Business
Federal government’s capital gains tax hike is worse than you think
From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro
Following the recent plunge in Canadian and U.S. stock markets, many Canadians likely saw a sharp decline in the value of their investments. Yet as Canadians reckon with this sudden change, other factors help reduce the return on their investments—namely, higher capital gains taxes.
When an investor sells a capital asset (i.e. stocks) for a higher price than they originally bought it, they realize a capital gain. Prior to this year, investors would pay tax on 50 per cent of any gain (based on their highest marginal personal income tax rate), but the Trudeau government recently increased that inclusion rate to 66.7 per cent for capital gains above $250,000.
This increase will cause economic damage and increase taxes for many middle-class Canadians—despite being framed by the government as a tax increase on the wealthy. And the effect is even more harmful than it first appears because capital gains taxes don’t adjust for inflation.
Inflation, the general rise in the prices of goods and services in the economy, erodes the purchasing power of money. For example, if a basket of goods costs $100 in Year 1, and annual inflation is 4 per cent, that exact same basket would cost $104 in Year 2. The Bank of Canada maintains a target inflation rate of 2 per cent per year, but in recent years the rate has well-exceeded that target.
From 2021 to 2023, Canada experienced an average annual inflation rate of 4.7 per cent. And though inflation is easing and fell to 2.5 per cent last month, by the end of this year prices are still expected to be 17.5 per cent higher than they were in 2020. For comparison, prices increased 6.7 per cent from 2016 to 2020.
While inflation erodes the purchasing power of one dollar, it also erodes the returns people receive from their investments. If an asset increases in value by 5 per cent over one year, but inflation is 4 per cent, the asset’s real value has increased by just 1 percentage point. In other words, of the total 5 per cent gain, 4 percentage points are the “inflationary” gain while 1 percentage point is the “real” gain.
Which takes us back to the Trudeau government’s tax hike on capital gains. Unlike income thresholds for federal personal income taxes, which are adjusted to account for inflation, capital gains taxes don’t distinguish between “inflationary” and “real” gains. Therefore, even if a realized capital gain is solely inflationary—meaning there’s no increase in real wealth—the federal government will still levy the same amount of tax as it would if there was no inflation at all.
This is what’s happening right now. After years of high inflation, inflationary gains represent a significant share of the capital gains Canadians are currently realizing. For example, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2023, the S&P/TSX Composite Index (Canada’s benchmark stock market index) increased 22.6 per cent. However, after adjusting for inflation (a cumulative 14.7 per cent), that 22.6 per cent represents a real gain of less than 8.0 per cent. As such, a large portion of revenue the Trudeau government expects to generate from raising capital gains taxes will originate from inflationary gains rather than actual increases in asset values.
As Canadians struggle with a weak economy, the Trudeau government’s recent capital gains tax hike will only add to the problem. But after years of high inflation, the effect is even worse than you might think.
Authors:
Business
Stripped and shipped: Patel pushes denaturalization, deportation in Minnesota fraud
FBI Director Kash Patel issued a blunt warning over the weekend as federal investigators continue unraveling a sprawling fraud operation centered in Minnesota, saying the hundreds of millions already uncovered represent “just the tip of a very large iceberg.”
In a lengthy statement posted to social media, Patel said the Federal Bureau of Investigation had quietly surged agents and investigative resources into the state well before the scandal gained traction online. That effort, he said, led to the takedown of an estimated $250 million fraud scheme that stole federal food aid intended for vulnerable children during the COVID pandemic.
According to Patel, the investigation exposed a network of sham vendors, shell companies, and large-scale money laundering operations tied to the Feeding Our Future case. Defendants named by the FBI include Abdiwahab Ahmed Mohamud, Ahmed Ali, Hussein Farah, Abdullahe Nur Jesow, Asha Farhan Hassan, Ousman Camara, and Abdirashid Bixi Dool, each charged with offenses ranging from wire fraud to conspiracy and money laundering.
Patel also said Abdimajid Mohamed Nur and others were charged in a separate attempt to bribe a juror with $120,000 in cash. He noted that several related cases have already resulted in guilty pleas, prison sentences of up to 10 years, and nearly $48 million in restitution orders.
Despite those outcomes, Patel warned the case is far from finished.
