Alberta
Canadian Oil Sands Production Expected to Reach All-time Highs this Year Despite Lower Oil Prices
From Energy Now
S&P Global Commodity Insights has raised its 10-year production outlook for the Canadian oil sands. The latest forecast expects oil sands production to reach a record annual average production of 3.5 million b/d in 2025 (5% higher than 2024) and exceed 3.9 million b/d by 2030—half a million barrels per day higher than 2024. The 2030 projection is 100,000 barrels per day (or nearly 3%) higher than the previous outlook.
The new forecast, produced by the S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue, is the fourth consecutive upward revision to the annual outlook. Despite a lower oil price environment, the analysis attributes the increased projection to favorable economics, as producers continue to focus on maximizing existing assets through investments in optimization and efficiency.
While large up-front, out-of-pocket expenditures over multiple years are required to bring online new oil sands projects, once completed, projects enjoy relatively low breakeven prices.
S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that the 2025 half-cycle break-even for oil sands production ranged from US$18/b to US$45/b, on a WTI basis, with the overall average break-even being approximately US$27/b.*
“The increased trajectory for Canadian oil sands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers’ continued emphasis on optimization—and the favorable economics that underpin such operations,” said Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Analyst, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “More than 3.8 million barrels per day of existing installed capacity was brought online from 2001 and 2017. This large resource base provides ample room for producers to find debottlenecking opportunities, decrease downtime and increase throughput.”
The potential for additional upside exists given the nature of optimization projects, which often result from learning by doing or emerge organically, the analysis says.
“Many companies are likely to proceed with optimizations even in more challenging price environments because they often contribute to efficiency gains,” said Celina Hwang, Director, Crude Oil Markets, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “This dynamic adds to the resiliency of oil sands production and its ability to grow through periods of price volatility.”
The outlook continues to expect oil sands production to enter a plateau later this decade. However, this is also expected to occur at a higher level of production than previously estimated. The new forecast expects oil sands production to be 3.7 million b/d in 2035—100,000 b/d higher than the previous outlook.
Export capacity—already a concern in recent years—is a source of downside risk now that even more production growth is expected. Without further incremental pipeline capacity, export constraints have the potential to re-emerge as early as next year, the analysis says.
“While a lower price path in 2025 and the potential for pipeline export constraints are downside risks to this outlook, the oil sands have proven able to withstand extreme price volatility in the past,” said Hwang. “The low break-even costs for existing projects and producers’ ability to manage challenging situations in the past support the resilience of this outlook.”
* Half-cycle breakeven cost includes operating cost, the cost to purchase diluent (if needed), as well as an adjustment to enable a comparison to WTI—specifically, the cost of transport to Cushing, OK and quality differential between heavy and light oil.
About S&P Global Commodity Insights
At S&P Global Commodity Insights, our complete view of global energy and commodity markets enables our customers to make decisions with conviction and create long-term, sustainable value.
We’re a trusted connector that brings together thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators and we create solutions that lead to progress. Vital to navigating commodity markets, our coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, shipping and energy transition. Platts® products and services, including leading benchmark price assessments in the physical commodity markets, are offered through S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global Commodity Insights maintains clear structural and operational separation between its price assessment activities and the other activities carried out by S&P Global Commodity Insights and the other business divisions of S&P Global.
S&P Global Commodity Insights is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information visit https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en.
SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights
Alberta’s government is engaging with Albertans on increasing speed limits on rural highways.
Starting Nov. 7, Albertans can share their views on modernizing speed limits on divided highways through an online survey running until Dec. 12. The survey will ask how Albertans view raising the speed limit by 10 km/h on various highways from 110 km/h to 120 km/h.
“Alberta’s government is investigating how to safely increase speed limits on divided highways, and if Albertans support increasing speed limits. We are investing more than $1.5 billion this year alone to improve highway safety and upgrade infrastructure across the province. We want Albertans to be able to drive the speed limit that the highways are designed for. Modern vehicles combined with public awareness mean we can explore higher speed limits.”
