fact, between 2015/16 and 2022/23, the latest year of data available, the number of full-time federal government workers has increased by 26.1 per cent, compared to growth in the overall Canadian population of 9.1 per cent.
  • If federal hiring had simply kept pace with the rate of Canada’s population growth taxpayers would have saved $7.5 billion.
  • The reduced spending on federal employees would lower the federal deficit, which is expected to exceed $35.3 billion in 2022/23.

Ben Eisen

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

Milagros Palacios

Director, Addington Centre for Measurement, Fraser Institute
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From Smug to Subservient, Justin Trudeau Bows to MAGA Realities at Mar-a-Lago

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The Opposition with Dan Knight

After years of mocking Trump and betting on a woke Washington, Trudeau now finds himself groveling to save Canada’s economy from MAGA’s hardball tactics.

Justin Trudeau has spent years mocking and deriding the MAGA movement, banking on a continuation of woke, progressive leadership in Washington. He bet everything on a Kamala Harris presidency, believing the days of Donald Trump’s America-first agenda were a distant memory. Now, with Trump back in office, Trudeau finds himself groveling at Mar-a-Lago, trying to salvage what’s left of Canada’s crumbling economic future.

This is the same Justin Trudeau who painted MAGA as a dangerous fringe movement, aligning himself with global elites and lecturing Americans on their supposed moral failings. He openly scoffed at Trump’s tariffs, his immigration policies, and his tough-on-China stance. Trudeau’s bet? That a Democrat-controlled America would reward his sycophantic pandering with favorable trade deals and continued subsidies for his progressive fantasies.

But Trudeau’s gamble failed. Trump is back, and Trudeau’s entire house of cards is collapsing. Canada’s economy, propped up by unfair trade advantages and U.S. energy consumption, is suddenly exposed. The 25% tariff threat on Canadian imports has Trudeau scrambling, not with bold leadership, but with empty promises and nervous laughter at Mar-a-Lago.

In a moment of pure irony, Trudeau, who once lectured Trump about values, now finds himself kneeling to kiss the ring. MAGA, what? Gone is the smug defiance, replaced by desperate platitudes about border security and economic cooperation. But let’s be clear: Trudeau isn’t there to protect Canadian interests; he’s there to save face. His government is woefully unprepared for Trump’s hardball tactics, and the Prime Minister’s office knows it.

During a recent dinner at Mar-a-Lago, President-elect Donald Trump reportedly suggested that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state if it couldn’t handle the economic impact of proposed tariffs. This remark came after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expressed concerns that a 25% tariff on Canadian imports would “kill” Canada’s economy.

Trump’s comment underscores the significant economic interdependence between the two nations. In 2022, trade between the U.S. and Canada exceeded $900 billion, with the U.S. accounting for 63.4% of Canada’s global trade. This deep economic integration means that shifts in U.S. trade policy can have profound effects on Canada’s economy.

Trump’s quip about Canada becoming the “51st state” wasn’t just a joke; it was a power move, a reminder of who holds the cards in this relationship. While Trudeau nervously laughed, the message was clear: Canada needs the U.S. far more than the U.S. needs Canada. Trudeau’s weakness has brought us here. Instead of securing energy independence, he’s strangled Alberta’s oil industry with crippling regulations. Instead of standing up to China, he’s kowtowed to Beijing while relying on U.S. trade to keep his agenda afloat.

And now, Trudeau is at the mercy of a man he spent years mocking. Trump’s tariffs are a direct consequence of Trudeau’s inability to lead. His failure to address illegal immigration and the fentanyl crisis has made Canada not just a bad neighbor, but a liability.

Trudeau’s Liberals have always been more concerned with appearances than action, more focused on virtue signaling than real governance. But now, the bill has come due. And the man holding the ledger is none other than Donald J. Trump.

So here we are: Justin Trudeau, the woke globalist, reduced to pleading for mercy at Mar-a-Lago. His smugness replaced by desperation, his rhetoric exposed as hollow. MAGA what, indeed.

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