Connect with us
[bsa_pro_ad_space id=12]

National

Canada’s Constitutional Mistake: How the Rule of Law Gave Way to the Managerial State

Published

44 minute read

From the C2C Journal

Most Canadians surely believe their society is governed by the rule of law. We all have rights and freedoms, safeguarded by the courts, that protect us from the tyranny of the state. All of that is mirage, argues Bruce Pardy. In this provocative essay, Pardy describes how authority in Canada is now vested in a managerial elite. They supervise our speech, employment, bank accounts and media. Controlling vast sectors of the economy and society, they track, direct, incentivize, censor, punish, redistribute, subsidize, tax, license and inspect. Elected legislatures delegate them authority, and courts let them do as they like – including infringing on Charter rights – to achieve whatever social goals they deem in the public interest. The rule of law has melted away; rule by law now prevails. It is time, Pardy says, for Canadians to correct the naïve constitutional mistake that started us down this road.

We made a mistake.

Kings once ruled England with absolute power. Their word was the law. Centuries of struggle and reform gradually overcame their tyranny. We adopted this idea called the rule of law. We established checks, balances, limits, restraints and individual rights. For a while it worked. The law in Canada, as in other countries that inherited British common law, provided a system of justice as good as anything that civilization had ever produced.

But now the rule of law is fading. When it suits them, our institutions set aside their restraints. Using an idea to hold the powerful in check works only for as long as the powerful believe in the idea. And increasingly in the Canada of today, they do not.

Our mistake, over these centuries of reform, was that we did not go far enough. We did not take power away from institutions to rule over us. Instead, we just moved the powers around. Today, as in the days of kings, the law is based upon the authority of those who govern, not upon the consent of the governed.

The Law is not what it Pretends to Be

Law students come to law school to learn the law, which many of them think is a bunch of rules. Learn the rules, and you’re a lawyer. But that is not what the law is or how it works.

On their first day of law school at the Canadian university where I teach, I read my students a poem. It’s a short  verse by R.D. Laing, a Scottish psychiatrist and philosopher who died in 1989. Laing was writing about personal interactions and relationships, but he might as well have been writing about the law. The verse goes:

They are playing a game.

They are playing at not playing a game.

If I show them I see they are, I will break the rules, and they will punish me.

I must play their game, of not seeing I see the game.

The law is a game. It pretends to be something it is not.

The Law does not Rule – People in Institutions do

I could have picked any of a thousand illustrations, but this one is simple. And it is one you already know.

Our Constitution is the supreme law of Canada. It says so, right in the text. The Constitution includes the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Section 2(b) of the Charter guarantees the right to free speech. It says: “2. Everyone has the following fundamental freedoms:…(b) freedom of…expression…”

What can we tell from these nine words? We instinctively understand, immediately, that they do not mean what they say. Because they can’t. The provision plainly states that we have a right to free speech, but in its sheer absoluteness it tells us that we do not, at least not one that we can count on. How do we know?

Imagine someone comes up to you on the sidewalk and says, “I have a knife in my pocket. Give me your wallet or I’ll stab you in the heart.” That’s an assault. Your assailant threatened you with imminent violence and, in so doing, committed a crime. And yet, all he did was speak. There has been no stabbing, yet. There has been no theft, yet. The guy might not even have a knife. He spoke words. And section 2(b) of the Charter guarantees free speech. How can it be an offence?

The answer, of course, is that section 2(b) does not mean that all speech is protected. You cannot threaten other people with violence. I don’t know anyone who would argue that section 2(b) does or that it should allow this. But section 2(b) includes no limits. Its words don’t say where the line is. The provision doesn’t tell us what “freedom of expression” means.

