Crime
Despite recent bail reform flip-flops, Canada is still more dangerous than we’d prefer
Our Criminal Justice System Is Changing
58 percent of individuals sentenced to community supervision had at least one prior conviction for a violent offence. 68 percent of those given custodial sentences were similarly repeat offenders. In fact, 59 percent of offenders serving custodial sentences had previously been convicted at least 10 times.
Back in 2019, the federal Liberals passed Bill C-75, “An Act to amend the Criminal Code, the Youth Criminal Justice Act and other Acts”. Among other things, the law established a Principle of Restraint that required courts to minimize unnecessary pre-trial detention. This has been characterized as a form of “catch and release” that sacrifices public safety in general, and victims’ rights in particular on the altar of social justice.
I’m no lawyer, but I can’t see how the legislation’s actual language supports that interpretation. In fact, as we can see from the government’s official overview of the law, courts must still give serious consideration to public safety:
The amendments…legislate a “principle of restraint” for police and courts to ensure that release at the earliest opportunity is favoured over detention, that bail conditions are reasonable, relevant to the offence and necessary to ensure public safety, and that sureties are imposed only when less onerous forms of release are inadequate.
So unlike in some U.S. jurisdictions, Canadian courts are still able use their discretion to restrict an accused’s freedom. That’s not to say everyone’s always happy with how Canadian judges choose to use such discretion, but judicial outcomes appear to lie in their hands, rather than with legislation.
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Arguably, C-75 did come with a “soft-on-crime” tone (in particular as the law relates to certain minority communities). But even that was mostly reversed by 2023’s Bill C-48, which introduced reverse onus for repeat offenders and required judges to explicitly consider the safety of the community (whatever that means).
Nevertheless, the system is clearly far from perfect. Besides the occasional high-profile news reports about offenders committing new crimes while awaiting trials for previous offences, the population-level data suggests that our streets are not nearly as safe as they should be.
As far as I can tell, Statistics Canada doesn’t publish numbers on repeat offences committed by offenders free while waiting for trial. But I believe we can get at least part of the way there using two related data points:
- Conviction rates
- Repeat offender rates
Between 2019 and 2023, conviction rates across Canada on homicide charges for adults averaged 42 percent, while similar charges against youth offenders resulted in convictions in 65 percent of cases. That means we can safely assume that a significant proportion of accused offenders were, in fact, criminally violent even before reaching trial.
We can use different Statistics Canada data to understand how likely it is that those accused offenders will re-offend while on pre-trial release:
58 percent of individuals sentenced to community supervision (through either conditional sentences or probation) had at least one prior conviction for a violent offence. 68 percent of those given custodial sentences were similarly repeat offenders. In fact, 59 percent of offenders serving custodial sentences had previously been convicted at least 10 times.
Also, in the three years following a term of community supervision, 15.6 percent of offenders were convicted for new violent crimes. For offenders coming out of custodial sentences, that rate was 30.2 percent.
In other words:
- Many – if not most – people charged with serious crimes turn out to be guilty
- It’s relatively rare for violent criminals to offend just once.
Together, those two conclusions suggest that public safety would be best served by immediately incarcerating all people charged with violent offences and keeping them “inside” either until they’re declared innocent or their sentences end. That, however, would be impossible. For one thing, we just don’t have space in our prisons to handle the load (or the money to fund it). And it would also often trample on the legitimate civil rights of accused individuals.
This is a serious problem without any obvious pull-the-trigger-and-you’re-
- Implement improved risk assessment and predictive analytics tools to evaluate the likelihood of re-offending.
- Improve the reliability of non-custodial measures such as electronic monitoring and house arrest that incorporate real-time tracking and immediate intervention capabilities
- Improve parole and probation systems to ensure effective monitoring and support for offenders released into the community. (Warning: expensive!)
- Optimize data analytics to identify trends, allocate resources efficiently, and measure the effectiveness of various interventions.
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Quick Hit:
After years of denial and political cover-ups, the UK government has formally acknowledged a disturbing link between Pakistani-heritage men and child grooming gangs. A scathing new review has prompted Prime Minister Keir Starmer to reverse course and launch a full national inquiry into the widespread abuse.
Key Details:
- The Casey Review found “clear evidence” of Pakistani men’s overrepresentation in grooming gangs and accused authorities of ignoring the abuse to avoid accusations of racism.
- Home Secretary Yvette Cooper confirmed over 800 historic child sex abuse cases will be reopened and prosecuted where possible.
- The Labour Party and Prime Minister Starmer were previously opposed to a national inquiry, with critics calling this reversal a politically motivated “smokescreen.”
