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It’s Time for Canadians to Challenge the American Domination of the LNG Space

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7 minute read

From EnergyNow.Ca

By Susan McArthur

Canada is now among the top 10 countries with natural gas reserves. It’s time to take advantage of that

Canadians are starting to understand the Americans ate our breakfast, lunch and dinner when it comes to selling liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the global market while simultaneously undermining our national security.

They are finally waking up to the importance of the urgent request by oil and gas CEOs to all federal party leaders calling for the removal of legislation and regulation impeding and capping the development of our resources.

The LNG story in the United States is one of unprecedented growth, according to a recent Atlantic Council report by Daniel Yergin and Madeline Jowdy. Ten years ago, the U.S. did not export a single tonne of LNG. Today, U.S. exports account for 25 per cent of the global market and have contributed US$400 billion to its gross domestic product (GDP) over the past decade.

The U.S. is now the world’s largest LNG supplier, edging out Qatar and Australia, and according to Yergin and Jowdy, its export market is on track to contribute US$1.3 trillion to U.S. GDP by 2040 and create an average of 500,000 jobs annually.

Last week, Alberta announced a sixfold increase in its proven natural gas reserves to 130 trillion cubic feet (tcf). The new figures push Canada into the top 10 countries with natural gas reserves.

Unfortunately, notwithstanding this vast resource, Canada didn’t even make it to the LNG party and the Americans have been laughing all the way to the bank at Canada’s expense. Our decade-long anti-pipeline and natural resource agenda has cost us dearly and Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are a stake to the heart.

As the world grapples with global warming, natural gas is the perfect transition fuel. It generates half the CO2 emissions of coal, provides needed grid backup for intermittent renewable wind and solar power, and it is relatively easy to commission.

Canada has extensive natural gas reserves, but these reserves are less valuable if we can’t get them to offshore markets where countries will pay a premium for energy generation. Canadian gas is abundant, but, given our smaller market, typically trades at a discount to U.S. gas and a massive discount to European and Asian markets.

The capital-intensive nature of LNG facilities requires long-term supply contracts. Generally, 20-year supply contracts with creditworthy counterparties are required to secure the financing required to build gas infrastructure and liquefaction plants.

For example, as part of a larger strategic deal, Houston-based LNG company NextDecade Corp. signed a 20-year offtake agreement to supply 5.4 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to French multinational TotalEnergies SE.

As the market grows and matures, the spot market is gaining share, but term contracts continue to represent most of the market. This is a problem for Canada as it tries to break into the market, as much of current and future demand is already committed.

More than half the current LNG market demand, or 225 mtpa, is under contract until 2040, according to Shell PLC’s LNG outlook report for 2024. A further 100 mtpa is contracted to 2045. Shell recently revised its LNG market growth forecast upward to 700 mtpa by 2040 and it estimates the LNG supply currently in operation or under construction already accounts for about 525 mtpa, or almost 75 per cent of the estimated market in 2040.

Even if Canada secured 100 per cent of the available market share (impossible), this represents a fraction of the 130 trillion cubic feet of reserves in Alberta and an infinitesimal amount of Canada’s natural gas reserve.

If Canada wants to sell its LNG to the global market, it needs to be at the starting line now. Canada has seven LNG export projects in various stages of development. They are all in British Columbia. The capacity of these export plants is 50 mtpa and the capital cost is estimated to be $110 billion.

After significant delays and cost overruns, our first export facility, LNG Canada’s 14 mtpa Phase 1 in Kitimat, is set to ship its first cargo to Asia later this year. Phase 2, representing a further 14 mtpa, is still awaiting a final investment decision. The Cedar LNG, Ksi Lisims LNG and Woodfibre LNG projects are licensed, at various stages of development and represent a further 17 mtpa.

Canada’s LNG exports today are a drop in the bucket compared to both our potential and the 88 mtpa exported by the U.S. in 2024. We have one project completed and, if history repeats itself and Canada doesn’t get its act together, the runway for the remaining licensed projects will be long, painful and costly.

Financing large capital projects requires predictability with respect to timing and cost. This is also a problem for Canada. As the oil and gas CEOs have pointed out, LNG market players have lost trust in Canada as an investible jurisdiction for these projects.

In the face of Trump’s trade war, Canadians have become pipeline evangelists. Wishful thinking and political talking points won’t be enough if we repeat our decade of own goals on this file. We have literally left billions on the table.

Governments should fast-track all licensed projects, limit special interest distractions and provide the required muscle and financial support to get these projects up and running as soon as possible.

From Churchill, Man., to Quebec to the Maritimes to British Columbia, we should be making plans for LNG terminals and the required pipeline infrastructure to get this valuable and clean resource to market. And Canadians should pray we haven’t totally missed the market.

Susan McArthur is a former venture capital investor, investment banker and current corporate director. She has previously served on a chemical logistics and oil service board.

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Alberta

Alberta updates TIER system: Businesses can direct compliance payments to on-site technologies

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Modernizing TIER to secure tomorrow

Alberta is seeking to update the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) system to drive investment at large industrial facilities, helping companies stay competitive and protecting jobs.