Rights are not absolute: Despite Canada’s Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the courts have pronounced on everything from what jokes comedians can tell to what pronouns can be used in court; regulators will determine what online content you may see and what medical opinions doctors may express. (Source of top right and bottom photos: Unsplash)

Everyone knows that free speech is not absolute and that some speech is not protected. Courts draw that line. We pretend that they do so in a manner that is bound by precedent, logic and the principles of statutory interpretation. But those considerations don’t compel the answer. In fact, skilled jurists can basically come to any answer that they can conjure up and support with judicial rhetoric. Rationales shift. Rights can mean something a little different every time.

It’s easy to agree that people should not have the right to threaten violence. But that’s not where the line on free speech is now drawn in Canada. Instead, an array of restrictions on speech has been created. You may not discriminate in your public statements. Comedians may not tell jokes intended to offend someone’s dignity on a protected ground. In some courts you must speak the pronouns that others require. Regulators prevent doctors from expressing medical opinions at odds with government policies. The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission has the power to curate online content. The federal government has promised to censor “misinformation” and “online harm”, which means speech that it doesn’t like.

As courts become increasingly sympathetic to legal concepts such as “collective good” and so-called “group” rights, free speech in Canada becomes less an individual right to say what you think and more a privilege to express ideas consistent with what is deemed the public interest. Our constitutional guarantee of free expression doesn’t mean what it appears to say. If the Charter was honest, it would read: “2. Everyone has the fundamental freedoms that courts decide, from time to time, that they should have.” Which is essentially what section 1 of the Charter, the clause stating there are “reasonable limits” to the rights in the document, has come to mean anyway.

In England, the long and difficult process of transferring power from the king to legislatures was marked by the British Magna Carta of 1215 (shown at left) and continued through the Glorious Revolution of 1688, which gave Parliament legislative supremacy. Depicted at right, the Glorious Revolution’s Battle of the Boyne Between James II and William III, 1690, by Jan Van Huchtenberg.

Every reasonably well-informed person knows this. And yet people still harbour the conviction that the Charter means something objective and solid. If I had a dollar for every person during Covid-19 who said, “But they can’t do that, it’s in the Charter!”, I would be a wealthy man. All the Charter does – ALL that it does – is shift the final call on certain questions from legislatures to courts. But I don’t want to leave you with the wrong impression. Our problem is not that power resides in the courts.

The original problem was the king. In a long and difficult process starting in England, perhaps, with the Magna Carta in 1215, we took power from the king and gave it to legislatures.

Centuries later following the Glorious Revolution, the English Civil Rights Act of 1688 provided, in the now-quirky spelling of that era: “…the pretended Power of Suspending of Laws or the Execution of Laws by Regall Authority without Consent of Parlyament is illegal.” Parliament was elected, by some of the people at least. Legislatures had democratic legitimacy. Legislative supremacy became the foundation of British constitutional democracy.

But legislatures can be tyrants too. Legislative supremacy means that legislatures can pass any laws they like. They could do – and sometimes did – similar sorts of bad things that kings could do. They could criminalize your private relationships. They could take your property. They could give police the power to invade your privacy without a warrant. They could censor your speech. They could eviscerate rights found in the common law.

The newly independent Americans offered a solution: they created a Bill of Rights (comprising the first ten amendments to the United States Constitution, ratified in 1791) that took power from legislatures and gave it to courts.

Two hundred years after the Bill of Rights, the Canadian Charter did the same: took power from legislatures and gave it to courts. And here we are. Except the story is not quite done. There is one more step to go.

The Rule of Law: Restrained Government

What was the idea of the rule of law supposed to be? Legal theorists through the ages – a short list of whom would include Aristotle, Montesquieu, A.V. Dicey, Lon Fuller, Ronald Dworkin, Joseph Raz – would say that the rule of law is complicated. But it need not be. To see it clearly, compare it to its opposite: the rule of individual persons. When King Henry VIII in 1536 ordered that his second wife, Anne Boleyn, should lose her head, that was the despotic rule of a person.

