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Fear of US recession drives global market turmoil

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From The Center Square

“This is a preview of the world markets without Donald J. Trump in the White House. None of this happens if Trump is in. Kamala and the markets don’t go together,” Trump said

The U.S. stock market took a major dive Monday as Japan saw its worst stock market day since 1987, raising recessing fears and drawing fresh criticism for President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

As of Monday morning, the Dow had dropped 900 points and the Nasdaq a whopping 4%, which experts say is fueled by a fear of a coming recession.

Federal jobs data released on Friday showed far fewer jobs were created than expected.

Overseas conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, possibly imminent all-out war between Iran and Israel and the ongoing threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are also constant stability concerns for global markets.

Former President Donald Trump released a flurry of posts blaming Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, for the market downturn, labeling it the “Kamala crash.”

“This is a preview of the world markets without Donald J. Trump in the White House. None of this happens if Trump is in. Kamala and the markets don’t go together,” Trump said in a post online Monday morning. “She’ll destroy the markets. She’s in power now and look at what is happening. One week of the fake media saying better polls and you get a market crash.”

In 2020, Trump predicted that if Biden were to win reelection, the stock market would “crash.”

“Of course there is a massive market downturn,” Trump said. “Kamala is even worse than Crooked Joe. Markets will NEVER accept the Radical Left Lunatic that DESTROYED San Francisco and California, as a whole. Next move, THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 2024! You can’t play games with MARKETS. KAMALA CRASH!!!”

U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, Trump’s pick for Vice President, warned that the economic situation could get much worse if it is not handled well.

“This moment could set off a real economic calamity around the globe,” Vance wrote no X, formerly known as Twitter. “It requires steady leadership–the kind President Trump delivered for four years. Kamala Harris is too afraid to answer media questions and cannot lead us in these troubled times.”

Renowned investor Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway said over the weekend that he had sold over half his stock in Apple, which subsequently saw a 5% decrease in its stock price.

“He is clearly expecting a correction of some kind or otherwise simply cannot see better investments than Treasury bills,” Billionaire Elon Musk wrote on X Sunday in response to the news. “The Fed needs to drop rates. They have been foolish not to have done so already.”

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Pension and Severance Estimate for 110 MP’s Who Resigned or Were Defeated in 2025 Federal Election

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By Franco Terrazzano

Taxpayers Federation releases pension and severance figures for 2025 federal election

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation released its calculations of estimated pension and severance payments paid to the 110 members of Parliament who were either defeated in the federal election or did not seek re-election.

“Taxpayers shouldn’t feel too bad for the politicians who lost the election because they’ll be cashing big severance or pension cheques,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Thanks to past pension reforms, taxpayers will not have to shoulder as much of the burden as they used to. But there’s more work to do to make politician pay affordable for taxpayers.”

Defeated or retiring MPs will collect about $5 million in annual pension payments, reaching a cumulative total of about $187 million by age 90. In addition, about $6.6 million in severance cheques will be issued to some former MPs.

Former prime minister Justin Trudeau will collect two taxpayer-funded pensions in retirement. Combined, those pensions total $8.4 million, according to CTF estimates. Trudeau is also taking a $104,900 severance payout because he did not run again as an MP.

The payouts for Trudeau’s MP pension will begin at $141,000 per year when he turns 55 years old. It will total an estimated $6.5 million should he live to the age of 90. The payouts for Trudeau’s prime minister pension will begin at $73,000 per year when he turns 67 years old. It will total an estimated $1.9 million should he live to the age of 90.

“Taxpayers need to see leadership at the top and that means reforming pensions and ending the pay raises MPs take every year,” Terrazzano said. “A prime minister already takes millions through their first pension, they shouldn’t be billing taxpayers more for their second pension.

“The government must end the second pension for all future prime ministers.”

There are 13 former MPs that will collect more than $100,000-plus a year in pension income. The pension and severance calculations for each defeated or retired MP can be found here.

