Canadian Energy Centre
Completing Trans Mountain, Indigenous LNG: What to watch in Canadian energy in 2024
Workers lay pipe during construction of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion on farmland in Abbotsford, B.C., on May 3, 2023. CP Images photo
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Deborah JaremkoActivity promises to highlight Canada’s position as a world supplier of choice
It’s going to be a big year for Canadian energy, with major milestones anticipated that will transform Canada from a supplier with a single customer (the United States) to a global player.
Global demand for oil and gas is expected to stay strong in the decades ahead as the world works to reduce emissions, still supplying nearly half of energy needs in 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.
Activity in 2024 promises to highlight Canada’s position as a supplier of choice with a leading approach to reducing emissions and engaging Indigenous communities.
Here are five things to watch.
5. Start-Up Activities for LNG Canada
Construction of the LNG Canada export terminal is now more than 90 per cent complete. Photo courtesy LNG Canada
Against the backdrop of surging liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand – Asia’s consumption hit a record 26.6 million tonnes in December – Canada’s first LNG export terminal is preparing for start-up.
LNG Canada will have among the world’s lowest emissions for LNG supply, at 0.15 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per tonne of LNG, less than half the global average.
This year, the terminal at Kitimat, B.C. will test and fine-tune equipment and the process of producing LNG will begin, the company says.
The start-up program will take more than one year to complete.
Moving into the final stages at LNG Canada follows the recent completion of the Coastal GasLink Pipeline, connecting natural gas supply from northeast B.C.
4. Progress Toward Oil Sands Net Zero
The Pathways Alliance has extensive work underway on the environmental program for its proposed CCS project, involving 135 experts ranging from aquatic and wildlife biologists to archeologists and paleontologists who have spent more than 1,600 hours in the field working to minimize environmental disturbance. Photo courtesy Pathways Alliance
Major regulatory applications are expected in 2024 for one of the world’s largest proposed carbon capture and storage (CCS) networks, located in Canada’s oil sands.
The project would connect CO2 captured at an initial 14 oil sands facilities by pipeline to a shared hub for storage deep underground.
It is the foundation of the plan by the Pathways Alliance – companies representing 95 per cent of oil sands production – to reduce emissions from operations by nearly one third by 2030 on the way to net zero by 2050.
Pathways has said that after regulatory approvals are complete, CO2 injection and storage could begin by late 2026.
3. Growth in Indigenous Ownership
Eva Clayton, back left, President of the Nisga’a Lisims Government (joint venture owner of the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project), Crystal Smith, back right, Haisla Nation Chief Councillor (joint venture owner of proposed Cedar LNG project), and Karen Ogen, front right, CEO of the First Nations LNG Alliance pose for a photograph on the HaiSea Wamis zero-emission tugboat outside the LNG2023 conference, in Vancouver, B.C., Monday, July 10, 2023. CP Images photo
The rising tide of Indigenous ownership in Canadian energy is likely to continue growing in 2024.
From LNG terminals to oil and gas pipelines, natural gas-fired power plants and CCS projects to reduce emissions, more Indigenous communities are taking on a leadership role.
Since 2022, more than 75 First Nations and Métis communities in Alberta and British Columbia have agreed to ownership stakes in energy projects including the Coastal GasLink pipeline and major oil sands transportation networks.
Indigenous loan guarantee programs like those offered by the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) are helping communities invest.
So far, the AIOC has underwritten more than $500 million in loan guarantees. This year it has $3 billion of support available, up from $2 billion in 2023.
Details of a proposed national loan guarantee program to help facilitate Indigenous equity ownership in major resource projects are also expected in the federal budget this spring.
2. Green Light for Cedar LNG
Rendering courtesy Cedar LNG
Owners of the world’s first Indigenous-led LNG project – a floating terminal at Kitimat, B.C. –plan to make the final decision to proceed within the next three months.