The meaning of the rule of law is made clear by its opposite – rule by the individual; when King Henry VIII ordered the execution of his second wife Anne Boleyn in 1536, that was the despotic rule of a person. Depicted at left, Henry VIII’s first interview with Anne Boleyn by Daniel Maclise (painted in 1836); at right, Anne Boleyn’s Execution by Jan Luyken (painted in 1600s).

But it is people who make laws. People enforce laws. People apply laws to cases. It can’t be any other way. How to have the rule of law without the rule of persons?

One way is to divide and separate their powers (and, to a manageable degree, to put them in competition or opposition to one another) so that no one alone can rule. The most practical way devised to accomplish this has been to divide the functions of a state into three branches: the legislative, the executive and the judicial.

Under the separation-of-powers approach, legislatures legislate. They pass laws without knowing the future circumstances to which the rules will apply. And if someone or some organization ignores their laws, they have no power to do anything about it directly.

The executive branch – headed and personified by a president, prime minister, chancellor or constitutional monarch – implements and carries out those rules. The executive has no power to design the rules it implements. Instead, its powers are limited to implementing and, in part, enforcing the rules that the legislature enacts. In the United States, where the President and Congress are distinct, legislative and executive branches are expressly separated. But even in Westminster parliamentary systems, where the same politicians lead the legislature and the executive, most executive action requires statutory authority.

Courts adjudicate. They do not make the rules but apply them to disputes that come before them. They also help the executive enforce laws by adjudicating prosecutions, passing judgment and handing out punishments. These rules prevent courts from deciding cases on judges’ personal inclinations. Moreover, courts keep the executive within its powers.

When powers are separated, no one has their hands on the wheel. No one can dictate what will happen in any specific circumstance. Legislatures don’t know to what future disputes their rules will apply. Courts must apply those rules to cases as they arise. Government agencies are bound by rules they have not made. As Austrian economist and philosopher Friedrich Hayek put it in The Constitution of Liberty, “It is because the lawgiver does not know the particular cases to which his rules will apply, and it is because the judge who applies them has no choice in drawing the conclusions that follow from the existing body of rules and the particular facts of the case, that it can be said that laws and not men rule.”

Checks and balances: Among the best safeguards against tyranny is a clear separation of powers; in the U.S., Congress (top) legislates, the executive branch – headed by the President (middle) – implements the rules, and the courts – headed by the U.S. Supreme Court (bottom) – enforce laws and adjudicate disputes. (Source of middle photo: Lawrence Jackson)

The rule of law protects us from the rule of persons. That’s the theory. But it’s not how it works, at least not anymore, and not in Canada.

The Unholy Trinity of the Administrative State

In Canada, the separation of powers has become a mirage. In its place, the king has returned to haunt us, albeit in a different form. What was once the monarch has become the administrative state, the modern Leviathan. It consists of every part of government that is neither legislature nor court: cabinets, departments, ministries, agencies, public health officials, boards, commissions, tribunals, regulators, law enforcement, inspectors and more.

These public bodies control our lives in every conceivable way. They supervise our speech, employment, bank accounts and media. They indoctrinate our children. They locked us down and directed our personal medical decisions. They control the money supply, the interest rate and the terms of credit. They track, direct, incentivize, censor, punish, redistribute, subsidize, tax, license and inspect. Their control over our lives would make the kings of old blush.

Legislatures and courts made it this way. Together, they have returned power to the executive, now occupied not by the king but by a permanent managerial bureaucracy, or if you like, the “deep state”.

We believed that these institutions would act as checks and balances on each other. But from the beginning, all we have ever done is move power around. No doubt they still have their disputes and quarrels between them. But for the most part they are now all on the same page.

 

Instead of enacting rules, legislatures delegate authority to the administration to make the rules: regulations, policies, guidelines, orders and decisions of all kinds.

 

Courts, instead of keeping agencies within their powers, defer to their expertise.

 

More and more, courts allow public authorities to do as they think best in the “public interest”, as long as their vision of public interest reflects “progressive” sensibilities. Courts generally require these administrative agencies to apply the law not correctly but only “reasonably”. According to the Supreme Court, government agencies can infringe Charter rights “proportionately” to the statutory objectives they are attempting to achieve.

