Capital Flight Signals No Confidence In Carney’s Agenda

From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

Between bad trade calls and looming deficits, Canada is driving money out just when it needs it most

Canadians voted for relative continuity in April, but investors voted with their wallets, moving $124 billion out of the country.

According to the National Bank, Canadian investors purchased approximately $124 billion in American securities between February and July of this year. At the same time, foreign investment in Canada dropped sharply, leaving the country with a serious hole in its capital base.

As Warren Lovely of National Bank put it, “with non-resident investors aloof and Canadians adding foreign assets, the country has suffered a major capital drain”—one he called “unprecedented.”

Why is this happening?

One reason is trade. Canada adopted one of the most aggressive responses to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau imposed retaliatory tariffs on the United States and escalated tensions further by targeting goods covered under the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), something even the Trump administration avoided.

The result was punishing. Washington slapped a 35 per cent tariff on non-CUSMA Canadian goods, far higher than the 25 per cent rate applied to Mexico. That made Canadian exports less competitive and unattractive to U.S. consumers. The effects rippled through industries like autos, agriculture and steel, sectors that rely heavily on access to U.S. markets. Canadian producers suddenly found themselves priced out, and investors took note.

Recognizing the damage, Prime Minister Mark Carney rolled back all retaliatory tariffs on CUSMA-covered goods this summer in hopes of cooling tensions. Yet the 35 per cent tariff on non-CUSMA Canadian exports remains, among the highest the U.S. applies to any trading partner.

Investors saw the writing on the wall. They understood Trudeau’s strategy had soured relations with Trump and that, given Canada’s reliance on U.S. trade, the United States would inevitably come out on top. Parking capital in U.S. securities looked far safer than betting on Canada’s economy under a government playing a weak hand.

The trade story alone explains much of the exodus, but fiscal policy is another concern. Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer Jason Jacques recently called Ottawa’s approach “stupefying” and warned that Canada risks a 1990s-style fiscal crisis if spending isn’t brought under control. During the 1990s, ballooning deficits forced deep program cuts and painful tax hikes. Interest rates soared, Canada’s debt was downgraded and Ottawa nearly lost control of its finances. Investors are seeing warning signs that history could repeat itself.

After months of delay, Canadians finally saw a federal budget on Nov. 4. Jacques had already projected a deficit of $68.5 billion when he warned the outlook was “unsustainable.” National Bank now suggests the shortfall could exceed $100 billion. And that doesn’t include Carney’s campaign promises, such as higher defence spending, which could add tens of billions more.

Deficits of that scale matter. They can drive up borrowing costs, leave less room for social spending and undermine confidence in the country’s long-term fiscal stability. For investors managing pensions, RRSPs or business portfolios, Canada’s balance sheet now looks shaky compared to a U.S. economy offering both scale and relative stability.

Add in high taxes, heavy regulation and interprovincial trade barriers, and the picture grows bleaker. Despite decades of promises, barriers between provinces still make it difficult for Canadian businesses to trade freely within their own country. From differing trucking regulations to restrictions on alcohol distribution, these long-standing inefficiencies eat away at productivity. When combined with federal tax and regulatory burdens, the environment for growth becomes even more hostile.

The Carney government needs to take this unprecedented capital drain seriously. Investors are not acting on a whim. They are responding to structural problems—ill-advised trade actions, runaway federal spending and persistent barriers to growth—that Ottawa has yet to fix.

In the short term, that means striking a deal with Washington to lower tariffs and restore confidence that Canada can maintain stable access to U.S. markets. It also means resisting the urge to spend Canada into deeper deficits when warning lights are already flashing red. Over the long term, Ottawa must finally tackle high taxes, cut red tape and eliminate the bureaucratic obstacles that stand in the way of economic growth.

Capital has choices. Right now, it is voting with its feet, and with its dollars, and heading south. If Canada wants that capital to come home, the government will have to earn it back.

Jay Goldberg is a fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

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Budget 2025 continues to balloon spending and debt

Published on November 4, 2025

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By Franco Terrazzano

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is criticizing Prime Minister Mark Carney for ballooning spending and debt in Budget 2025.

“Budget 2025 shows the debt continues to spiral out of control because spending continues to spiral out of control,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Carney needs to reverse course to get debt and spending under control because every dollar Canadians pay in federal sales tax is already going to pay interest charges on the debt.

“Carney isn’t close to balancing anything when he’s borrowing tens of billions of dollars every year.”