Cedar LNG, owned jointly by the Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline Corporation, would have capacity to export three million tonnes of LNG per year, primarily to Asian markets.
With emissions intensity of 0.08 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per tonne of LNG, it would be one of the lowest carbon footprint LNG projects in the world.
In early January, the partners reached the critical milestone of selecting the primary contractors to engineer, build and deliver the floating LNG unit.
A final investment decision is now expected in the first quarter of 2024.
1. Completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion
Worker at Trans Mountain’s Edmonton terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation
After more than 12 years in the making, Canada’s first large-scale access to growing global oil markets is now weeks away from completion.
The existing Trans Mountain pipeline system from Edmonton, Alberta to Burnaby, B.C. runs consistently at maximum capacity with producers seeking more export space than is available.
The expansion will increase service by about 600,000 barrels per day, bringing more Canadian oil to customers around the world, primarily on the U.S. west coast and Asia.
After the recent resolution of a regulatory delay, Trans Mountain can now proceed with the last two per cent of construction.
The company anticipates oil will flow on the expanded line before the end of March.
Canadian Energy Centre
Cross-Canada economic benefits of the proposed Northern Gateway Pipeline project
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Billions in government revenue and thousands of jobs across provinces
Announced in 2006, the Northern Gateway project would have built twin pipelines between Bruderheim, Alta. and a marine terminal at Kitimat, B.C.
One pipeline would export 525,000 barrels per day of heavy oil from Alberta to tidewater markets. The other would import 193,000 barrels per day of condensate to Alberta to dilute heavy oil for pipeline transportation.
The project would have generated significant economic benefits across Canada.
The following projections are drawn from the report Public Interest Benefits of the Northern Gateway Project (Wright Mansell Research Ltd., July 2012), which was submitted as reply evidence during the regulatory process.
Financial figures have been adjusted to 2025 dollars using the Bank of Canada’s Inflation Calculator, with $1.00 in 2012 equivalent to $1.34 in 2025.
Total Government Revenue by Region
Between 2019 and 2048, a period encompassing both construction and operations, the Northern Gateway project was projected to generate the following total government revenues by region (direct, indirect and induced):
British Columbia
- Provincial government revenue: $11.5 billion
- Federal government revenue: $8.9 billion
- Total: $20.4 billion
Alberta
- Provincial government revenue: $49.4 billion
- Federal government revenue: $41.5 billion
- Total: $90.9 billion
Ontario
- Provincial government revenue: $1.7 billion
- Federal government revenue: $2.7 billion
- Total: $4.4 billion
Quebec
- Provincial government revenue: $746 million
- Federal government revenue: $541 million
- Total: $1.29 billion
Saskatchewan
- Provincial government revenue: $6.9 billion
- Federal government revenue: $4.4 billion
- Total: $11.3 billion
Other
- Provincial government revenue: $1.9 billion
- Federal government revenue: $1.4 billion
- Total: $3.3 billion
Canada
- Provincial government revenue: $72.1 billion
- Federal government revenue: $59.4 billion
- Total: $131.7 billion
Annual Government Revenue by Region
Over the period 2019 and 2048, the Northern Gateway project was projected to generate the following annual government revenues by region (direct, indirect and induced):
British Columbia
- Provincial government revenue: $340 million
- Federal government revenue: $261 million
- Total: $601 million per year
Alberta
- Provincial government revenue: $1.5 billion
- Federal government revenue: $1.2 billion
- Total: $2.7 billion per year
Ontario
- Provincial government revenue: $51 million
- Federal government revenue: $79 million
- Total: $130 million per year
Quebec
- Provincial government revenue: $21 million
- Federal government revenue: $16 million
- Total: $37 million per year
Saskatchewan
- Provincial government revenue: $204 million
- Federal government revenue: $129 million
- Total: $333 million per year
Other
- Provincial government revenue: $58 million
- Federal government revenue: $40 million
- Total: $98 million per year
Canada
- Provincial government revenue: $2.1 billion
- Federal government revenue: $1.7 billion
- Total: $3.8 billion per year
Employment by Region
Over the period 2019 to 2048, the Northern Gateway Pipeline was projected to generate the following direct, indirect and induced full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs by region:
British Columbia
- Annual average: 7,736
- Total over the period: 224,344
Alberta
- Annual average: 11,798
- Total over the period: 342,142
Ontario
- Annual average: 3,061
- Total over the period: 88,769
Quebec
- Annual average: 1,003
- Total over the period: 29,087
Saskatchewan
- Annual average: 2,127
- Total over the period: 61,683
Other
- Annual average: 953
- Total over the period: 27,637
Canada
- Annual average: 26,678
- Total over the period: 773,662
Chief David Jimmie is president of Stonlasec8 and Chief of Squiala First Nation in B.C. He also chairs the Western Indigenous Pipeline Group. Photo courtesy Western Indigenous Pipeline Group
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Stonlasec8 agreement is Canada’s first federal Indigenous loan guarantee
The first federally backed Indigenous loan guarantee paves the way for increased prosperity for 36 First Nations communities in British Columbia.
