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Do Minimum Wage Laws Accomplish Anything?

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The Audit

David Clinton

All the smart people tell us that, one way or another, increasing the minimum wage will change society. Proponents claim raising pay at the low end of the economy will help low-income working families survive in hyper-expensive communities. Opponents claim that artificially increasing employment costs will either drive employers towards adopting innovative automation integrations or to shut down their businesses altogether. Either way, goes the anti-intervention narrative, there will be fewer jobs available.

Well, what’ll it be? Canadian provinces have been experimenting with minimum wage laws for many years. And since 2021, the federal government has imposed its own rate for employees of all federally regulated industries. There should be plenty of good data out there by now indicating who was right.

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Historical records on provincial rates going back decades is available from Statistics Canada. For this research, I used data starting in 2011. Since new rates often come into effect mid-year, I only applied a year’s latest rate to the start of the following year. 2022 itself, for simplicity, was measured by the new federal rate, with the exception of British Columbia who’s rate was $0.10 higher than the federal rate.

My goal was to look for evidence that increasing statutory wage rates impacted these areas:

  • Earnings among workers in full-service restaurants
  • Operating profit margins for full-service restaurants
  • Total numbers of active businesses in the accommodation and food services industries

I chose to focus on the food service industry because it’s particularly dependent on low-wage workers and particularly sensitive to labour costs. Outcomes here should tell us a lot about the impact such government policies are having.

Restaurant worker income is reported as total numbers. In other words, we can see how much all of, say, Manitoba’s workers combined took home in a given year. For those numbers to make sense, I adjusted them using overall provincial populations.

Income in British Columbia and PEI showed a strong correlation to increasing minimum wages. Interestingly, BC has consistently had the highest of all provinces’ minimum wage while PEI’s has mostly hung around the middle of the pack. Besides a weak negative correlation in Saskatchewan, there was no indication that income in other provinces either dropped or grew in sync with increases to the minimum wage.

Nation-wide, by weighting results by population numbers, we got a Pearson coefficient 0.30. That means it’s unlikely that wage rate changes had any impact on take-home income.

Did increases harm restaurants? It doesn’t look like it. I used data measuring active employer businesses in the accommodation and food services industries. No provinces showed any impact on business startups and exits that could be connected to minimum wage laws. Overall, Canada’s coefficient value was 0.29 – again a very weak positive relationship.

So restaurants haven’t been collapsing at epic, extinction-level rates. But do government minimums cause a reduction in their operating profit margins? Apparently not. If anything, they’ve become more profitable!

The nation-wide coefficient between minimum wages and restaurant profitability was 0.88 – suggesting a strong correlation. But how could that be happening? Don’t labour costs make up a major chunk of food service operating expenses? Here are a few possible explanations:

  • Perhaps many restaurants respond to rising costs by increasing their menu prices. This can work out well if market demand turns out to be relatively inelastic and people continue eating out despite higher prices.
  • Higher wages might lead to lower employee turnover, reducing hiring and training costs.
  • A higher minimum wage boosts worker incomes, leading to more disposable income in the economy. Although the flip-side is that we can’t see strong evidence of higher worker income.
  • Higher wages can force unprofitable, inefficient restaurants to close, leaving stronger businesses with higher market share.

In any case, my big-picture verdict on government intervention into private sector wage rates is: thanks but don’t bother. All that effort doesn’t seem to have improved actual incomes on a population scale. At the same time, it also hasn’t driven industries with workers at the low-end of the pay scale to devastating collapse.

But I’m sure it has taken up enormous amounts of public service time and resources that could undoubtedly have been more gainfully spent elsewhere. More important, as the economist Alex Tabarrok recently pointed out, minimum wage laws have been shown to reduce employment for the disabled and measurably increase both consumer prices and workplace injuries.

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Carney praises Trump’s world ‘leadership’ at G7 meeting in Canada

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From LifeSiteNews

By Anthony Murdoch

Canada’s prime minister said it was a ‘great honor’ to host the U.S. president and praised him for saying Canada wants to work with the U.S. ‘hand-in-hand.’

During the second day of the G7 leaders meeting in the Kananaskis area in Alberta, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney praised U.S. President Donald Trump’s world “leadership” despite saying many negative things about him during his election campaign.

While speaking to reporters Monday, Trump hinted that a new trade deal between Canada and the United States was potentially only “weeks” away. This came after a private meeting with Carney before the official G7 talks commenced.

“We’ve developed a very good relationship. And we’re going to be talking about trade and many other things,” Trump told reporters.

Carney was less vocal, however. He used the opportunity to tell reporters he was happy Trump came to his country for the G7 meeting, saying it was a “great honor” to host him.

“This marks the 50th birthday of the G7, and the G7 is nothing without U.S. leadership,” Carney told reporters.

He then spoke about Trump’s “personal leadership” on world issues and praised him for saying Canada wants to work with the U.S. “hand-in-hand.”

Carney ran his election campaign by claiming the Conservative Party would bow to Trump’s demands despite the fact that the party never said such things.

During his federal election campaign, Carney repeatedly took issue with Trump and the U.S. that turned into an anti-American Canadian legacy media frenzy.

However, the reality is, after Carney won the April 28 federal election, Trump praised him, saying, “Canada chose a very talented person.”

