Energy
First Nations Buy Into Pipelines
From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy
“Meaningful Indigenous participation in our resource economy is maturing. At first, First Nations used to ask for compensation, the jobs, and then for the contracts that created those jobs, Now they seek purchase equity in the project itself. Soon they will create the project and seek others to invest in it. Then they will have real economic power.”
It’s taken years to get here, but there’s a new trend in Canada’s pipeline industry, and it couldn’t come soon enough. That’s because the path we’ve been on until now has been one to ruin.
On July 30, TC Energy announced it was in the process of selling 5.34 per cent of its Nova Gas Transmission Ltd. (NGTL) System and the Foothills Pipeline assets for a gross purchase price of $1 billion. “The Agreement is backed by the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) and was negotiated by a consortium committee (Consortium) representing specific Indigenous Communities (Communities) across Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan. This results in an implied enterprise value of approximately $1.65 billion, inclusive of the proportionate share of the Partnership Assets’ collective debt,” TC Energy said.
This comes a few months after its March 14 announcement to sell “all outstanding shares in Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Holdings Ltd. and the limited partnership interests in Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Limited Partnership (collectively, PRGT). PRGT is a wholly owned subsidiary of TC Energy and the developer of a natural gas pipeline project in British Columbia and potential delivery corridor that would further unlock Canada as a secure, affordable and sustainable source of LNG.”
The Nova system sale is significant. It’s the principal natural gas gathering system throughout Alberta and a bit into B.C. In addition to supplying Alberta with its gas needs, Nova, in turn, feeds the TC Energy Mainline. It also supplies Saskatchewan via Many Islands Pipe Lines and TransGas, both subsidiaries of SaskEnergy. And since Saskatchewan’s domestic gas production keeps falling, we now rely heavily on Alberta gas to keep our furnaces lit and our new gas fired power plants turning, keeping the lights on. When you look at the Nova map, it’s basically the map of Alberta.
Some of the most significant difficulties in getting major pipeline projects built in this country over the last 16 years has been Indigenous opposition. One of the first stories I wrote about with Pipeline News during the summer of 2008 was a First Nations protest on the Enbridge right of way at Kerrobert, complete with a teepee. That was for the Alberta Clipper project, but it was relatively quickly resolved.
Then there was Enbridge’s Northern Gateway project, which was approved by the Conservative federal government but halted by the courts because of insufficient Indigenous consultation. It was ultimately killed very early into the Trudeau-led Liberal administration, when he said, “The Great Bear Rainforest was no place for a pipeline, a crude pipeline.”
Northern Gateway would have terminated at Kitimat. Yet, curiously enough, that same forest had to be crossed to built the TC Energy Coastal GasLink project. It went grossly overbudget in no small part due to delays and resistance in every manner possible from the Wet’suweten in northern B.C. As Canadian Press reported on Dec. 11, 2023, “By the time the pipeline was finished, its estimated construction cost had ballooned from $6.6 billion to $14.5 billion.”
And then there was Trans Mountain Expansion. It had opposition from the BC government, City of Burnaby, and everyone who could apply a Sharpie marker to a Bristol board. But Indigenous opposition was a major factor. As Pipeline Online reported via the Canadian Press, “The project’s $34-billion price tag has ballooned from a 2017 estimate of $7.4 billion, with Trans Mountain Corp. blaming the increase on “extraordinary” factors including evolving compliance requirements, Indigenous accommodations, stakeholder engagement, extreme weather and the COVID-19 pandemic.”
By this spring, the number was $34 billion, and I anticipate its final cost will be higher still.
Maturing
There’s been a big change in recent years, not just in pipelines, but in other energy industries like wind and solar. That change had gone from consultation to jobs to equity investment.
The word used almost always is “reconciliation.” That can be a loaded word in many ways, Some feel it will heal wounds, and right past wrongs, or at least try to. Others would say it’s a form of extortion. And some take issue with racial overtones. But here’s something I heard this week that makes a lot of sense:
“Meaningful Indigenous participation in our resource economy is maturing. At first, First Nations used to ask for compensation, the jobs, and then for the contracts that created those jobs, Now they seek purchase equity in the project itself. Soon they will create the project and seek others to invest in it. Then they will have real economic power.”
That’s what Steve Halabura, professional geologist, told me. And he would know, since he’s been working with First Nations on this economic development front.
And you see that in the timeline I laid out. The 2008 protests were very much about compensation and jobs. Trans Mountain Expansion saw significant First Nations’ owned and operated firms awarded contracts. And now, they’re buying equity positions.
You know what? If First Nations bands, and people, do indeed become owners in these resource companies and infrastructure, if it helps pay for housing and water treatment plants, if it means meaningful work and paycheques, are they likely to fight the next project tooth and nail? Or will they want to be a part of it?
And think of it this way – if we could have gotten to this point ten years ago, maybe these projects might have gone much more smoothly. Maybe their final costs wouldn’t have been double, or quadruple, the original budget. When you think of it in that perspective – if a billion dollar equity stake meant Coastal GasLink could have cost $5 billion less, would it have been worth it to bring First Nations in as equity partners?
Some will say that’s extortion. Others would say it’s justice, or reconciliation. But maybe, just maybe, this is how we move forward, and everyone in the end wins. And maybe then Canada can, once again, build great things.
Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online and occasional contributor to the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. He can be reached at [email protected].
