Alberta
Game changer: Trans Mountain pipeline expansion complete and starting to flow Canada’s oil to the world
Workers complete the “golden weld” of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion on April 11, 2024 in the Fraser Valley between Hope and Chilliwack, B.C. The project saw mechanical completion on April 30, 2024. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
‘We’re going to be moving into a market where buyers are going to be competing to buy Canadian oil’
It is a game changer for Canada that will have ripple effects around the world.
The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is now complete. And for the first time, global customers can access large volumes of Canadian oil, with the benefits flowing to Canada’s economy and Indigenous communities.
“We’re going to be moving into a market where buyers are going to be competing to buy Canadian oil,” BMO Capital Markets director Randy Ollenberger said recently, adding this is expected to result in a better price for Canadian oil relative to other global benchmarks.
The long-awaited expansion nearly triples capacity on the Trans Mountain system from Edmonton to the West Coast to approximately 890,000 barrels per day. Customers for the first shipments include refiners in China, California and India, according to media reports.
Shippers include all six members of the Pathways Alliance, a group of companies representing 95 per cent of oil sands production that together plan to reduce emissions from operations by 22 megatonnes by 2030 on the way to net zero by 2050.
The first tanker shipment from Trans Mountain’s expanded Westridge Marine Terminal is expected later in May.
Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
The new capacity on the Trans Mountain system comes as demand for Canadian oil from markets outside the United States is on the rise.
According to the Canada Energy Regulator, exports to destinations beyond the U.S. have averaged a record 267,000 barrels per day so far this year, up from about 130,000 barrels per day in 2020 and 33,000 barrels per day in 2017.
“Oil demand globally continues to go up,” said Phil Skolnick, New York-based oil market analyst with Eight Capital.
“Both India and China are looking to add millions of barrels a day of refining capacity through 2030.”
In India, refining demand will increase mainly for so-called medium and heavy oil like what is produced in Canada, he said.
“That’s where TMX is the opportunity for Canada, because that’s the route to get to India.”
Led by India and China, oil demand in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to increase from 36 million barrels per day in 2022 to 52 million barrels per day in 2050, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
More oil coming from Canada will shake up markets for similar world oil streams including from Russia, Ecuador, and Iraq, according to analysts with Rystad Energy and Argus Media.
Expanded exports are expected to improve pricing for Canadian heavy oil, which “have been depressed for many years” in part due to pipeline shortages, according to TD Economics.
Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
In recent years, the price for oil benchmark Western Canadian Select (WCS) has hovered between $18-$20 lower than West Texas Intermediate (WTI) “to reflect these hurdles,” analyst Marc Ercolao wrote in March.
“That spread should narrow as a result of the Trans Mountain completion,” he wrote.
“Looking forward, WCS prices could conservatively close the spread by $3–4/barrel later this year, which will incentivize production and support industry profitability.”
Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office has said that an increase of US$5 per barrel for Canadian heavy oil would add $6 billion to Canada’s economy over the course of one year.
The Trans Mountain Expansion will leave a lasting economic legacy, according to an impact assessment conducted by Ernst & Young in March 2023.
In addition to $4.9 billion in contracts with Indigenous businesses during construction, the project leaves behind more than $650 million in benefit agreements and $1.2 billion in skills training with Indigenous communities.
Ernst & Young found that between 2024 and 2043, the expanded Trans Mountain system will pay $3.7 billion in wages, generate $9.2 billion in GDP, and pay $2.8 billion in government taxes.
Alberta
Fortis et Liber: Alberta’s Future in the Canadian Federation
From the C2C Journal
By Barry Cooper, professor of political science, University of Calgary
Canada’s western lands, wrote one prominent academic, became provinces “in the Roman sense” – acquired possessions that, once vanquished, were there to be exploited. Laurentian Canada regarded the hinterlands as existing primarily to serve the interests of the heartland. And the current holders of office in Ottawa often behave as if the Constitution’s federal-provincial distribution of powers is at best advisory, if it needs to be acknowledged at all. Reviewing this history, Barry Cooper places Alberta’s widely criticized Sovereignty Act in the context of the Prairie provinces’ long struggle for due constitutional recognition and the political equality of their citizens. Canada is a federation, notes Cooper. Provinces do have rights. Constitutions do mean something. And when they are no longer working, they can be changed.
Alberta
30 million contraband cigarettes valued at $25 million dollars seized in Alberta
New release from Alberta Gaming Liquor and Cannabis (AGLC)
Record setting contraband tobacco seizures result from AGLC investigations
Alberta Gaming Liquor and Cannabis (AGLC) recently concluded several investigations which netted two of the largest contraband tobacco seizures in Alberta history. The combined total of the contraband tobacco seized was 154,800 cartons of contraband cigarettes (30.7 million individual cigarettes). These seizures are a result of the work conducted by AGLC’s Tobacco Enforcement Unit with the assistance of provincial law enforcement agencies.
- In a January 2024 investigation, approximately 43,500 cartons (8.7 million individual cigarettes) were seized. This equates to $7 million in retail value with a provincial tax avoidance of $2.4 million. This included the seizure of 15,000 grams of contraband shisha.
- In April of 2024, 60 wrapped pallets were seized from a warehouse setting netting a total of 111,300 cartons of contraband cigarettes (22 million individual cigarettes) which equates to over $18 million in retail value with a provincial tax avoidance of $6.6 million.
- Criminal Charges are pending in both cases.
“These are significant contraband tobacco investigations involving individuals that are part of organized networks whose proceeds defraud Albertans millions of dollars in tax revenue. AGLC will continue to work with our partners to investigate and disrupt the individuals and organizations involved in these illegal activities as part our commitment to a strong contraband tobacco enforcement program in Alberta.”
- Gary Peck, Vice President, Regulatory Services, AGLC
“Contraband tobacco hurts law abiding businesses that follow the rules, and it costs Albertans millions each year from lost tax revenue. Our government is committed to keeping illegal tobacco off the streets and ensuring that the sale of tobacco products comply with the law.”
- Dale Nally, Minister of Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction
Over the last nine months, AGLC’s Tobacco Enforcement unit has seized an estimated 35 million contraband cigarettes and 115,000 grams of contraband shisha from across the province. The total potential lost tax revenue is estimated to be more than $10.1 million.
Contraband tobacco:
- is any tobacco product that does not comply with federal and provincial laws related to importation, marking, manufacturing, stamping and payment of duties and taxes;
- comes from four main sources: illegal manufacturers, counterfeits, tax-exempt diversions and resale of stolen legal tobacco; and
- can be recognized by the absence of a red (Alberta) or peach/light tan (Canada) stamp bearing the “DUTY PAID CANADA DROIT ACQUITTÉ” on packages of cigarettes and cigars or pouches of tobacco.
In addition to lost revenues that may otherwise benefit Albertans, illegally manufactured products also pose public health and safety risks as they lack regulatory controls and inspections oversight.
Albertans who suspect illegal tobacco production, packaging and/or trafficking are encouraged to contact AGLC’s Tobacco Enforcement Unit at 1-800-577-2522 or Crime Stoppers at 1-800-222-TIPS (8477).
Under a Memorandum of Understanding with Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, AGLC enforces the Tobacco Tax Act and conducts criminal investigations related to the possession, distribution and trafficking of contraband tobacco products. In 2022-23, provincial revenue from tobacco taxes was approximately $522 million.
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