The survey will provide Albertans with the opportunity to provide input on which highways they would prioritize having a speed limit increase, their views on restricting commercial trucks from using the far-left lane on highways with three or more lanes and any other feedback that would improve driving experiences on provincial highways.
Following a review of the survey results, Alberta’s government plans to conduct a mini-trial of a 120 km/h speed limit to assess the impacts of higher speed limits on divided highways. The trial will include strong monitoring to assess driving behaviour.
Alberta’s government reminds motorists to slow down and drive to the conditions. Speed limits are set for ideal conditions. When roads are wet, icy or when there is reduced visibility, motorists should slow down.
Quick facts
- Alberta’s provincial highway network includes more than 64,000 lane kilometres of highways, about 11,700 lane kilometres of which are divided.
- The posted speed limits of Alberta’s divided highways range from 100 to 110 km/h, although the posted speed limits on segments passing through cities, towns and First Nation lands can be as low as 50 km/h due to factors such as signalized intersections, pedestrians and local access.
Related information
- The survey is available online.
A new Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee has been struck to address classroom challenges.
Taking action on class size and complexity
Classrooms in Alberta continue to grow and are becoming increasingly complex, and immediate action is needed to address these issues in the public education system. To meet these issues head on, the Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee has been created. The cabinet committee will help guide government policy and deploy resources to deal with class sizes and classroom complexity.
“We are committed to providing world-class education, and we’re building schools and funding education at a rate unprecedented in this province. This committee will help us address the concerns of teachers, parents and students around class sizes and complexity.”
Throughout November, Alberta’s government will continue work with school boards to collect data on class sizes and classroom composition. The cabinet committee will use this data to direct resources to the classrooms that need it the most. Starting in January, this data will be made available and released annually.
The Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee will be co-chaired by the Premier of Alberta and the Minister of Education and Childcare. It will also include non-voting members representing school boards, administrators and a teacher representative of the ATA. The committee will also hear from school boards, academic experts, teachers, educational assistants, complex needs specialists and parents to inform its decisions and guide this vital work.
“We heard teacher concerns, and we are providing solutions. The Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee will help us take immediate action and ensure teachers and students are given the support they need to succeed.”
In June 2025, Alberta’s government established the Aggression and Complexity in Schools Action Team to provide advice on addressing classroom complexity. The report has been received and will be released soon. Over the coming months, the cabinet committee will start rolling out solutions informed by the action team’s recommendations. In addition, the committee will guide the creation of a new inclusive education policy framework.
“The work of this committee will support teachers in responding to the growing complexity in our classrooms. We will ensure that the voices of the contributors to the initial work guide
solutions that truly improve the educational experience for students and the educators who serve them.”
“I appreciate the government’s recognition of the impact of classroom complexity and their commitment to working collaboratively for improvement. Supporting teachers ultimately improves classroom conditions and student outcomes.”
Using data collected, this cabinet committee will also guide Alberta’s government in executing its commitment to hire 3,000 new teachers and 1,500 new educational assistants over the next three years. They will also assist in identifying and prioritizing where new schools and modulars should be built, advancing the government’s commitment to invest $8.6 billion to build 130 new schools, and provide 109 modular classrooms in the growing communities that need them urgently.
Quick facts
- Members of the Class Size and Complexity Cabinet Committee include:
- Danielle Smith, Premier of Alberta
- Demetrios Nicolaides, Minister of Education and Childcare
- Jason Nixon, Minister of Assisted Living and Social Services
- Rick Wilson, Minister of Mental Health and Addiction
- Searle Turton, Minister of Child and Family Services
- Lynnette Anderson, chief superintendent, Edmonton Catholic Schools
- Nicole Buchanan, chair, Red Deer Public Schools
- Marilyn Dennis, former president of Alberta School Boards Association
- Mike McMann, superintendent, Fort Vermilion Schools and President, College of Alberta School Superintendents
- Joanne Pitman, chief superintendent, Calgary Board of Education
- Dr. Elissa Corsi, Alberta Teachers’ Association
- Only Cabinet members are voting members. Additional guests will be invited to attend and share their expertise at the discretion of the chairs.
- School boards will be required to submit data on Alberta classrooms by Nov. 24.
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