“The FBI believes this is just the tip of a very large iceberg,” he said, adding that investigators will continue following the money and that the probe remains ongoing. Patel further confirmed that many of those convicted are being referred to immigration authorities for possible denaturalization and deportation proceedings where legally applicable.
The renewed focus follows a viral video circulated by independent journalist Nick Shirley, which appeared to show multiple childcare and learning centers operating as empty or nonfunctional storefronts. The footage sparked immediate backlash from Republicans, including Vice President JD Vance.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer accused Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz of sitting idle while massive sums were stolen from taxpayers. Walz addressed the allegations during a November press conference, before the full scope of the fraud became public, saying the scandal “undermines trust in government” and threatens programs meant to help vulnerable residents.
“If you’re committing fraud, no matter where you come from or what you believe, you are going to go to jail,” Walz said at the time.
Authorities say the alleged schemes date back to at least 2015, beginning with overbilling Minnesota’s Child Care Assistance Program and later expanding into Medicaid-funded disability and housing programs. One such housing initiative, aimed at helping seniors and disabled residents secure stable housing, was shut down earlier this year after officials cited what they described as large-scale fraud.
The fallout has already reached the federal level. Last month, President Trump announced the suspension of Temporary Protected Status for Somali nationals, arguing that Minnesota had become a hub for organized welfare fraud and money laundering activity.
Business
Mainstream media missing in action as YouTuber blows lid off massive taxpayer fraud
Vice President JD Vance is giving public credit to a YouTube journalist for doing what he says legacy media and elite institutions have failed to do: follow the money in Minnesota. In a post on X, Vance praised independent reporter Nick Shirley for digging into alleged fraud networks tied to the state, saying Shirley “has done far more useful journalism than any of the winners of the 2024 Pulitzer prizes.” The comment was a direct response to a video Shirley shared online documenting what he described as widespread fraud, with Shirley claiming his team identified more than $110 million in suspicious activity in a single day while confronting facilities allegedly receiving millions in public funds.
Shirley’s reporting has been circulating widely among conservatives, with commentators amplifying clips of him visiting supposed daycare and education centers that appeared inactive despite receiving massive federal aid. Conservative media personality Benny Johnson said Shirley had exposed more than $100 million in Minnesota Somali-linked fraud routed through fake daycare and healthcare fronts, adding to the pressure on state leadership. The issue gained further traction after Tom Emmer, Minnesota’s top House Republican, demanded answers from Gov. Tim Walz following a viral clip showing Shirley confronting workers at an alleged daycare in South Minneapolis. Shirley reported the center, called the “Quality Learning Center,” showed no visible activity despite claims it served up to 99 children, and even misspelled “learning” on its signage. As Shirley approached, a woman inside was heard shouting “Don’t open up,” while incorrectly accusing him of being an ICE agent.
🚨 Here is the full 42 minutes of my crew and I exposing Minnesota fraud, this might be my most important work yet. We uncovered over $110,000,000 in ONE day. Like it and share it around like wildfire! Its time to hold these corrupt politicians and fraudsters accountable
We ALL… pic.twitter.com/E3Penx2o7a
— Nick shirley (@nickshirleyy) December 26, 2025
The controversy builds on earlier reporting from City Journal, which published a November investigation citing federal counterterrorism sources who said millions of dollars siphoned through Minnesota fraud schemes had been sent overseas, with some of the money allegedly ending up in the hands of Al-Shabaab. One confidential source quoted in the report bluntly claimed, “The largest funder of Al-Shabaab is the Minnesota taxpayer.” Since that report, the scrutiny has widened inside the Trump administration. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced that the Treasury Department is examining whether Minnesota taxpayer funds were diverted to terrorist-linked groups, while Education Secretary Linda McMahon has publicly called on Walz to resign amid separate allegations of large-scale education fraud within the state’s college system.
Taken together, the attention from Vance, congressional Republicans, and multiple federal agencies has elevated Shirley’s reporting from viral internet content to a flashpoint in a broader debate over fraud, accountability, and the role of independent journalists. For the vice president, the message was clear: real accountability sometimes comes not from prize committees or press rooms, but from outsiders willing to ask uncomfortable questions and stand in front of locked doors with a camera rolling.
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