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Trudeau’s Alternative Universe: Claiming the Carbon Tax is Not Inflationary Defies Belief

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From EnergyNow.ca

By Jim Warren

Back in March 2019, the average price for a pound of lean ground beef at five major chain grocery outlets in Regina was $4.71. In September 2024 lean ground at the five big chain outlets averaged $7.90 — a 68% increase over the past five years…  these price increases are a far cry from the official statistic for accumulated inflation of 21% over the same period.

Kudos to the Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA). They have provided us with some valuable insight into the inflationary effects of Canada’s carbon tax.

This past August, the CTA published a brief to the federal government which among other things called for a moratorium on the carbon tax for diesel fuel.

In commenting on the brief, CTA president Stephen Laskowski said, “The carbon tax on diesel fuel is currently having zero impact on the environment and is only serving to needlessly drive up costs for every good purchased by Canadian families and businesses. The carbon tax needs to be repealed from diesel fuel until viable propulsion alternatives are available for the industry and the Canadian supply chain to choose from.”

The CTA estimates that as of 2024 the carbon tax on diesel adds an extra cost for long-haul truck operators of $15,000 to $20,000 or around 6% of per truck in annual operating costs. The brief to government claims a small trucking business with five trucks, “is seeing between $75,000 and $100,000 in extra costs due to the carbon tax.”

Obviously, truckers striving to remain solvent will be doing their utmost to pass carbon tax costs on to their customers. If the cost of the tax can’t be recouped by some trucking companies, we can bet there will be fewer of them operating over the coming years. As Laskowksi said, the carbon tax increased the cost of virtually every product transported by truck—which means  pretty well every physical good consumers purchase.

In light of the political beating the Liberals have been taking over the carbon tax, the Trudeau government has taken a tiny feeble step toward relieving the pressure on businesses. In October 2024 federal finance minister Chrystia Freeland announced the government’s intention to provide carbon tax rebates to businesses with fewer than 500 employees. That means many of Canada’s trucking companies will be eligible to recoup some of the carbon tax they have been paying since fiscal 2019-2020. Freeland says the cheques will be in the mail this December.

It sounds okay until you look at the fine print.

The payments will not reflect the amount of fuel a business uses or how much carbon tax it has paid over the past five years. The rebates will be based on the number of people a company employs and will be paid only in provinces where the federal fuel charge applies. An accounting business with 10 employees will receive the same carbon tax rebate as a small trucking business with 10 employees. A CBC news report pulled the following example from Freeland’s press release, “A business in Ontario with 10 employees can expect to receive $4,010…”

Freeland boasted, “These are real, significant sums of money. They’re going to make a big difference to Canadian small business.”

Freeland’s statement is patently false when it comes to trucking companies.

Let’s say that the 10 employee business is a long-haul trucking company based in Ontario. After paying the carbon tax on five or more trucks for five years, the business would receive a paltry $4,010 rebate. That light dusting of sugar won’t make the carbon tax any more palatable to the trucking industry. According to the CTA’s estimates, if the 10 employee long-haul trucking firm had just five trucks the carbon tax will have cost it approximately $400,000 in operating costs over the past five years.

Carbon tax costs are not the only inflation related frustration affecting Canadians. The way the federal government and its friends in the media describe inflation presents people with a warped view of what is happening to the cost of living. Media reports on inflation rarely reflect the lived experience of people trying to pay the mortgage, feed their families and drive to work.

Governments, and their media apologists, in both Canada and the US have been taking victory laps over the past year because the rate of inflation has decreased. It’s as though people have nothing to worry about because the cost of living this year isn’t increasing as fast as it was last year. Changes in the inflation rate may be important for statistical purposes but they don’t reflect reality for people who have been coping with increases in inflation over several years. Most people measure the difficulties caused by inflation by comparing how much more things cost today than they did three to five years ago. The figure regular civilians, as opposed to statisticians, use to assess increases in the cost of living is accumulated inflation. However, we still need to be cautious about the accumulated inflation rate that we get when using government data.