Instead of the rule of law, we now have what has become the Unholy Trinity of the Administrative State.  Delegation from the legislature and deference from the courts produces discretion for the administration to decide the public good.

 

The human rights commission and the tribunal – not the legislature – decide what constitutes discrimination. Environment officials, not the legislature, determine the criteria for permitting environmental impacts. Cabinet, not the legislature, decides when pipelines will be built. Public health officials, not the legislature, order businesses to close and people to wear masks. The innumerable bodies of the executive branch now make rules, enforce rules and adjudicate cases. Together, the legislature and the courts have returned power to the king. Except the actual king, living in his palace in England, is now just a figurehead. The administrative state occupies his throne.

 

Indeed, the case could be made that we effectively now have four branches of government rather than three: the legislature, the courts, the political executive and the administrative bureaucracy (the “deep state”), which consists of those government actors not directly controlled or controllable by prime ministers or premiers and their cabinets.

 

Instead of separated functions, we have concentrated power. Instead of checks and balances, the branches cooperate to empower the state’s management of society. Together, their authority is almost absolute. They can set aside individual autonomy in the name of public welfare and progressive causes.

A Managerial Theocracy

Almost 1,000 years ago, William the Conqueror vanquished Anglo-Saxon England, made himself king and created a feudal society. If you belonged to its elite, unless you were Church nobility or a member of the royal family, you were a land baron. Land was the foundation of the economy. Inheritance determined land rights and social standing. Lineage was a moral principle. Good and important people were born to good and important families. If your parents were serfs, you were a serf too, and deserved to be one. God determined who you were. For at least the next 700 years, lineage was destiny.

Fast forward through the Enlightenment to the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century. Men began making machines, and machines began doing work. Industry, not land, became the predominant source of wealth. Land was still important but became a commodity to be bought and sold like any other. Like the patricians of the fictional Downton Abbey, the landed aristocracies faded away. Productivity and merit in the markets of industrial capitalism came to matter more than lineage. A new elite emerged: capitalists, entrepreneurs and innovators, closely entwined with the at-first small but steadily growing bourgeois middle class.

But this elite rapidly gave way to another. In the book-length online essay The China Convergence, the pseudonymous N.S. Lyons explains what happened:

“Sometime around the second half of the 19th century a revolution in human affairs began to take place, occurring in parallel to and building on the industrial revolution. This was a revolution…which upended nearly every area of human activity and rapidly reorganized civilization…in order to manage the growing complexities of mass and scale: the mass bureaucratic state, the mass standing army, the mass corporation, mass media, mass public education, and so on. This was the managerial revolution.”

A managerial theocracy was born. A theocracy is a form of government in which God rules, but only indirectly, with ecclesiastic authorities interpreting God’s laws for his subjects. In effect, those authorities are in charge. No one else gets to speak to God, so no one else knows what he means. Our managerial theocracy is secular yet works in a similar way. Rather than worshiping an external deity, the concept of “management” itself plays the role of God. Technocrats and experts are its priests and bishops. They determine what management requires in any situation.

If you are a member of the elite today, you are probably not an entrepreneur. Instead, you belong to the professional managerial class. You help to plan, direct and engineer society. You make policy, develop programs, spend public money, make legal decisions or issue licences and approvals. You are a manager – not a mid-level office manager like the manager of a bank, but a manager of civilization. You tell people what to do.

This elite directs the economy, the environment, technology, energy use, wealth distribution, interest rates, housing supply, land use, transportation, speech, public attitudes, equity, gender, mental health, diabetes, drug addiction and so on. Or at least, they try to. Managing these things often doesn’t work, of course, and frequently creates terrible outcomes. But that is beside the point.