Some notable severance / pensions 

Name                             Party    Years as MP      Severance            Annual Starting      Pension Pension to Age 90

Bergeron, Stéphane        BQ          17.6                                                           $ 99,000.00                 $ 4,440,000.00

Boissonnault, Randy      LPC          7.6                        $ 44,200.00            $ 53,000.00                 $ 2,775,000.00

Dreeshen, Earl                CPC         16.6 $                                                       $ 95,000.00                 $ 1,938,000.00

Mendicino, Marco *  LPC         9.4                                                      $ 66,000.00              $ 3,586,000.00

O’Regan, Seamus             LPC          9.5                       $ 104,900.00          $ 75,000.00                  $ 3,927,000.00

Poilievre, Pierre **    CPC       20.8                                                      $ 136,000.00           $ 7,087,000.00

Singh, Jagmeet           NDP        6.2                     $ 140,300.00       $ 45,000.00             $ 2,694,000.00

Trudeau, Justin ***   LPC       16.6                     $ 104,900.00       $ 141,000.00            $ 8,400,000.00

 

* Marco Mendicino resigned as an MP on March 14th, 2025

** Pierre Poilievre announced that he would not take a severance

*** The Pension to Age 90 includes Trudeau’s MP pension and his secondary Prime Minister’s pension

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New fiscal approach necessary to reduce Ottawa’s mountain of debt

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

Apparently, despite a few days of conflicting statements from the government, the Carney government now plans to table a budget in the fall. If the new prime minister wants to reduce Ottawa’s massive debt burden, which Canadians ultimately bear, he must begin to work now to reduce spending.

According to the federal government’s latest projections, from 2014/15 to 2024/25 total federal debt is expected to double from $1.1 trillion to a projected $2.2 trillion. That means $13,699 in new federal debt for every Canadian (after adjusting for inflation). In addition, from 2020 to 2023, the Trudeau government recorded the four highest years of total federal debt per person (inflation-adjusted) in Canadian history.

How did this happen?

From 2018 to 2023, the government recorded the six highest levels of program spending (inflation-adjusted, on a per-person basis) in Canadian history—even after excluding emergency spending during COVID. Consequently, in 2024/25 Ottawa will run its tenth consecutive budget deficit since 2014/15.

Of course, Canadians bear the burden of this free-spending approach. For example, over the last several years federal debt interest payments have more than doubled to an expected $53.7 billion this year. That’s more than the government plans to spend on health-care transfers to the provinces. And it’s money unavailable for programs including social services.

In the longer term, government debt accumulation can limit economic growth by pushing up interest rates. Why? Because governments compete with individuals, families and businesses for the savings available for borrowing, and this competition puts upward pressure on interest rates. Higher interest rates deter private investment in the Canadian economy—a necessary ingredient for economic growth—and hurt Canadian living standards.

Given these costs, the Carney government should take a new approach to fiscal policy and begin reducing Ottawa’s mountain of debt.

According to both history and research, the most effective and least economically harmful way to achieve this is to reduce government spending and balance the budget, as opposed to raising taxes. While this approach requires tough decisions, which may be politically unpopular in some quarters, worthwhile goals are rarely easy and the long-term gain will exceed the short-term pain. Indeed, a recent study by Canadian economist Bev Dahlby found the long-term economic benefits of a 12-percentage point reduction in debt (as a share of GDP) substantially outweighs the short-term costs.

Unfortunately, while Canadians must wait until the fall for a federal budget, the Carney government’s election platform promises to add—not subtract—from Ottawa’s mountain of debt and from 2025/26 to 2028/29 run annual deficits every year of at least $47.8 billion. In total, these planned deficits represent $224.8 billion in new government debt over the next four years, and there’s currently no plan to balance the budget. This represents a continuation of the Trudeau government’s approach to rack up debt and behave irresponsibly with federal finances.

With a new government on Parliament Hill, now is the time for federal policymakers to pursue the long-ignored imperative of reducing government debt. Clearly, if the Carney government wants to prioritize debt reduction, it must rethink its fiscal plan and avoid repeating the same mistakes of its predecessor.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

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