If we calculate the rate of accumulated inflation based on official annualized inflation rates from 2019 up to the midpoint of 2024. The accumulated increase over that five year period is around 21%. And, it is true that this number better reflects people’s perception of inflation than a statistical comparison indicating the rate of inflation fell from 3.9 % in 2023 to 2.61% by the mid-point of 2024. The problem is the 21% number still does not accurately reflect increases in the cost of many necessary goods and services that are impacting households. This is why according to political polls voters in Canada and the US aren’t buying government propaganda when it comes to inflation.

The economy, and by extension, the high cost of living was a major issue in the recent US federal election campaign. The Democrats did not do themselves any favours claiming Bidenomics had wrestled inflation to the ground simply because it wasn’t increasing as fast as it was a year ago.  A large number of voters in the US embraced former US president Lyndon Johnson’s maxim, “Don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.”

But wait, it gets worse. The basket of goods and services the Canadian government uses to calculate the cost of living index and the inflation rate fails to identify high increases in the prices for specific household essentials including many grocery staples. Similarly, official calculations for statistically weighted national average consumption of various products used to calculate the Consumer Price Index are skewed in favour of big urban centres. Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver are over represented. There is no way that the average annual consumption of gasoline for a household in downtown Montreal comes anywhere close to the amount used in most of Canada where public transit is scarce and distances are great. The result is the official accumulated inflation rate fails to show what many people are experiencing in most regions of the country.

Here is a good example of how published statistics don’t reflect the inflation shock that consumers experience at the grocery store.  Back in March 2019, the average price for a pound of lean ground beef at five major chain grocery outlets in Regina was $4.71. In September 2024 lean ground at the five big chain outlets averaged $7.90 — a 68% increase over the past five years. The price of rib eye steak increased by even more. Rib eyes averaged $14.91 per pound at the five stores in Regina in March 2019. This September, the average price for rib eye steak was $29.40 – a 97% increase over five years. Obviously, these price increases are a far cry from the official statistic for accumulated inflation of 21% over the same period. (FYI: the data presented here was derived from  Beef Business magazine published by the Saskatchewan Stock Growers Association. Each bimonthly edition of Beef Business features a retail beef price check)

Assuming we can find similar rates of accumulated inflation for other staples like dairy products and fresh vegetables it’s no wonder smart shoppers have been incensed over what’s going on with grocery prices and the cost of living (not to mention price increases for fuel, rents house prices and mortgage interest). Consumers have discovered today’s prices of $6.50 for a four litre jug of milk and $7.00 for a pound of butter aren’t going to be reduced simply because the rate of inflation has decreased form 3.69% to 2.61% over the past year. Using history as our guide, with the exception of rare periods of deflation such as the depression of the 1930s, it is unlikely we’ll see the price increases of the past few years come down other than for sales or loss leader strategies. And, while a 72 cent dollar might boost sales for some of our exports, it will add more than 25% to the cost of imported fruit and vegetables this winter,

Furthermore, the impacts of inflation are being more severely felt by Canadians today than they would have been a decade ago. This is because our per capita national income (using GDP as a proxy for national income) has been shrinking since 2014. That was the year oil prices fell into an eight year depression and the last full year before Justin Trudeau became Prime minister.

According to a 2024 Fraser Institute Bulletin authored by Alex Whelan, Milagros Placios and Lawrence Shembri, “Canadians have been getting poorer relative to residents of other countries in the OECD [a club of mostly rich countries]. From 2002 to 2014, Canadian income growth, as measured by GDP per capita, roughly kept pace with the rest of the OECD. From 2014 to 2022, however, Canada’s position declined sharply, ranking third lowest among 30 countries for average growth over the period.”

Canada’s per capita GDP/national income for 2024 is projected to be $54,866.05. According Whelan, Placios and Shembri, that is lower than per capita national income in the US, UK, New Zealand and Austrailia.

Only one US state, Mississippi, the poorest state in the union, has a per capita GDP/national income less than Canada’s. Mississippi’s total is $53,061. Other states considered poor by US standards such as Alabama and Arkansas have higher per capita GDPs than Canada. On average, Canadians have increasingly less money with which to buy more expensive goods and services.