The modern Leviathan: A massive administrative apparatus controls our lives in almost every way, such as (clockwise from top-left) the Canada Revenue Agency, RCMP, Department of Environment and Climate Change Canada, public health officials (shown at bottom right, Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam), the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and local school boards (shown at middle left, headquarters for Toronto District School Board). (Sources of photos: (top left) Obert Madondo, licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0; (middle left) PFHLai, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0; (middle right) Transport Canada; (bottom left) Picasa; (bottom right) US Mission Geneva, licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0)

People believe in public management. Like the water in which fish swim, it is a conviction people don’t realize that they have. They accept without thinking about it that society requires an expert bureaucracy. Government exists to solve social problems for the common good. What else is it for? Most people believe this. Courts believe it. Politicians of all stripes believe it. The experts certainly believe it, for they are its high priests.

Even big business believes it. Capitalists have accepted their defeat. Now they help governments to manage the economy. In exchange, governments protect them from competition and provide public largesse. Large players are allowed to operate in regulated oligopolies in a system of crony corporatism, while small independent entrepreneurs get red tape and corrupted, unequal market competition.

But mostly everyone is on board. To speak against the administrative state is to be a heretic.

Not Rule OF Law but Rule BY Law

Some people imagine that they still live in a capitalist, liberal democracy that operates under the rule of law. They believe that people should be judged and advance based upon their individual merit. They believe that free markets produce the best outcomes. They believe in the moral virtue of individual initiative and hard work. Some insist that these values still reflect a social consensus.

These people are modern-day Luddites. We live in a managerial society. Individuality is anathema to its premise of managerial supremacy. Merit still makes an occasional appearance, but merit is a principle of the vanquished elite. Management is a collective enterprise. Individual initiatives, decisions and idiosyncrasies get in the way of central planning. Our modern system of government runs on broad discretion in the hands of a technocratic managerial class. Stellar individual achievement not only often goes unrewarded, but sometimes is actually feared and resented. Increasingly, corporations function this way as well.

Instead of the rule of law, we have rule by law. The two are very different. People sometimes think that the rule of law means that we must have laws. We do. We have lots of laws. We have laws dealing with everything under the sun. We have authorities making and enforcing them. These authorities act lawfully. But that is not a definitive characteristic of the rule of law. Virtually all states make sure to act lawfully – including some of the worst tyrannies. Even the Third Reich.

Simply having laws does not mean the rule of law; even the worst tyrannies maintain the forms of lawfulness while ignoring the essential aspect that laws are needed as much to restrain the unchecked behaviour of the state as to regulate the affairs of citizens. Pictured: (top left) a session of Nazi Germany’s “People’s Court”, 1944; (right) the constitution of the communist Soviet Union; (bottom left), the Supreme Court of communist North Korea. (Source of top left photo: Bundesarchiv, Bild 151-39-23, licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 de)

Acting lawfully is not the test for the rule of law. Instead, the rule of law restricts what government can do. The rule of law means, for example, that laws are knowable, transparent, generally applicable and “fixed and announced beforehand”, as Hayek put it in The Road to Serfdom. Rule by law, in contrast, is legal instrumentalism, where governments use laws as tools to manage their subjects and achieve desirable outcomes. The rule of law and rule by law are incompatible.

Managers hate the rule of law. It gets in the way of crafting solutions to problems they perceive to be important. The rule of law is unquestionably inconvenient to those in government who just want to get things done – in the sense of creating new policies, writing new rules and passing new laws. The inconvenience of the rule of law is not its downside but its purpose: to prevent officials from making things up as they go. Which is why the tenets of the rule of law are fading away. Governments wish to be agile. They aim to respond to crises as they arise. Rules are fluid, ever-changing, and discretionary. Bureaucrats and even courts make one-off decisions that need not be consistent with the previous case. Instead of officials being bound by the law, they are in control of it and therefore above it. In a managerial age, that’s not “corruption” but an inevitable feature of the way things work.

