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Fiscal room tightening as economy teeters, associate finance minister says

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By Mia Rabson in Hamilton

Canada’s associate finance minister says it’s going to be a “turbulent” year for the economy, but Randy Boissonault insists the government still has some spending room for big priorities including a new health-care deal with the provinces.

Boissonnault was speaking before the cabinet meets on the second of a three-day cabinet retreat in Hamilton, Ont. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is set to give an economic update to cabinet later Tuesday.

“There’s lots of uncertainty,” Boissonnault said. “So we’re going to be watching this every step of the way as we get ready for budget (2023). We still have fiscal room to be able to do the things we need to do but the fiscal room has tightened.”

He said the war in Ukraine and inflation are among the issues causing both uncertainty and economic harm.

On Monday, a joint report from the Business Council of Canada and Bennett Jones warned that the fiscal forecast laid out in the last federal budget and the fall economic statement was likely too rosy.

The report, written by former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge and former Liberal finance policy adviser Robert Asselin, said the government’s forecast was based on a “plausible but optimistic” set of economic and interest-rate assumptions that are unlikely to come true.

They warn there is a “high likelihood of a more severe recession” this year and that the Liberal promises on everything from health-care funding and enhanced national defence spending to infrastructure improvements and climate change are going to cost a lot more than projected.

Boissonnault said that report is one of many the government will look to as it makes its economic forecast ahead of the next budget. He said he thinks the fiscal reality will fall somewhere between the best- and worst-case scenarios laid out in the fall economic statement.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said affordability and making Canada competitive were his priorities heading into this cabinet meeting.

Ongoing talks with the provinces for a new health funding deal are also front and centre and are one of the issues that could change the government’s spending plans. The provinces have asked for billions over the next decade to bring their health systems back from the brink of collapse.

Ottawa is insisting on accountability for any new health funding and Trudeau has not publicly committed to meet the premiers’ demands.

Trudeau started his day Tuesday meeting with Hamilton Mayor Andrea Horwath, the former leader of Ontario’s NDP. The pair said housing was among their chief topics of conversation.

Housing prices and a lack of affordable housing in particular have become a key issue for governments at every level.

The cabinet meeting in Hamilton comes as it prepares for the return of Parliament next week. The industrial city, known predominantly as a steel town, is also one of the most competitive politically, particularly between the Liberals the NDP. The Liberals won three of the four seats in Hamilton proper in 2021, edging out the NDP in one seat that party had held since 2006.

Cabinet was also given a sharp reminder of the loud opposition they face among a group known as the “freedom convoy.” A small protest greeted Trudeau Monday afternoon as he arrived.

A larger group, about three dozen or so, returned in the evening, where they waved flags, yelled and set off fireworks — including some they appeared to aim at the building.

Most disbanded by 11 p.m. but at least one protester spent most of the night honking his horn off and on, reminiscent of the air horns from the big rigs that blocked much of downtown Ottawa for three weeks almost a year ago.

This coming weekend will mark the one-year anniversary of the convoy’s arrival in Ottawa. The weeks-long blockade and accompanying blockades at several border crossings prompted Trudeau to invoke the Emergencies Act for the first time since it replaced the War Measures Act in 1988.

The final report from the public inquiry into that decision is due in February.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 24, 2023.

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Key takeaways from AP’s report on China’s influence in Utah

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In a letter photographed Feb. 13, 2022, Utah professor Taowen Le sent a letter to Utah Gov. Spencer Cox in 2022 urging him to meet with a Chinese ambassador. Le is among China’s most vocal advocates in the state. An investigation found that China’s global influence campaign has been surprisingly robust and successful in Utah. (AP Photo/Jon Elswick)

By Alan Suderman And Sam Metz in Salt Lake City

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — China’s global influence campaign has been surprisingly robust and successful in Utah, an investigation by The Associated Press has found.

The world’s most powerful communist country and its U.S.-based advocates have spent years building relationships with Utah officials.

Legislators in the deeply conservative and religious state have responded by delaying legislation Beijing didn’t like, nixing resolutions that conveyed displeasure with China’s actions and expressing support in ways that enhanced the Chinese government’s image.

The AP’s investigation relied on dozens of interviews with key players and the review of hundreds of pages of records, text messages and emails obtained through public records’ requests.

Beijing’s success in Utah shows “how pervasive and persistent China has been in trying to influence America,” said Frank Montoya Jr., a retired FBI counterintelligence agent who lives in Utah.

“Utah is an important foothold,” he said. “If the Chinese can succeed in Salt Lake City, they can also make it in New York and elsewhere.”

Here are some key takeaways:

LEGISLATIVE AND PR VICTORIES

The AP review found that China and its advocates won frequent legislative and public relations victories in Utah.

Utah lawmakers recorded videos of themselves expressing words of encouragement for the citizens of Shanghai in early 2020, which experts said likely helped the Chinese Communist Party with its messaging.

The request came from a Chinese official as the government was scrambling to tamp down public fury at communist authorities for reprimanding a young doctor, who later died, over his warnings about the dangers posed by COVID-19.

Around the same time, Utah officials were thrilled when China’s authoritarian leader Xi Jinping sent a letter to fourth grade students in Utah. A Republican legislator said on the state Senate floor that he “couldn’t help but think how amazing it was” that Xi would take the time to write such a “remarkable” letter. Another GOP senator gushed on his conservative radio show that Xi’s letter “was so kind and so personal.”