The challenges Canadians have faced as a result of the high cost of living have coincided with the eight plus years that Justin Trudeau has been prime minister. The decline in per capita national income also occurred under Trudeau’s watch—in conjunction with Liberal policies designed to stifle growth in Canada’s petroleum and natural gas industries. What did the Trudeau Liberals think would happen to growth in per capita national income after they handcuffed our single most important export industry?

In the final analysis it’s a tossup. Do we have an inflation problem or is inflation just a symptom of our Trudeau problem?

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U.S. Supreme Court frosty on Trump’s tariff power as world watches

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From The Center Square

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The U.S. Supreme Court gave President Donald Trump’s tariff authority a chilly reception on Wednesday, with his economic agenda hanging in the balance and businesses and consumers watching for higher prices.

After the president spent months talking about how much money his tariffs would generate, Trump’s Solicitor General D. John Sauer told the nation’s highest court Wednesday that the import duties are solely focused on regulation, not raising revenue.

Even the conservative wing of the Supreme Court was skeptical.

“The vehicle is imposition of taxes on Americans. That has always been the core power of Congress,” Chief Justice John Roberts said.

Robert’s remark came early in the hearing, which was slated for 80 minutes, but ran almost three hours.

“The justification is being used for the power to impose tariffs on any product, from any country, for any amount, for any length of time,” Roberts said. “I’m not suggesting it’s not there, but it does seem like that’s major authority.”

Twelve states, five small businesses and two Illinois-based toymakers have challenged Trump’s authority to impose tariffs under a 1977 law without Congressional approval. That law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, doesn’t mention the word “tariff” and has never been used to impose tariffs. Trump’s legal team argues that the law is a clear delegation of emergency power, granting the president broad authority to act in times of crisis.

Phillip Magness, a senior fellow at the Independent Institute, said the justices showed they had reservations about Trump’s claimed power under the law, frequently called IEEPA.

“It’s always hard to predict from questions, but it was clear to me that several of the justices were not buying the arguments of Trump’s attorney John Sauer – particularly his claim that tariffs are regulations and not taxes,” he told The Center Square.

Justices also shot difficult questions to the attorneys representing the states and small businesses that are challenging the tariffs.

Justice Samuel Alito asked Neal Katyal, the attorney representing the small businesses, if Congress had given the president power to regulate admission to a national park, would that also grant the president the power to charge an entrance fee. Katyal said the president could charge an entrance fee so long as the fee was not intended to raise revenue. Alito also had sharp questions for Katyal on other issues.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett posed a stickier question to Katyal and Oregon Solicitor General Ben Gutman, who is representing the 12 states that challenged Trump’s tariff authority. Barrett asked if the International Emergency Economic Powers Act gives the president the power to block all imports, why would it not grant the seemingly lesser authority of allowing the president to impose a tariff on all imports. Several other justices piled on with variations of this questions, including Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Kavanaugh asked Gutman if that would leave a “doughnut hole,” as the government put it. Gutman said it was about protecting taxpayers.

“It’s not a doughnut hole, it’s a different type of pastry,” he replied, saying that when the government can reach into the pocketbooks of the people, the stakes are higher, which is why the Constitution gave taxation power to Congress and not the president.

Cato Legal Fellow Brent Skorup said “most justices appeared attentive to the risks of deferring to a president’s interpretation of an ambiguous statute and the executive branch, ‘discovering’ new powers in old statutes.”

“The government’s reading of IEEPA not only stretches the text beyond recognition, but it also threatens the separation-of-powers principles central to our constitutional design,” he said.

Magness said he sees a path for Trump to win, but not much of one.

“The Trump administration went all-in on its claim that tariffs are not taxes, but rather regulations. I believe that they did so because they see this as the only path to victory since the court has historically given more leeway to presidents in the foreign policy arena,” he told The Center Square. “I think the administration has a difficult path ahead, given how poorly their argument about tariffs not being a tax was received. Their best remaining argument is to hope that some justices grant them expansive foreign policy leeway in spite of the clear domestic tax policy implications. That path appears to have narrowed quite a bit in today’s hearing.”

Trump has said the future of America is on the line.

