Alberta
Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
Alberta
Premier Danielle Smith hints Alberta may begin ‘path’ toward greater autonomy after Mark Carney’s win
From LifeSiteNews
Alberta’s premier said her government will be holding a special caucus meeting on Friday to discuss Alberta’s independence.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith hinted her province could soon consider taking serious steps toward greater autonomy from Canada in light of Mark Carney and the Liberal Party winning yesterday’s federal election.
In a statement posted to her social media channels today, Smith, who is head of Alberta’s governing United Conservative Party, warned that “In the weeks and months ahead, Albertans will have an opportunity to discuss our province’s future, assess various options for strengthening and protecting our province against future hostile acts from Ottawa, and to ultimately choose a path forward.”
“As Premier, I will facilitate and lead this discussion and process with the sincere hope of securing a prosperous future for our province within a united Canada that respects our province’s constitutional rights, facilitates rather than blocks the development and export of our abundant resources, and treats us as a valued and respected partner within confederation,” she noted.
While Smith stopped short of saying that Alberta would consider triggering a referendum on independence from Canada, she did say her government will be holding a “special caucus meeting this Friday to discuss this matter further.”
“I will have more to say after that meeting is concluded,” she noted.
Smith’s warning comes at the same time some pre-election polls have shown Alberta’s independence from Canada sentiment at just over 30 percent.
Monday’s election saw Liberal leader Mark Carney beat out Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre, who also lost his seat. The Conservatives managed to pick up over 20 new seats, however, and Poilievre has vowed to stay on as party leader, for now.
In Alberta, almost all of the seats save two at press time went to conservatives.
Carney, like former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau before him, said he is opposed to new pipeline projects that would allow Alberta oil and gas to be unleashed. Also, his green agenda, like Trudeau’s, is at odds with Alberta’s main economic driver, its oil and gas industry.
The federal government under Trudeau pushed since 2015 a radical environmental agenda similar to the agendas being pushed the World Economic Forum’s “Great Reset” and the United Nations “Sustainable Development Goals.”
The Carney government has also pledged to mandate that all new cars and trucks by 2035 be electric, effectively banning the sale of new gasoline- or diesel-only powered vehicles after that year.
The reduction and eventual elimination of the use of so-called “fossil fuels” and a transition to unreliable “green” energy has also been pushed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) – the globalist group behind the socialist “Great Reset” agenda – an organization in which Trudeau and some of his cabinet are involved.
Smith: ‘I will not permit the status quo to continue’
In her statement, Smith noted that she invited Carney to “immediately commence working with our government to reset the relationship between Ottawa and Alberta with meaningful action rather than hollow rhetoric.”
She noted that a large majority of Albertans are “deeply frustrated that the same government that overtly attacked our provincial economy almost unabated for the past 10 years has been returned to government.”
Smith then promised that she would “not permit the status quo to continue.”
“Albertans are proud Canadians that want this nation to be strong, prosperous, and united, but we will no longer tolerate having our industries threatened and our resources landlocked by Ottawa,” she said.
Smith praised Poilievre for empowering “Albertans and our energy sector as a cornerstone of his campaign.”
Smith was against forced COVID jabs, and her United Conservative government has in recent months banned men from competing in women’s sports and passed a bill banning so-called “top and bottom” surgeries for minors as well as other extreme forms of transgender ideology.
Alberta
Hours after Liberal election win, Alberta Prosperity Project drumming up interest in referendum
News release from the Alberta Prosperity Project
Carney’s In. Now what?You’ve been paying attention. You understand this is really bad. Worse than that, it’s dangerous. The country has somehow chosen several more years of a decade-long Trudeau Travesty…on steroids. Because this new Prime Minister has a three digit IQ, deep and questionable connections and a momentum to accelerate the further dis-integration of a nation we all once proudly belonged to. It’s untrue to say the country is dying. But it’s also not a stretch to say it’s on life support. The era of Carney Carnage is here. While every province will experience it, there’s no secret he’s placed an extra big bulls-eye on Alberta. It’s not personal, it’s financial.His plan includes continuing to limit three of Alberta’s most prosperous sectors: energy, agriculture and, by extension, innovation. To acknowledge this requires we abandon our sense of romanticized national nostalgia. Nostalgia is a trap that prevents us from assessing the reality we exist in. For instance, GDP is considered the financial heartbeat of a country. Over the past decade of Liberal Leadership, the national GDP has been an abysmal 1.1%. By relatable comparison, Mexico was 4%, the UK was 6%, Australia had 8% growth and the US was a whopping 19%. That’s great information for an economist, but what does it mean to your pay cheque? The everyday impact on the average Albertan —say, a teacher or mechanic— of 10 long years of 1% GDP means rent’s up at least 25%, a trip to the grocery store always stings, and driving an older car is the norm because an upgrade is out of reach. Does this sound like your reality? We aren’t starving, but we’re not thriving, either.Does this make sense for 4.5 million people living with the third most abundant energy deposits in the world? There’s an absurdity to the situation Albertans find themselves in. It’s akin to being chronically dehydrated while having a fresh water spring in the backyard. The life you’ve invested for, the future you believed was ahead, isn’t happening. If Alberta stays on this path. So what can you, as an Albertan, do about it? This Fall, we’ll be provided an opportunity. A life raft in the form of a referendum. It requires curiosity, imagination and courage to step into it, but the option will be there — a once in a lifetime shot at prosperity for you and your family: Alberta Sovereignty. A successful bid means Albertans can finally paddle out of the perilous economic current that’s battered us for ten long years. Alberta has the resources, talent and spirit of collaboration to create a prosperous future for our families and communities. |
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UPCOMING EVENTS: |
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WHAT CAN ALBERTANS DO?Register Your Intent To Vote “YES” |
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