This fall, Alberta’s government will introduce updates to the TIER system that would empower Alberta industries to invest in on-site emissions reduction technology that works for their specific businesses. Making Alberta’s highly successful TIER system even more effective and flexible will make industries more globally competitive while maintaining Alberta’s leadership in emissions reductions.

“TIER has always been about Alberta leading the way – proving to the world that it’s possible to increase energy production, grow the economy and lower emissions at the same time. These amendments build on that success by giving industry the certainty and flexibility they need to invest right here at home. We know this work is not finished. We will continue to press the federal government to match Alberta’s leadership with realistic policies and timelines so that together we can keep building an economy that is strong and ready for the future.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

“We are committed to ensuring our industry remains competitive and can once again bring in the capital investment needed to deliver safe, affordable and reliable energy to Canadians and the rest of the world. Enabling them to reinvest their dollars into their own facilities will be good for the environment while growing our economy and creating jobs.”

Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas

“TIER has played a critical role in helping Alberta energy be the most responsibly produced energy in the world. These changes will further allow our major energy companies to increase production and finance new world-leading emission reduction efforts consistent with Alberta’s Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan.”

Brian Jean, Minister of Energy and Minerals

Proposed updates to the TIER system include:

  • Recognizing on-site emissions reduction investments as a new way for industry to comply with the TIER system in addition to the current options available, which include paying into the TIER fund or buying credits. This would reward companies for investing directly in emissions reduction technology that encourages innovation, supports local jobs and reduces emissions.
  • Allowing smaller facilities that currently participate in the TIER system to leave or opt out for 2025 to reduce costs and red tape. Smaller facilities below the regulatory emissions threshold can face disproportionate compliance costs under the TIER system, which is mainly designed for large facilities. This change would help smaller industries save money and redirect resources into emissions reduction investments or other operational improvements for more cost savings. It offers flexibility, especially for small manufacturers and rural operations, which protects jobs across Alberta.

These changes will position Alberta, once again, as a world leader ready to meet the challenges and realities of shifting global markets, increased competition and trade uncertainty.

“We are pleased to see the Government of Alberta is taking steps to improve competitiveness of climate policy. Today’s announcement recognizes industry concerns around competitiveness and signals that the province is moving forward to support emissions reduction in a way that helps companies reduce emissions, compete for investment, and create jobs for Albertans. EPAC believes provinces are best positioned to lead on climate policy, and we look forward to continued work with Alberta.”

Tristan Goodman, president and CEO, The Explorers and Producers Association of Canada

“Pathways Alliance appreciates the Government of Alberta’s efforts to support the oil sands industry and protect jobs. Direct investment through the TIER system is expected to encourage continued investment in emission reduction technologies, and advance innovative infrastructure. The oil sands industry looks forward to ongoing work with governments to strengthen global competitiveness and attract investment.”

Kendall Dilling, president, Pathways Alliance

Alberta’s economy is growing and emissions are declining thanks to the province’s common-sense approach. Alberta’s government will continue to work with industry to protect jobs, strengthen competitiveness and maintain Alberta’s position as the destination of choice for global investment.

Quick facts

  • Alberta’s TIER system was established in 2007 and was the first of its kind in North America.
  • Currently the TIER system includes about 60 per cent of the province’s total emissions, helping Alberta’s industrial facilities find innovative ways to reduce emissions and invest in technology to stay competitive, save money and create jobs.
  • The TIER Regulation requires any facility that emits 100,000 tonnes or more of emissions in a year to meet annual emissions reductions using either a facility-specific or a sector benchmark approach.
  • Under the current system, regulated facilities can comply using credits (carbon offsets, emission performance credits or sequestration tonnes) or pay into the TIER fund at $95 per tonne of emissions.
  • Sectors regulated under the TIER system include oil and gas, oil sands mining, electricity, forestry, chemicals, fertilizers, minerals, food processing and waste.
  • Since 2019, Alberta has invested $1.6 billion from the TIER fund into geothermal, hydrogen, energy storage, methane reduction, carbon capture and other technology projects, reducing approximately 70 million tonnes of emissions by 2030 and supporting about 21,000 jobs across the province.

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2025 Federal Election

Post election report indicates Canadian elections are becoming harder to secure

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The Opposition with Dan Knight

Dan Knight's avatar Dan Knight

Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault highlights strong participation and secure voting, but admits minority politics, rising costs, and administrative pressures are testing the system’s limits.

Monday in Ottawa, Stéphane Perrault, Canada’s Chief Electoral Officer, delivered a long press conference on April’s federal election. It was supposed to be a victory lap, record turnout, record early voting, a secure process. But if you listened closely, you heard something else: an admission that Canada’s election machinery is faltering, stretched thin by a system politicians refuse to fix.

Perrault touted the highest turnout in 30 years, 69 percent of eligible voters, nearly 20 million Canadians. Almost half of those ballots were cast before election day, a dramatic shift in how citizens take part in democracy.

“Twenty years ago, less than 7% voted early. This year, nearly half did,” Perrault told reporters. “Our system may have reached its limit.”

