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Federal government clearly misstates its economic record

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4 minute read

From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

“since 2015 Canada has posted some of the weakest economic growth numbers, measured on a per-person basis, in half a century”

“Denominator blindness” refers to situations where people fail to put what seem to be big numbers into proper context. The affliction is especially common among governments seeking to justify their spending and other policy decisions. In Canada, denominator blindness has become a central feature of the narratives peddled by many politicians.

For example, the Trudeau government’s recent economic update, which includes a forward by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland where she notes that the International Monetary Fund expects Canada to have “the strongest economic growth in the G7 next year.” She also insists her government is fostering economic growth that “creates middle class jobs, raises incomes, and makes middle class communities more prosperous.”

Both claims lack context and misstate the government’s economic record.

Prosperity is measured using both a numerator, typically the amount of output the economy produces in a year, and a denominator, the size of the population. A larger population means the economic pie must be divided into more slices to estimate how much “output” is available to the average resident. With a rapidly expanding population, the economy must generate a lot more output merely to stop the individual pie slices from shrinking.

Minister Freeland is correct that Canada’s economy has been growing, both since the worst of the COVID shock in late-2020/early-2021 and over the period when the Trudeau government has been in power. But she ignores the bigger picture, which shows two important things.

First, since 2015 Canada has posted some of the weakest economic growth numbers, measured on a per-person basis, in half a century. The pattern of feeble economic growth was evident before the onset of COVID.

Second, Canada is among the few advanced economies where output or gross domestic product (GDP) per person in 2023 has still not returned to pre-pandemic levels. In part, this reflects surging population growth, which affects the denominator that helps determine whether economic growth is producing gains in average incomes and living standards. In Canada’s case, modest economic growth combined with a skyrocketing population has resulted in a multi-year decline in per-person income and erosion of overall prosperity. Adjusted for inflation, GDP per person is still 2 per cent lower than in 2019.

Denominator blindness also characterizes recent attempts by the federal, Ontario and Quebec governments to explain why they’re allocating up to $50 billion in subsidies and tax incentives to lure a handful of electric vehicle battery manufacturers to Canada. The politicians making these decisions point to the several thousand jobs the EV manufacturing facilities will support once they are fully operational. But they won’t discuss how this fits within the larger job market.

Total employment in Canada is 20.1 million, with almost 1.8 million jobs in manufacturing. The vast sums being thrown at EV battery manufacturers will have essentially no impact on the aggregate job numbers and barely make a ripple, even in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, not all the promised EV jobs will be “new” positions—many workers attracted to the EV industry will likely be drawn from other businesses, worsening skill shortages that are plaguing Canadian manufacturers.

Perhaps aspiring politicians should be required to study the basic arithmetic of fractions before they run for office.

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‘Serious Problem’: America’s Cutting Edge Weaponry Is Dependent On Chinese Tech, Experts Warn

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

 

By Jake Smith

American defense startups are far too reliant on Chinese parts — and that poses a serious risk of exploitation by Beijing, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Business is booming as hundreds of defense startups have joined the growing U.S. military-industrial complex since 2021, according to The Wall Street Journal. But defense contractors are heavily dependent on China for parts for weapons systems, including motors, chips and rare earth minerals, which poses potential avenues for Beijing to exploit or hamper American technologies, experts told the DCNF.

“This is a serious problem for two reasons,” John Lee, senior defense expert at the Hudson Institute, told the DCNF. “First, as we saw during the pandemic, over-reliance on Chinese supply chains for components and inputs leaves countries and economies vulnerable to politically or policy-motivated restrictions being imposed by Beijing.”

“Second, components can have elements inserted into them without the knowledge of the end user. This could be spying equipment, channels for China to disable or damage the component from a distance, or even materials that can weaponize the component,” Lee said.

New defense contractors particularly rely on these parts because they don’t enjoy the same cash reserve that the industry giants do, and China makes and sells the parts for a cheaper price.

But these startups don’t want to be so reliant on China, given that the country is actively trying to undermine the U.S. and would likely be an adversary in a global war scenario, industry executives told the WSJ.

Decoupling from China-based entities proves difficult and expensive, defense startups told the WSJ, though it’s the only option in the long term.