Trump has routinely suggested that Canada become an American state in recent months, often making such statements while talking about or implementing trade tariffs on Canadian goods.

As for Carney, he has said his government plans to launch a “new economy” in Canada that will involve “deepening” ties to the world.

 

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Carney’s Honeymoon Phase Enters a ‘Make-or-Break’ Week

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From the National Citizens Coalition 

The National Citizens Coalition (NCC) is sounding the alarm on a critical week for the Carney government, which, despite enjoying an unearned honeymoon in the polls, has delivered zero results for everyday Canadians. As the G7 summit looms large and the House of Commons prepares to adjourn, this is a make-or-break moment for Prime Minister Mark Carney to prove his government is more than empty promises. Canadians are watching, and the NCC is calling out the glaring failures that threaten a grim summer of economic decline, and continued crime, chaos, and rising unemployment.

Housing Minister Gregor Robertson Caught in $10.85 Million Scandal

Recent revelations from Blacklock’s Reporter expose Housing Minister Gregor Robertson’s attempt to conceal $10.85 million in personal property investments during Commons questioning. This shocking lack of transparency from the minister tasked with addressing Canada’s housing crisis raises serious questions about his integrity and ability to prioritize Canadians struggling with skyrocketing costs. While Robertson dodges accountability, and Carney apparently scoffs at providing housing relief to millions suffering under a Liberal-made crisis, young professionals and young families are wondering if they’ll ever have a chance to own a home bigger than Canada’s much-maligned supply of ‘dog-crate condos.’

The NCC demands a full ethics investigation, the resignation of Gregor Robertson — who, as one of the architects of the Vancouver housing crisis, should have never been handed this file to begin with — and immediate action to restore trust in this critical portfolio.

Pipeline Delays and Provincial Obstruction Threaten Economic Growth

The Carney government’s inaction on pipelines is stalling Canada’s economic potential. Despite promises of “nation-building projects,” British Columbia and Quebec continue to block and veto critical energy infrastructure, with Carney failing to assert federal leadership. His vague talk of “consensus” and “decarbonized” barrels has led to zero progress, leaving Alberta’s economy in limbo and Canadians facing higher energy costs. With no clear plan to advance projects, the government is squandering opportunities to create jobs and secure energy sovereignty. The NCC urges Carney to act decisively this week to break the provincial logjam and deliver results.

Immigration Chaos: Lena Diab’s Unchecked Honour System Fails Canadians

Immigration Minister Lena Diab’s reliance on an ‘honour system’ for millions of temporary visitors with expiring visas is a recipe for disaster. As Canada grapples with unsustainable immigration levels, Diab’s apparent plan for millions of temporary workers and failed ‘diploma mill’ attendees assumes compliance without enforcement, ignoring the high-propensity for fraud, and the ongoing and urgent strain on housing, healthcare, and public services. The Liberals’ Strong Borders Act promises reform, but its loaded with unnecessary overreach and vague measures.

A lack of urgency leaves Canadians vulnerable to further crime, chaos, closed emergency rooms, high rents, and failing infrastructure. With immigration continuing to spiral out of control, the NCC calls for concrete action to drastically lower immigration targets, expedite deportations, and prioritize Canadian citizens and the record amounts of unemployed before the House adjourns.

Canadians Deserve Results, Not More Hollow “Elbows up” or “Team Canada” Rhetoric

This week’s G7 summit in Alberta and the impending House adjournment are the Carney government’s last chance to show leadership, before an undeserved summer break for a government that will be overseeing deepening economic decline, rising crime under a refusal to tackle catch-and-release bail, and growing unemployment. Canadians cannot afford another season of unfulfilled promises and unchecked crises. The NCC demands Carney use the G7 platform to secure trade stability, meaningful energy deals with our allies, and table a federal budget to address the cost-of-living crisis made worse by inflationary Liberal spending. Failure to act now will cement an early legacy of inaction and leave Canadians to endure a prolonged period of hardship.

“The Carney government’s honeymoon has been built on hype, not results,” says NCC Director Alexander Brown. “From Gregor Robertson’s hidden millions, to stalled pipelines, to an immigration system in continued disarray, Canadians — and particularly young Canadians — are being let down. This week is Carney’s chance to prove he can deliver beyond the lies that were told to placate a portion of the electorate at the polls. If he fails to act, the economic decline, the crime and chaos, will only worsen, and everyday Canadians will pay the price.

“True Canadian leaders like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith are in attendance at the G7 along with Carney. If actual acts of ‘nation-building,’ and not more net-zero de-growth, do not come naturally to the PM, he should turn to those who have never wavered in their quest to make life more affordable for the hard-working citizens they are privileged to represent, and who know when to get out of the way to allow Canadians to prosper. More of the same internal, ideological sabotage from the Liberals cannot ruin this dire moment for Canada’s rebirth and recovery.”

The NCC calls on all Canadians to hold the Carney government accountable. Join us in demanding transparency, action, and results before the House adjourns and the G7 summit concludes. Together, we can fight for a stronger, more prosperous Canada.

About the National Citizens Coalition: Founded in 1967, the NCC is a non-profit organization dedicated to advocating for individual freedom, lower taxes, less government waste, and a stronger Canada. We hold governments accountable and fight for the interests of everyday Canadians.

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