New Brunswicker Gerald Comeau (top) got a stiff lesson in judicial sophistry after bringing beer across the provincial border; instead of confirming the Constitution’s clear proclamation that all goods must flow freely within Canada, the Supreme Court moved decisively to protect the regulatory state. At bottom, former Chief Justice Beverley McLachlin during the Comeau case. (Sources of photos: (top) Serge Bouchard/Radio-Canada; (bottom) CBC)

Courts are onside. The Supreme Court of Canada has made sure that the Constitution does not impede the administrative state. To cite just one example, in 2012 Gerald Comeau, a resident of New Brunswick, bought beer in Quebec. The RCMP ticketed him as he crossed the provincial border on his way home. Under a New Brunswick law, the New Brunswick Liquor Corporation has a monopoly on the sale of alcohol in the province. Comeau challenged the fine by citing section 121 of the Constitution Act, 1867, which requires free trade among the provinces. The section states, “All Articles of the Growth, Produce, or Manufacture of any one of the Provinces shall…be admitted free into each of the other Provinces.”

But the Supreme Court feared that prohibiting trade barriers between provinces would threaten the modern regulatory state. If to be “admitted free” is a constitutional guarantee of interprovincial free trade, the Court trembled, then “agricultural supply management schemes, public health-driven prohibitions, environmental controls, and innumerable comparable regulatory measures that incidentally impede the passage of goods crossing provincial borders may be invalid.” Therefore, the Court said, provincial governments can impede the flow of goods across provincial borders for any reason, as long as limiting trade is not their “primary purpose”. So there you have it: “shall” and “be admitted free” actually mean the opposite of what you think they do.

So too with the Charter. The Supreme Court has held that the guarantee of equal treatment under the law in section 15(1) requires equal or comparable outcomes between groups. The B.C. Court of Appeal has held that the principles of fundamental justice in section 7 justify socialized medicine. The Ontario Divisional Court has held that professional regulatory bodies may order the political re-education of their members, notwithstanding section 2. The Supreme Court has held that administrative agencies may disregard freedom of religion in pursuit of the values of equity, diversity and inclusion. The Ontario Superior Court has held that prohibition of worship during Covid-19 that infringed freedom of religion was saved by section 1.

A rule-of-law document in a managerial age: Courts regularly interpret the Charter based on the values and social principles the administrative state seeks to advance, disregarding or reinterpreting provisions they find inconvenient – such as ruling that prohibition of religious worship during Covid-19 did not infringe on freedom of religion or association. (Sources of photos: (left) BeeBee Photography/Shutterstock; (right) The Canadian Press)

The Charter is a rule-of-law document in a managerial age. Courts are interpreting it in a manner consistent with managerial values.

We trusted that the institutions that rule over us – the legislature, the courts, the executive, the bureaucracy, the technocrats – would commit to their own restraint. We assumed that they would protect our liberty. We believed that vague language in constitutional documents would preserve our political order. All of that was a naïve mistake.

False Fixes

Constitutional rights are not enough. They merely carve out narrow and unreliable exceptions to the general rule that the state can do what it thinks best. They affirm the default assumption that the state’s power is unlimited. Our constitutional mistake cannot be fixed by better drafting.

Yes, section 2(b) of the Charter could have been more precise; but not all provisions are as vague as 2(b), and the Supreme Court has given its own meaning to sections more robustly worded than 2(b). Language, of course, has inherent ambiguities. Finding words that deal precisely with every future circumstance is impossible. Legal answers are rarely black-and-white. The process of applying general rules to specific facts requires interpretation, reasoning and argument, within which skilled jurists can bob and weave. Better wording would have improved our Constitution, but it would not have been enough to safeguard the rule of law and resist the managerial state. We need different constitutional premises.

A long line of philosophers, from the ancient Greek Socrates to the 20th century American John Rawls, have expressed the idea that populations agree to be ruled. There is a “social contract” between the ruled and their rulers. In exchange for their submission, governments provide the people with benefits, such as peace, prosperity and safety.