The letter was heavily covered in Chinese state media, which quoted Utah students calling Xi a kind “grandpa” — a familiar trope in Chinese propaganda.

State lawmakers have frequently visited China, where they are often quoted in state-owned media in ways that support Beijing’s agenda.

“Utah is not like Washington D.C.,” then-Utah House Speaker Greg Hughes, a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump, told the Chinese state media outlet in 2018 as the former president ratcheted up pressure on China over trade. “Utah is a friend of China, an old friend with a long history.”

FBI SCRUTINY

Utah Republican Sen. Jake Anderegg told the AP he was interviewed by the FBI after introducing a 2020 resolution expressing solidarity with China in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. It won nearly unanimous approval. A similar resolution, proposed by a Chinese diplomat, was publicly rejected by Wisconsin’s Senate.

Anderegg said the language was provided to him by Dan Stephenson, the son of a former state senator and employee of a China-based consulting firm.

Stephenson and another Utah resident, Taowen Le, are among China’s most vocal advocates in Utah.

Both men have supported and sought to block resolutions, set up meetings between Utah lawmakers and Chinese officials, accompanied legislators on trips to China and provided advice on the best way to cultivate favor with Beijing, according to emails and interviews. Both have ties to what experts say are front groups for Beijing.

After embassy officials tried unsuccessfully last year to get staff for Utah Gov. Spencer Cox to schedule a get-together with China’s ambassador to the U.S., Le sent the governor a personal plea to take such a meeting.

“I still remember and cherish what you told me at the New Year Party held at your home,” Le wrote in a letter adorned with pictures of him and Cox posing together. “You told me that you trusted me to be a good messenger and friendship builder between Utah and China.”

Both men said their advocacy on China-related issues were self directed and not at the Chinese government’s behest. Le told AP he has been interviewed twice over the years by the FBI.

The FBI declined to comment.

TAILORED APPROACH

Security experts say that China’s campaign is widespread and tailored to local communities. In Utah, the AP found, Beijing and pro-China advocates appealed to lawmakers’ affiliations with The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, better known as the Mormon church, which is the state’s dominant religion and one that has long dreamed of expanding in China.

Le, who converted to the church decades ago, has quoted scripture from the Bible and the Book of Mormon in his emails and letters to lawmakers, and sprinkled in positive comments that Russell Nelson, the church’s president-prophet, has made about China.

PART OF BROADER TREND

Beijing’s success in Utah is part of a broader trend of targeting “sub-national” governments, like states and cities, experts say.

It is not unusual for countries, including the U.S., to engage in local diplomacy. U.S. officials and security experts have stressed that many Chinese language and cultural exchanges have no hidden agendas. However, they said, few nations have so aggressively courted local leaders across the globe in ways that raise national security concerns.

In its annual threat assessment released earlier this month, the U.S. intelligence community reported that China is “redoubling” its local influence campaign in the face of stiffening resistance at the national level. Beijing believes, the report said, that “local officials are more pliable than their federal counterparts.”

Authorities in other countries, including Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom, have sounded similar alarms.

A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington told the AP that China “values its relationship with Utah” and any “words and deeds that stigmatize and smear these sub-national exchanges are driven by ulterior political purposes.”

___

Suderman reported from Washington. AP writer Fu Ting in Washington contributed to this story.

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Saudi Aramco to invest billions in Chinese petrochemicals

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Saudi Aramco engineers escort reporters on a tour of the Hawiyah Natural Gas Liquids Recovery Plant, which is designed to process 4.0 billion standard cubic feet per day of sweet gas, a natural gas that does not contain significant amounts of hydrogen sulfide, in Hawiyah, in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, on June 28, 2021. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant Aramco will invest billions of dollars in China’s downstream petrochemicals industry, including the construction of a new refinery, the company said in deals announced Sunday and Monday.(AP Photo/Amr Nabil, File)

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant Aramco will invest billions of dollars in China’s downstream petrochemicals industry, including the construction of a new refinery, the company said in deals announced Sunday and Monday.

The announcements came as the company posted a record profitof more than $160 billion in 2022 and as Saudi Arabia, a longtime U.S. ally, has developed closer ties with Beijing in recent years.

Aramco will acquire a 10% interest in China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical Co. Ltd,, a purchase valued at $3.6 billion. Under a long-term sales agreement, Aramco will supply 480,000 barrels per day to Rongsheng affiliate Zhejiang Pettroleum and Chemical Co. Ltd., which owns and operates China’s largest refining and chemicals complex.

“This announcement demonstrates Aramco’s long-term commitment to China and belief in the fundamentals of the Chinese petrochemicals sector,” Aramco executive vice president Mohammed Al Qahtani said in a statement. “It also promises to secure a reliable supply of essential crude to one of China’s most important refiners.”

On Sunday, Aramco announced plans to construct a new refinery and petrochemical complex in northeastern China through a joint venture. Aramco, which holds a 30% stake in the Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Company, would supply 210,000 barrels per day of crude to the complex.

Saudi Arabia has cultivated closer ties with both Russia and China in recent years. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic ties for the first time since 2016 in a deal brokered by Beijing even as Riyadh announced a massive contract to buy commercial planes from U.S. manufacturer Boeing.

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