The federal deficit will increase significantly this year to $78.3 billion. There is no plan to balance the budget and stop borrowing money. The federal debt will reach $1.35 trillion by the end of this year.

Debt interest charges will cost taxpayers $55.6 billion this year, which is more than the federal government will send to the provinces in health transfers ($54.7 billion) or collect through the GST ($54.4 billion).

Budget 2025 increases spending by $38 billion this year to $581 billion. Despite promises to control spending in future years, Budget 2025 projects that overall spending will continue to rise by billions every year.

“Canadians don’t need another plan to create a plan to meet about cutting spending, Canadians need real spending cuts now,” Terrazzano said. “The government always tells Canadians that it will go on a diet Monday, but Monday never comes.

“And the government isn’t really finding savings if it’s planning to keep increasing spending every year.”

Budget 2025 commits to “strengthening” the industrial carbon tax and “setting a multi-decade industrial carbon price trajectory that targets net zero by 2050.”

“Carney’s hidden carbon tax will make it harder for Canadian businesses to compete and will push Canadian entrepreneurs to set up shop south of the border,” Terrazzano said. “Carney should scrap all carbon taxes, cut spending and stop taking so much money from taxpayers.”

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Federal budget: Carney government posts largest deficit in Canadian history outside pandemic

Published on November 4, 2025

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Federal deficit projected to exceed $78 billion
This is Ottawa’s tenth consecutive unbalanced budget
Every newborn baby in Canada now enters the world with a debt of more than $33,000.

Repackaging record spending as “investments” while offering no credible path back to balance is the opposite of responsible fiscal stewardship, asserts the MEI in response to the tabling of the federal budget this afternoon.

“Canadians should find a deficit this large extremely troubling,” says Emmanuelle B. Faubert, economist at the MEI. “The attempt to disguise it under a new wave of so-called investments makes it even more concerning.

“It’s one thing to spend money you don’t have; it’s yet another to shirk responsibility for it.”

The Carney government is projecting a deficit of $78.3 billion for 2025-2026, up from $48.3 billion last year.

Interest payments are projected to rise to $55.6 billion this upcoming fiscal year, but servicing the debt will mount rapidly: to $76.1 billion by 2030, a 37 per cent spike.

Current debt charges cost taxpayers more than federal healthcare transfers to provinces, which amount to $54 billion annually.

This budget deficit would bring the national debt to $1.48 trillion, and mark the tenth consecutive year without a balanced federal budget. Every newborn baby in Canada now enters the world with a debt of more than $33,000.

Much of the new spending is categorized as capital as opposed to operational, which is a new reclassification scheme unveiled by the Carney government that does nothing to change the total debt. The government’s net debt is predicted to grow by another 21 per cent by 2030, to $1.79 trillion.

The Build Canada Homes program, for one, has an initial $13-billion price tag. The MEI studied a similar program launched in New Zealand, which accomplished just 3 per cent of its total objective.

The MEI warns that this marks a shift toward increased central planning, with Canada becoming an economy where politicians, instead of businesses and consumers, decide which industries succeed.

Overtures in the budget hint at a possible future walk-back of the emissions cap, which the think tank has strongly advocated for. In March, the PBO released a report estimating that the emissions cap would reduce our collective prosperity by $20.5 billion in 2032 and result in 40,300 fewer jobs than there would otherwise be.

A clearer path toward shrinking the federal bureaucracy has been laid out, with the government planning to eliminate 16,000 full-time positions, representing 4.5 per cent of the workforce as of March 2025.

Economist Emmanuelle B. Faubert would like the government to go further. While Ottawa plans to maintain the size of the federal bureaucracy at about 330,000 employees by 2028-29 through attrition, the MEI sees this as insufficient, and urged a more ambitious approach in its pre-budget submission.

The MEI recommended cutting the federal workforce by 17.4 per cent, mirroring the Chrétien-era reductions of the 1990s, which would eliminate roughly 64,000 positions and save taxpayers $10 billion annually.

The MEI welcomes the decision to expand capital cost allowances, letting businesses write off new machinery and equipment more quickly. This measure promotes investment and productivity by reducing the upfront cost of doing business.

“The government may try to rebrand its debt, but Canadians will still be the ones paying it off for decades,” says Ms. Faubert. “Carney calls it a generational budget, and he’s right, but only because future generations will be stuck footing the bill.”

* * *

The MEI is an independent public policy think tank with offices in Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary. Through its publications, media appearances, and advisory services to policymakers, the MEI stimulates public policy debate and reforms based on sound economics and entrepreneurship.