Alberta
Emissions cap “will not be tolerated in Alberta” – Letter to Environment Minister Guilbeault
Dear Minister Steven Guilbeault,
The federal government’s draft Regulatory Framework to Cap Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions represents a de facto production cap on Alberta’s oil and gas sector. This cap is not realistic or effective, will not achieve its grandiose emissions targets, and will not be tolerated in Alberta.
Today, Alberta is efficiently and effectively regulating and driving emissions from all industrial sectors, including oil and gas, and has been doing so successfully for decades. Our technical submission outlines how your proposed oil and gas emissions cap will undercut this work, and the severe consequences that it will impose on Albertans and all Canadians.
In no way does Alberta’s technical submission alter our province’s position that the proposed emissions cap is unconstitutional. As set out in Section 92A of the Constitution Act, 1867, Alberta has exclusive jurisdiction to manage the rate of non-renewable natural resources production and operational aspects of their development in our province.
If implemented, this cap would have a devastating impact on the economies of Alberta and all of Canada. Analysis from the Conference Board of Canada shows that it would reduce Canada’s GDP by up to $1 trillion between 2030 and 2040 and create up to 151,000 lost jobs across Canada by 2030. Oil and gas production would be curtailed, tens of thousands could be out of work, and the economic impact would be felt from coast to coast.
We have identified an overwhelming number of flaws in your government’s proposed framework. For example, your assumed production forecasts – which form the basis of the cap – are from 2019. Alberta’s total oil and natural gas production has already risen past 2019 levels, and multiple forecasts project oil sands production to increase significantly by 2030. Similarly, the technologies needed to massively abate emissions in the oil and gas sector either don’t yet exist or aren’t being developed at the rate and scale that your modelling requires.
Many of these technologies and investments are supported by Alberta and will eventually deliver real and sustained reductions, but not by 2030. As well, our submission clearly demonstrates that:
• The proposed cap would violate Section 92A of the Constitution, and result in oil and gas production cuts and shut-ins in Alberta.
• It is based on a flawed regulatory framework and policy design that is ineffective, inefficient and will not produce the intended emission reductions.
• The proposed cap will negatively impact Alberta’s economy, as well as the economies of provinces and territories across the country, including the Canadian economy overall.
• It will undercut Canada’s competitiveness and drastically reduce investments in clean technologies like carbon capture, which are critical to meaningfully reducing emissions in the coming years.
• It is unnecessary and will undermine effective provincial-led decarbonizing approaches and initiatives already underway or proposed in Alberta and across Canada.
• It will lead to carbon leakage, with oil and gas production and greenhouse gas emissions increasing in other countries with less robust environmental and human rights standards.
Alberta is confident that the many of issues raised in this document are shared by other provinces and industry leaders, both within the oil and gas sector and beyond.
All greenhouse gas emissions have the same global impact, regardless of the sector or region in which they are produced. Instead of pursuing this unconstitutional cap, we are calling on your government to immediately halt further development and begin meaningful collaboration within established provincial regulatory regimes on oil and gas regulation and emissions reductions.
Alberta would welcome federal investment to help the oil and gas industry – and other industries – advance and adopt technology to reduce emissions to support our goals of carbon neutrality by 2050.
Alberta aspires to achieve a carbon neutral economy without compromising affordable, reliable, and secure energy for Alberta, Canada and the world. We know this relies on and requires investment to advance clean technology solutions.
We invite you to join us in implementing our Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan to achieve carbon neutrality while continuing the development of Alberta’s world-class natural energy resources for Canada and the world.
Sincerely,
Rebecca Schulz
Minister of Environment and Protected Areas
“If Ottawa had it’s way Albertans would be left to freeze in the dark”
The ineffective federal net-zero electricity regulations will not reduce emissions or benefit Albertans but will increase costs and lead to supply shortages.
The risk of power outages during a hot summer or the depths of harsh winter cold snaps, are not unrealistic outcomes if these regulations are implemented. According to the Alberta Electric System Operator’s analysis, the regulations in question would make Alberta’s electricity system more than 100 times less reliable than the province’s supply adequacy standard. Albertans expect their electricity to remain affordable and reliable, but implementation of these regulations could increase costs by a staggering 35 per cent.
Canada’s constitution is clear. Provinces have exclusive jurisdiction over the development, conservation and management of sites and facilities in the province for the generation and production of electrical energy. That is why Alberta’s government is referring the constitutionality of the federal government’s recent net-zero electricity regulations to the Court of Appeal of Alberta.