Diving Deeper:
The British government has finally acknowledged a link between Pakistani-heritage men and the grooming gang epidemic that has plagued communities across England for decades. The admission comes following the release of a damning public review led by Baroness Louise Casey, which uncovered years of institutional failure, racial sensitivity, and political cowardice.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper presented the findings in Parliament, confirming that the Casey Review had “identified clear evidence of over-representation among suspects of Asian and Pakistani-heritage men.” She condemned the systematic rape of vulnerable girls—some as young as 10—and the authorities’ “unforgivable” failure to act.
“The sexual exploitation of children by grooming gangs is one of the most horrific crimes,” Cooper said, noting that too many warnings had been ignored over the last 15 years. She announced that the government would adopt all of Baroness Casey’s recommendations and reopen more than 800 historic cases.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who previously dismissed calls for a national inquiry as “far-right misinformation,” abruptly changed course over the weekend and agreed to a full inquiry with legal authority to compel testimony. This reversal followed mounting pressure from campaigners like Dame Jasvinder Sanghera, Elon Musk, and Reform UK’s Nigel Farage.
Labour MP Sarah Champion, once ousted for raising alarms about Pakistani grooming gangs in her Rotherham constituency, welcomed the inquiry. “There’s a real sense justice has not been handed out fairly,” she said, accusing officials of failing victims for fear of “causing offense.”
The Casey review also pointed to illegal immigration as a contributing factor and called for mandatory ethnicity data collection in child exploitation cases. Critics argue that authorities in Labour-run areas turned a blind eye to the abuse—some allegedly in exchange for votes—treating white working-class girls as expendable while shielding perpetrators.
Former detective and grooming whistleblower Maggie Oliver expressed skepticism, warning that unless the inquiry is led by Baroness Casey, it risks becoming another whitewash. “This is about gross criminal neglect at the top of policing, at the top of government, at the top of social services,” Oliver said.
While the inquiry marks a long-overdue step toward accountability, some warn it may be politically perilous for Starmer. As former head of the Crown Prosecution Service, he held a central role when many of these abuses first surfaced. And with many of the cover-ups tied to Labour councils, the fallout could deepen public distrust in the party.
MxM News
Quick Hit:
Vance Luther Boelter, accused of killing former Minnesota State House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, was captured Sunday after leading law enforcement on a 48-hour manhunt.
Key Details:
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Boelter allegedly began his rampage around 2 a.m. Saturday at Sen. Hoffman’s Champlin home, shooting both the senator and his wife, Yvette. The couple survived after emergency surgery.
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He then traveled to Rep. Melissa Hortman’s Brooklyn Park home, where she was pronounced dead at the scene and her husband died shortly afterward at a hospital.
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The suspect reportedly sent a farewell message to friends before fleeing and was later arrested in a Sibley County field Sunday night.
Sources provided this photo of Boelter from the scene after his arrest. pic.twitter.com/q4F9uPkm53
— Liz Collin (@lizcollin) June 16, 2025
Diving Deeper:
Vance Luther Boelter, the man accused of carrying out a targeted shooting of Democrat lawmakers in Minnesota, was taken into custody Sunday night following a 48-hour manhunt that spanned multiple counties. According to a report from Alpha News, Boelter was arrested in a field in rural Sibley County after evading police for more than a day following the deadly shootings.
Boelter, 57, previously served as an appointee under Gov. Tim Walz and is accused of murdering former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and injuring State Senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette. Authorities say Boelter disguised himself as a police officer—complete with a uniform, ballistic vest, and Halloween mask—before launching the coordinated attacks early Saturday morning.
The violence began just after 2 a.m. when Boelter allegedly entered the Hoffman residence in Champlin and opened fire. Both the senator and his wife were struck multiple times. Their daughter, Hope, was reportedly shielded from the gunfire by her mother. The couple’s nephew confirmed that both John and Yvette Hoffman underwent surgery and were listed in stable condition by Sunday.
From there, Boelter allegedly drove to Brooklyn Park and carried out a second attack at the home of Speaker Emerita Hortman. The 55-year-old lawmaker was found dead inside the home, while her husband was transported to a hospital where he later succumbed to his injuries.
Brooklyn Park police officers, alerted by the earlier incident, arrived as Boelter was leaving the Hortman residence. A standoff ensued, with officers briefly cornering the suspect inside the house and opening fire, though Boelter managed to flee.
Boelter reportedly sent a chilling text message to close friends. “David and Ron, I love you guys. I made some choices, and you guys don’t know anything about this, but I’m going to be gone for a while,” he wrote. “May be dead shortly, so I just want to let you know I love you guys both and I wish it hadn’t gone this way.”
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