Energy
Putin’s uranium export restrictions are a gift for Canada
From Resource Works
“The World Nuclear Association says Canada could now play a major role in meeting future world demand, as several key nations eye nuclear energy to meet growing demand for electrical power and for power production that does not use fossil fuels.”
Good to see Russian President Vladimir Putin proposing restrictions on Russian exports of uranium in retaliation for Western sanctions on Russian oil, gas, and LNG.
“Please take a look at some of the types of goods that we supply to the world market,” he told Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. “Maybe we should think about certain restrictions — uranium, titanium, nickel.”
Russia is the world’s sixth-largest uranium producer and has about 44% of global uranium enrichment capacity.
Canada, once the world’s largest uranium producer, is now the world’s second-largest producer of uranium, behind Kazakhstan. Canada accounts for roughly 13% of total global output, and Putin’s comment quickly increased the value of shares of our uranium producers.
The World Nuclear Association says Canada could now play a major role in meeting future world demand, as several key nations eye nuclear energy to meet growing demand for electrical power and for power production that does not use fossil fuels.
The Cigar Lake mine in Saskatchewan is one of the world’s richest in uranium. The McClean Lake mill, which processes it, is operated by a subsidiary of France’s Orano and sells 40% of its production to the French electric utility company, EDF.
Australia’s Paladin Energy moved in June to buy Canadian uranium explorer Fission Uranium for $1.14 billion. That purchase is now undergoing a national security review ordered by Ottawa.
Canada’s 34 “critical metals” and minerals have been taking up more of Ottawa’s interest, with the feds pushing their Critical Minerals Strategy and making it harder for foreign firms to acquire Canada’s biggest mining companies.
Now, Saskatchewan has vowed to compete with China in processing and production of rare earths and to become the prime North American source for metals used to make magnets for electric vehicles and wind turbines.
All this comes as one outlook says the global mining industry will require US$2.1 trillion in new investments by 2050 to meet the raw material demands of a net-zero-emissions world. The report says critical energy-transition metals, including aluminum, copper, and lithium, could face supply deficits this decade—some as early as this year.
In Canada, a new report from consultants EY says “capital is king” and is the top risk facing the mining industry this year, as tough financing and economic conditions make it more difficult to deliver the metals needed for the energy transition.
“We need about $1 trillion in investment to produce enough metals for the energy transition,” says Theo Yameogo, EY Americas and Canada mining and metals leader. “We haven’t seen that coming in. Now it’s the #1 (risk) because people are really worried. We’ve seen some M&A, but we haven’t seen direct investment in the mining sector.”
This points to the need for Canadian governments to simplify and speed up regulatory processes for new mines. It can take 12 to 15 years before a proposed mine can get through all the red tape from assorted governments and get into its first production. Jonathan Wilkinson, federal minister of energy and natural resources, announced in March that Canada would soon launch an Action Plan to speed up the mine-permitting process. But we still don’t see it.
Alberta
“It’s Canada’s Time to Shine” – CNRL’s $6.5 Billion Chevron Deal Extends Oil Sands Buying Spree
From Energy Now
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.’s $6.5 billion acquisition from Chevron Corp. marks the latest in a string of deals that has helped make it the country’s largest oil producer and brought Alberta’s massive oil sands deposits almost entirely under local control.
CNRL has feasted on the oil sands assets of foreign energy producers over the past decade, snapping up stakes and operations from Devon Energy Corp. and Shell Plc as they shifted away from the higher-cost, higher-emissions oil sands business. Investors have applauded the strategy, which allows CNRL to boost output and make the operations more efficient.
That trend continued on Monday, with CNRL shares climbing more than 4% after the deal with Chevron raised its stake in a key oil sands mine and a connected upgrading facility, while also adding natural gas assets in the Duvernay formation.
“These assets build on the robustness of Canadian Natural’s assets,” said CNRL President Scott Stauth said on a conference call Monday. The deal boosts CNRL’s stake in the Athabasca oil sands project, which it first bought from Shell in 2017, to 90% from 70%.
The acquisition was largely expected and boosts CNRL’s oil and gas output by roughly 9%, adding the equivalent of 122,500 barrels of oil production per day.
“It’s just been a matter of time,” Eight Capital analyst Phil Skolnick said by phone, noting that CNRL had been seen as the logical buyer for Chevron’s oil sands business.
While CNRL also boosted its dividend by 7% on Monday, Desjardins analyst Chris MacCulloch cautioned the company’s additional debt to finance the acquisition “may disappoint some investors” given it plans to temporarily slow capital returns.
Still, MacCulloch said the deal is positive overall for CNRL as it further consolidates assets in the region. “There’s no place like home,” he wrote in a note.
Chevron, for its part, is the latest in a long line of US and international oil producers — such as BP Plc, TotalEnergies SE and Equinor ASA — that have shifted away from the oil sands after spending billions to build facilities in the heavy-oil formation. That has left the oil sands largely in the control of Canadian firms including CNRL, Suncor Energy Inc. and Cenovus Energy Inc.
“There’s no remaining, obvious assets available,” Ninepoint Partners partner and senior portfolio manager Eric Nuttall said after Monday’s deal. Ninepoint owns 3.1 million shares in CNRL, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Many of those oil sands deals have been struck at prices that favor the Canadian buyers, which have consolidated land, reduced costs and boosted returns in recent years.
“It’s Canada’s time to shine,” Nuttall said, adding that he expects foreign investors will return to the country’s oil producers in the future.
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