“There’s a lot of lip-flapping about national security resilience manufacturing. But there’s no money for us to do this,” Scott Cololismo, CEO of defense startup LAND Energy, told the WSJ. LAND has some funding grants from the Pentagon, but needs more support to thrive, Colosimo explained.

The rare-earth minerals that China provides U.S. defense contractors — including neodymium, yttrium and samarium — are of particular value, given that they are essential for most high-tech military equipment, including laser and missile systems, jet engines, communications devices and even nuclear propulsion systems.

“Critical minerals are the building blocks for many of the most sensitive products in our defense industry,” Adam Savit, director of the China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Initiative, told the DCNF. “China can abuse its dominant position in other critical mineral supply chains at any time.”

“The only long-term solution to this is to enact comprehensive permitting reform to approve domestic mining projects, and work with allied nations to develop new production when the U.S. lacks the relevant natural resources,” Savit said.

Savit’s warning that China can upset the supply chain of rare earth minerals also invokes a broader problem — China can cut the supply line for any of the parts needed by U.S. defense contractors, for any time or reason it chooses.

“If your supply chain runs dry, you have nothing to sell,” Ryan Beall, founder of drone manufacturer TILT Autonomy, told the WSJ.

Lee warned that the problem exposes the U.S. and West’s gaps in domestic supply chain capabilities for their respective defense industrial bases, which creates a vacuum that other actors like China find ways to exploit.

China supplies over 90% of the magnets used in motors for ships, missiles, satellites and drones, according to the WSJ. Republican Reps. Elise Stefanik and Rob Wittman sent a letter to an Air Force official last week and called the reliance on China “a serious national security threat,” pointing to an example in a report last year that found the Air Force increased its dependence on China for parts by 69%.

The idea to stop relying on China for resources became more popular after the COVID-19 pandemic, which created massive supply chain shortages in various sectors, including healthcare products. But in the defense capacity, it will take years to produce parts domestically, according to the WSJ.

“There has been a hollowing out of manufacturing and industrial capabilities in the West which provides China with an enormous advantage,” Lee told the DCNF. “In the event of a crisis against a country such as China, this will become very dangerous for the U.S. and its allies.”

Unable to wait for domestic capabilities to improve and increasingly wary of buying from China, new defense contractors are turning to other alternatives for parts, according to the WSJ. Sourcing components from Mexico and Southeast Asia, utilizing 3-D printing and buying parts in bulk have been some of the creative ways contractors are solving the problem.

Industry experts also expect that the U.S. government is likely to restrict some Chinese parts used by contractors in a bid to move toward domestic capabilities, according to the WSJ. Some restrictions on items used to produce cameras and radios already exist.

“If the government wants a U.S. supply chain, that’s fine, but they need to be clear about their requirements, and they need to pay for it,” Beall told the WSJ.

Featured Image: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Aaron Lau

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Taxpayers Federation joins constitutional court fight regarding equalization expansion

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From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation

Author: Carson Binda 

“Provincial governments want the courts to force Ottawa to give them even more money through the equalization program”

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is joining the fight against Newfoundland and Labradors’ legal bid to increase federal equalization payments.

“Provincial governments want the courts to force Ottawa to give them even more money through the equalization program and taxpayers simply can’t afford to pay those bills,” said Carson Binda, B.C. Director for the CTF. “Taxpayers in so-called have provinces lose billions through the equalization program, but the payments don’t provide any long-term solutions in recipient provinces.

“The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is getting into this court fight to stop provinces from wasting even more taxpayers’ money on the equalization program.”

The Newfoundland and Labrador government is suing the federal government for more equalization money. Premier Andrew Furey is arguing a province should receive more tax dollars when it can’t afford to pay for new programs that other provinces implement.

“Taxpayers in the rest of Canada shouldn’t be on the hook for whatever new spending provincial politicians want to roll out,” Binda said. “Equalization already costs $25 billion a year – how much would the bill go up if Furey gets his way?”

The CTF filed an application to intervene in the Newfoundland and Labrador Supreme Court on Oct. 3, 2024. The CTF will argue that the Constitution does not give provinces standing to sue Ottawa for bigger equalization payments.

“Canada’s Constitution was never designed to grant provincial governments the authority to forcibly extract more tax dollars from taxpayers in other provinces,” said Devin Drover, CTF General Counsel and Atlantic Director. “We look forward to representing taxpayers in the court in this groundbreaking case.”

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