In May, Canada Development Investment Corporation (CDEV) announced a $400 million backstop for the consortium to jointly purchase 12.5 per cent ownership of Enbridge’s Westcoast natural gas pipeline system for $712 million.
In the works for two years, the deal redefines long-standing relationships around a pipeline that has been in operation for generations.
“For 65 years, there’s never been an opportunity or a conversation about participating in an asset that’s come through the territory,” said Chief David Jimmie of the Squiala First Nation near Vancouver, B.C.
“We now have an opportunity to have our Nation’s voices heard directly when we have concerns and our partners are willing to listen.”
Jimmie chairs the Stonlasec8 Indigenous Alliance, which represents the communities buying into the Enbridge system.
The name Stonlasec8 reflects the different regions represented in the agreement, he said.
The Westcoast pipeline stretches more than 2,900 kilometres from northeast B.C. near the Alberta border to the Canada-U.S. border near Bellingham, Wash., running through the middle of the province.
It delivers up to 3.6 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas throughout B.C. and the Lower Mainland, Alberta and the U.S. Pacific Northwest.
“While we see the benefits back to communities, we are still reminded of our responsibility to the land, air and water so it is important to think of reinvestment opportunities in alternative energy sources and how we can offset the carbon footprint,” Jimmie said.
He also chairs the Western Indigenous Pipeline Group (WIPG), a coalition of First Nations communities working in partnership with Pembina Pipeline to secure an ownership stake in the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system.
There is overlap between the communities in the two groups, he said.
CDEV vice-president Sébastien Labelle said provincial models such as the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) and Ontario’s Indigenous Opportunities Financing Program helped bring the federal government’s version of the loan guarantee to life.
“It’s not a new idea. Alberta started it before us, and Ontario,” Labelle said.
“We hired some of the same advisors AIOC hired because we want to make sure we are aligned with the market. We didn’t want to start something completely new.”
Broadly, Jimmie said the Stonlasec8 agreement will provide sustained funding for investments like housing, infrastructure, environmental stewardship and cultural preservation. But it’s up to the individual communities how to spend the ongoing proceeds.
The long-term cash injections from owning equity stakes of major projects can provide benefits that traditional funding agreements with the federal government do not, he said.
Labelle said the goal is to ensure Indigenous communities benefit from projects on their traditional territories.
“There’s a lot of intangible, indirect things that I think are hugely important from an economic perspective,” he said.
“You are improving the relationship with pipeline companies, you are improving social license to do projects like this.”
Jimmie stressed the impact the collaborative atmosphere of the negotiations had on the success of the Stonlasec8 agreement.
“It takes true collaboration to reach a successful partnership, which doesn’t always happen. And from the Nation representation, the sophistication of the group was one of the best I’ve ever worked with.”
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