“Tomorrow’s United States Supreme Court case is, literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country,” Trump said Tuesday afternoon in a social media post. “With a Victory, we have tremendous, but fair, Financial and National Security. Without it, we are virtually defenseless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us.”

For Alex Jacobsen, a second-generation family business owner in Nashville, Tenn., who makes the speakers used to record Michael Jackson’s “Thriller” album, the problem has never been with the tariffs.

“It’s how they’re implemented, without any due process, without any Congress or input from the public,” he told The Center Square ahead of arguments.

The court is expected to hand down a decision by the end of June if not sooner.

Last week, the U.S. Senate narrowly voted to end the national emergency Trump used to impose global tariffs. Four Republicans joined Democrats in the effort, which is largely symbolic because the U.S. House has agreed not to take up the issue until March.

In August, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit affirmed a previous lower court ruling saying Trump did not have the authority, but said Trump’s tariffs could remain in place while the administration appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court. In the 7-4 decision, the majority of the Federal Circuit said that tariff authority rests with Congress.

An August report, from the Congressional Budget Office, estimated tariffs could bring in $4 trillion over the next decade. That CBO report came with caveats and noted that tariffs will raise consumer prices and reduce the purchasing power of U.S. families.

Trump has said he wants to use tariffs to restore manufacturing jobs lost to lower-wage countries in decades past, shift the tax burden away from U.S. families and pay down the national debt. Economists, businesses and some public companies have warned that tariffs will raise prices on a wide range of consumer products.

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Carney’s budget spares tax status of Canadian churches, pro-life groups after backlash

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From LifeSiteNews

By Clare Marie Merkowsky

Canadian pro-life charities and churches retain their tax-exempt status in the 2025-26 budget, a reversal attributed to public and political opposition to earlier proposals.

Canadian pro-life charities and churches will not lose their tax exemption under the Liberal Party’s newly presented fall budget despite earlier threats.

On November 4, Liberal Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presented the Canadian federal budget for Fiscal Year 2025-26 in the House of Commons that included no mention of stripping pro-life organizations and churches of their tax exemption.

“Campaign Life Coalition is breathing a sigh of relief that churches and pro-life organizations were not stripped of their charitable status in the (Mark) Carney Liberal budget released today,” Campaign Life Coalition (CLC) communications director Pete Baklinski said in a statement sent to LifeSiteNews.

As LifeSiteNews previously reported, before last Christmas, a proposal by the all-party Finance Committee suggested legislation that could strip pro-life pregnancy centers and religious groups of their charitable status.

The legislation would amend the Income Tax Act and Income Tax. Section 429 of the proposed legislation recommends the government “no longer provide charitable status to anti-abortion organizations.”

The bill, according to the finance department, would require “registered charities that provide services, advice, or information in respect of the prevention, preservation, or termination of pregnancy (i.e., destroying the unborn)” to disclose that they “do not provide specific services, including abortions or birth control.”

Similarly, Recommendation 430 aims to “amend the Income Tax Act to provide a definition of a charity which would remove the privileged status of ‘advancement of religion’ as a charitable purpose.”

Canadians quickly responded to the recommendations, warning that it would mean the end of many pro-life organizations and the vital work that they do to help mothers in need.

Likewise, Conservative MPs and clergy alike condemned the suggestion to tax churches that provide essential services to Canadians.

“This is a victory for religious freedom and for the Canadian values of helping the vulnerable, offering a compassionate hand, and being present to those in crisis,” he declared.

“The Liberal government was right to listen to ordinary citizens and faith leaders and ultimately reject these outrageous recommendations,” Gunnarson continued. “Thanks be to God, Canada lives to see another day without a dark cloud of persecution hanging over religious and pro-life organizations.”

 

“This victory belongs to the concerned citizens across Canada who took the time to sign a petition or write a letter to their MP or the Finance Minister,” he said. “This proves that when enough people speak out, good things can happen.”

Currently, the budget is under Parliamentary review, as Liberals lack sufficient votes to pass the legislation. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has declared that his party will not support the budget. The Bloc Québécois have also pledged opposition and the New Democratic Party (NDP) is considering supporting the budget.

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