Business
Federal government’s emission-reduction plan will cost Canadian workers $6,700 annually by 2030—while failing to meet government’s emission-reduction target

From the Fraser Institute
The federal government’s plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will impose significant costs on Canadians—while also failing to meet the government’s own emission-reduction target, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“The government’s plan will significantly hurt Canada’s economy and cost workers money and jobs,” said Ross McKitrick, professor of economics at the University of Guelph, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of The Economic Impact and GHG Effects of the Federal Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan through 2030.
The government wants to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. To meet this target, the government has enacted a series of policies including the federal carbon tax, clean fuel standards and various other GHG-related regulations such as energy efficiency requirements for buildings,
fertilizer restrictions on farms, and electric vehicle mandates.
The study finds that these combined policies will only reduce GHG emissions by an estimated 57 per cent of the government’s 2030 emission-reduction target.
And crucially, by 2030 these policies will:
• reduce Canada’s GDP by 6.2 per cent
• cost $6,700 per worker annually
• reduce employment in Canada by 164,000 jobs
“This poorly-designed plan, which will worsen the current downward trends in productivity and income, will reduce emissions but at a cost many times higher than the government’s estimated benefits,” McKitrick said.
- The federal government has set a GHG emissions reduction target of at least 40% below 2005 levels by 2030, equivalent to 38.5% below 2022 levels.
- This report examines proposed policies aimed at achieving these goals and evaluates their potential impact, aiming to address the gap left by the federal government’s lack of efforts in this matter.
- The paper uses a peer-reviewed macroeconomic model to assess the federal government’s Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP), including carbon pricing, Clean Fuel Regulations, and other regulatory measures such as EV mandates.
- It is estimated that the ERP will reduce Canada’s GHG emissions by about 26.5% between 2019 and 2030, reaching approximately 57% of the government’s 2030 target, leaving a substantial gap.
- The implementation of the ERP is expected to significantly dampen economic growth, with a projected 6.2% reduction in Canada’s economy (i.e., real GDP) compared to the base case by 2030.
- Income per worker, adjusted for inflation, is forecasted to stagnate during the 2020s and decrease by 1.5% by 2030 compared to 2022 levels.
- The ERP costs $6,700 per worker annually by 2030, which is more than five times the cost per worker compared to the carbon tax alone.
- Overall, while the federal ERP will contribute to reducing GHG emissions, it falls short of meeting the 2026 or 2030 targets and imposes significant economic burdens on Canadian households. Additionally, due to the high marginal cost of many regulatory measures, the ERP plan is costlier than it needs to be for what it will accomplish.
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Automotive
Nissan, Honda scrap $60B merger talks amid growing tensions

Quick Hit:
Nissan is reportedly abandoning merger talks with Honda, scrapping a $60 billion deal that would have created the world’s third-largest automaker. The collapse raises questions about Nissan’s turnaround strategy as it faces challenges from electric vehicle competitors and potential U.S. tariffs.
Key Details:
- Nissan shares dropped over 4% following the news, while Honda’s stock surged more than 8%, signaling investor relief.
- Honda reportedly proposed making Nissan a subsidiary, a move Nissan rejected as it was initially framed as a merger of equals.
- Nissan is struggling with financial challenges and the transition to EVs, still reeling from the 2018 scandal involving former chairman Carlos Ghosn.
Diving Deeper:
Merger talks between Nissan and Honda have collapsed, according to sources, after months of negotiations to form an auto giant capable of competing with Chinese EV makers like BYD. The proposed deal, valued at over $60 billion, would have created the world’s third-largest automaker. However, differences in strategy and control ultimately derailed the discussions.
Reports indicate that Honda, Japan’s second-largest automaker, wanted Nissan to become a subsidiary rather than an equal merger partner. Nissan balked at the idea, leading to the collapse of negotiations. Honda’s market valuation of approximately $51.9 billion dwarfs Nissan’s, which may have fueled concerns about control. The failure of talks sent Nissan’s stock tumbling more than 4% in Tokyo, while Honda’s shares rose over 8%, reflecting investor confidence in Honda’s independent strategy.
Nissan, already in the midst of a turnaround plan involving 9,000 job cuts and a 20% reduction in global capacity, now faces mounting pressure to restructure on its own. Analysts warn that the failed merger raises uncertainty about Nissan’s ability to compete in an industry rapidly shifting toward EVs. “Investors may get concerned about Nissan’s future [and] turnaround,” Morningstar analyst Vincent Sun said.
Complicating matters further, Nissan faces heightened risks from U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Potential tariffs on vehicles manufactured in Mexico could hit Nissan harder than competitors like Honda and Toyota. The stalled deal also impacts Nissan’s existing alliance with Renault, which had expressed openness to the merger. Renault holds a 36% stake in Nissan, including 18.7% through a French trust.
While both Nissan and Honda have stated they will finalize a direction by mid-February, the collapse of this deal signals deep divisions in Japan’s auto industry. With Nissan’s financial struggles and the growing dominance of Chinese EV makers, the company must now navigate an increasingly challenging market without external support.
Business
USPS suspends inbound packages from China, Hong Kong

Quick Hit:
The U.S. Postal Service has suspended the acceptance of inbound packages from China and Hong Kong, citing security and policy concerns. The move comes as President Donald Trump enforces new tariffs to curb the flow of synthetic opioids into the United States.
Key Details:
- The suspension affects international parcels but does not impact letters or flat mail from China and Hong Kong.
- Trump signed an executive order on Feb. 1st, imposing a 10% tariff on imports linked to China’s synthetic opioid supply chain.
- In response, China has announced retaliatory tariffs and launched an anti-monopoly investigation into U.S. tech firms.
Diving Deeper:
The United States Postal Service (USPS) has announced the immediate suspension of inbound package acceptance from China and Hong Kong, a move aligned with President Donald Trump’s recent efforts to crack down on illicit drug trafficking. While the suspension blocks parcels from entering the country, it does not impact letters or flat mail, according to the USPS statement.
The decision comes as Trump signed an executive order on Feb. 1st, imposing a 10% tariff targeting Chinese chemical companies accused of fueling the fentanyl crisis in America. The order alleges that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has subsidized firms exporting fentanyl precursors, which are frequently used to manufacture synthetic opioids that have contributed to tens of thousands of American deaths.
“These companies exploit international trade loopholes, using fraudulent invoices, deceptive packaging, and re-shippers to evade detection,” Trump stated. The administration argues that these tactics enable the smuggling of lethal drugs into the U.S. under the guise of legitimate commerce.
China has responded swiftly to the escalating trade measures, announcing countertariffs on key U.S. exports, including coal, liquefied natural gas, crude oil, and agricultural equipment. Additionally, the Chinese government has initiated an anti-monopoly probe into Alphabet Inc.’s Google while adding U.S. companies PVH Corp. and Illumina to its “unreliable entities list.” Beijing has also imposed export restrictions on rare earth metals essential to high-tech industries.
The USPS suspension, combined with the new tariffs, signals a renewed push by Trump to hold China accountable for its role in the opioid crisis while reinforcing his America First trade agenda. With tensions mounting between the two global powers, further economic retaliation from Beijing remains a possibility.
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