That’s the core problem. The system was built for one decisive day, not weeks of advance voting spread across campuses, long-term care homes, mail-in ballots, and local Elections Canada offices. It’s no longer a single event; it’s an extended process that stretches the capacity of staff, polling locations, and administration.

Perrault admitted bluntly that the 36-day writ period, the time between when an election is called and when the vote happens, may no longer be workable. “If we don’t have a fixed date election, the current time frame does not allow for the kind of service preparations that is required,” he said.

And this is where politics collides with logistics. Canada is once again under a minority government, which means an election can be triggered at almost any moment. A non-confidence vote in the House of Commons, where opposition parties withdraw support from the government, can bring down Parliament in an instant. That’s not a flaw in the system; it’s how parliamentary democracy works. But it leaves Elections Canada on permanent standby, forced to prepare for a snap election without knowing when the writ will drop.

The result? Sixty percent of voter information cards were mailed late this year because Elections Canada couldn’t finalize leases for polling stations on time. Imagine that, more than half the country got their voting information delayed because the system is clogged. And that’s when everything is supposedly working.

The April election cost an estimated $570 million, almost identical to 2021 in today’s dollars. But here’s the kicker: Elections Canada also spent $203 million just to stay ready during three years of minority Parliament. That’s not democracy on the cheap. That’s bureaucracy on retainer.

Perrault admitted as much: “We had a much longer readiness period. That’s the reality of minority governments.”

No Foreign Interference… But Plenty of ‘Misinformation’

Canada’s top election official wanted to make something perfectly clear: “There were no acts of foreign interference targeting the administration of the electoral process.” That’s the line. And it’s a good one… reassuring, simple, the kind of phrase meant to make headlines and calm nerves.

But listen closely to the wording. He didn’t say there was no interference at all. He said none of it targeted the administration of the vote. Which raises the obvious question: what interference did occur, and who was behind it?

Perrault admitted there was “more volume than ever” of misinformation circulating during the 2025 election. He listed the greatest hits: rumors that Elections Canada gives voters pencils so ballots can be erased, or claims that non-citizens were voting. These are hardly new — they’ve appeared in the U.S. and in Europe too. The difference, he said, is scale. In 2025, Canadians saw those narratives across more channels, more platforms, more communities than ever before.

This is where things get interesting. Because the way Perrault framed it wasn’t that a rogue actor or a foreign intelligence service was pushing disinformation. He was blunt: this was a domestic problem as much as anything else. In his words, “whether foreign or not,” manipulation of information poses the “single biggest risk to our democracy.”

Perrault insists the real danger isn’t foreign hackers or ballot-stuffing but Canadians themselves, ordinary people raising questions online. “Information manipulation, whether foreign or not, poses the single biggest risk to our democracy,” he said.

Well, maybe he should look in the mirror. If Canadians are skeptical of the system, maybe it’s because the people running it haven’t done enough to earn their trust. It took years for Ottawa to even acknowledge the obvious , that foreign actors were meddling in our politics long before this election. Endless commissions and closed-door reports later, we’re told to stop asking questions and accept that everything is secure.

Meanwhile, what gets fast-tracked? Not a comprehensive fix to protect our democracy, but a criminal investigation into a journalist. Keean Bexte, co-founder of JUNO News, is facing prosecution under Section 91(1) of the Canada Elections Act for his reporting on allegations against Liberal candidate Thomas Keeper. The maximum penalty? A $50,000 fine and up to five years in prison. His reporting, incidentally, was sourced, corroborated, and so credible that the Liberal Party quietly dropped Keeper from its candidate list.

If people doubt the system, it isn’t because they’re gullible or “misinformed.” It’s because the government has treated transparency as an afterthought and accountability as an inconvenience. And Perrault knows it. Canadians aren’t children to be scolded for asking questions, they’re citizens who expect straight answers.

But instead of fixing the cracks in the system, Ottawa points the finger at the public. Instead of rebuilding trust, they prosecute journalists.

You don’t restore faith in democracy by threatening reporters with five years in prison. You do it by showing, quickly and openly, that elections are beyond reproach. Until then, spare us the lectures about “misinformation.” Canadians can see exactly where the problem lies, and it isn’t with them.

The Takeaway

Of course, they’re patting themselves on the back. Record turnout, no servers hacked, the trains ran mostly on time. Fine. But what they don’t want to admit is that the system barely held together. It was propped up by 230,000 temporary workers, leases signed at the last minute, and hundreds of millions spent just to keep the lights on. That’s not stability. That’s triage.

And then there’s the lecturing tone. Perrault tells us the real threat isn’t incompetence in Ottawa, it’s you, Canadians “sharing misinformation.” Excuse me? Canadians asking questions about their elections aren’t a threat to democracy, they are democracy. If the government can’t handle people poking holes in its story, maybe the problem isn’t the questions, maybe it’s the answers.

So yes, on paper, the 2025 election looked like a triumph. But listen closely and you hear the sound of a system cracking under pressure, led by officials more interested in controlling the narrative than earning your trust. And when the people running your elections think the real danger is the voters themselves? That’s when you know the elastic isn’t just stretched. It’s about to snap.

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