“The federal government refused to work collaboratively or listen to Canadians while developing these regulations. The results are ineffective, unachievable and irresponsible, and place Albertans’ livelihoods – and more importantly, lives – at significant risk. Our government will not accept unconstitutional net-zero regulations that leave Albertans vulnerable to blackouts in the middle of summer and winter when they need electricity the most.”
“The introduction of the Clean Electricity Regulations in Alberta by the federal government is another example of dangerous federal overreach. These regulations will create unpredictable power outages in the months when Albertans need reliable energy the most. They will also cause power prices to soar in Alberta, which will hit our vulnerable the hardest.”
Finalized in December 2024, the federal electricity regulations impose strict carbon limits on fossil fuel power, in an attempt to force a net-zero grid, an unachievable target given current technology and infrastructure. The reliance on unproven technologies makes it almost impossible to operate natural gas plants without costly upgrades, threatening investment, grid reliability, and Alberta’s energy security.
“Ottawa’s electricity regulations will leave Albertans in the dark. They aren’t about reducing emissions – they are unconstitutional, ideological activist policies based on standards that can’t be met and technology that doesn’t exist. It will drive away investment and punish businesses, provinces and families for using natural gas for reliable, dispatchable power. We will not put families at risk from safety and affordability impacts – rationing power during the coldest days of the year – and we will continue to stand up for Albertans.”
“Albertans depend on electricity to provide for their families, power their businesses and pursue their dreams. The federal government’s Clean Electricity Regulations threaten both the affordability and reliability of our power grid, and we will not stand by as these regulations put the well-being of Albertans at risk.”
Related information
- Conference Board of Canada socio-economic Impacts of Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan – (April 2025)
- Alberta Electric System Operator’s position on Canadian Energy Regulations
Oh, Canada
We find it endlessly fascinating that most Canadians believe they live in a representative democracy, where aspiring candidates engage in authentic politicking to earn their place in office. So accustomed are Canada’s power brokers to getting their way, they rarely bother to cover their tracks. A careful reading of the notoriously pliant Canadian press makes anticipating future events in the country surprisingly straightforward.
Back in December, when Pierre Poilievre was given better than 90% odds of replacing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau—and Mark Carney was still just an uncharismatic banker few had heard of—we engaged in some not-so-speculative dot-connecting and correctly predicted Carney’s rise to the top spot. Our interest was driven by the notoriously rocky relationship between Ottawa and the Province of Alberta, home to one of the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves, and how Carney’s rise might be a catalyst for resetting Canada’s energy trajectory. In a follow-up article titled “The Fix Is In,” we laid out a few more predictions:
“Here’s how the play is likely to unfold in the weeks and months ahead: Carney will be elected Prime Minister on April 28 by a comfortable margin; [Alberta Premier Danielle] Smith will trigger a constitutional crisis, providing cover for Carney to strike a grand bargain that finally resolves longstanding tensions between the provinces and Ottawa; and large infrastructure permitting reform will fall into place. Protests against these developments will be surprisingly muted, and those who do take to the streets will be largely ignored by the media. The entire effort will be wrapped in a thicket of patriotism, with Trump portrayed as a threat even greater than climate change itself. References to carbon emissions will slowly fade…
In parallel, we expect Trump and Carney to swiftly strike a favorable deal on tariffs, padding the latter’s bona fides just as his political capital will be most needed.”
The votes have barely been counted, yet the next moves are already unfolding…
“Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she’ll make it easier for citizens to initiate a referendum on the province’s future in Canada, after warning that a Liberal win in Monday’s election could spur a groundswell of support for Alberta separatism. Smith said on Tuesday that a newly tabled elections bill will give everyday Albertans a bigger say in the province’s affairs.
‘(We’re giving) Albertans more ways to be directly involved in democracy, and to have their say on issues that matter to them,’ Smith told reporters in Edmonton.
If passed, the new law would dramatically lower the number of signatures needed to put a citizen-proposed constitutional referendum question on the ballot, setting a new threshold of 10 per cent of general election turnout — or just over 175,000, based on Alberta’s last provincial election in 2023.”
“US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is looking to make a trade deal and will visit the White House within the next week. Trump said he congratulated Carney on his election victory when the Canadian leader called on Tuesday.
‘He called me up yesterday – he said let’s make a deal,’ Trump told reporters at the White House after a televised Cabinet meeting.”
Remember where you read it first.
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