But it’s a chimera; no such social contract has ever existed. Citizens are never asked for their agreement. No one is permitted to opt-out. No one agrees on the extent of the authority, or on what the benefits are to be. Social contract theory is a fiction. Real contracts are voluntary, while (supposed) social contracts are involuntary. Involuntary consent is no consent at all. Even in the West, laws and governments coerce people against their will.

A Different Premise: Consent

The alternative is a legal order based upon actual, individual consent. That would mean that people could not be coerced or have force imposed upon them without their agreement. Since laws are based upon force, the state could not impose any other laws without the specific consent of each citizen subject to them.

These two principles would change everything.

If force was prohibited, then the law would consist of corollaries of that principle: rights and liabilities that protect person and property by prohibiting touching, physical restraint, confinement, medical treatment without informed consent, detention, confiscation, theft, the use of biological agents, breach of privacy, threats of force, and counselling, soliciting or inducing others to use force; that keep the peace; that compensate for physical harm; that enforce partially executed contracts; and so on. The only exceptions to the prohibition on force would be in response to the use of force: to repel force in self-defence and to execute and enforce laws prohibiting force. No one, including the state, could use force or impose other rules for the common good, public necessity or emergency.

Many questions would arise. How would courts enforce these principles? What happens when different people consent to different sets of other laws? Taxes require coercion, so how would the state fund itself if citizens could refuse to be subject to tax laws? These and many more challenges can be answered in a principled way. But they are for another day.

What we do know: the existing constitutional order is failing. Instead of protecting liberty, the state has become its leading threat. It is time to fix our constitutional mistake.

Bruce Pardy is executive director of Rights Probe and professor of law at Queen’s University. You can reach him at [email protected] or on Twitter @PardyBruce.

Todayville is a digital media and technology company. We profile unique stories and events in our community. Register and promote your community event for free.

Follow Author

Business

Who owns Canada’s public debt?

Published on

The Audit David Clinton's avatar David Clinton

Remember when thinking about our debt crisis was just scary?

During his recent election campaign, Mark Carney announced plans to add $225 billion (with a “b”) to federal debt over the next four years. That, to put it mildly, is a consequential number. I thought it would be useful to put it into context, both in terms of our existing debt, and of some social and political changes those plans could spark.

How much money does Canada currently owe? According to Statistics Canada’s statement of government operations and balance sheet, as of Q4 2024, that number would be nearly $954 billion. That’s compared with the $621 billion we owed back in 2015.

The Audit is a reader-supported publication.

To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

How much does interest on our current debt cost us each year? The official Budget 2024 document predicted that we’d pay around $51 billion each year to just service our debt. But that’s before piling on the new $225 billion.

We – and the governments we elect – might be tempted to imagine that the cash behind public loans just magically appears out of thin air. In fact, most Canadian government debt is financed through debt securities such as marketable bonds, treasury bills, and foreign currency debt instruments. And those bonds and bills are owned by buyers.

Who are those buyers? Many of them are probably Canadian banks and other financial institutions. But as of February 2025, according to Statistics Canada, it was international portfolio investors who owned $527 billion of Canadian federal government debt securities.

Most of those foreign investors are probably from (relatively) friendly countries like the U.S. and U.K. But that’s certainly not the whole story. Although I couldn’t find direct data breaking down the details, there are some broadly related investment income numbers that might be helpful.

Specifically, all foreign investments into both public and private entities in Canada in 2024 amounted to $219 billion dollars. In that same year, investments from “all other countries” totaled $51 billion. What Statistics Canada means by “all other countries” covers all countries besides the US, UK, EU, Japan, and the 38 OECD nations.

The elephant in the “all other countries” room has to be China.

So let’s break this down. The $527 billion foreign-owned investment debt I mentioned earlier represents around 55 percent of our total debt.¹ And if the “all other countries” ratio in general foreign investments holds true² for federal public debt, then it’s realistic to assume that the federal government currently owes around 11 percent of its debt to government and business entities associated with the Chinese Communist Party.

By all accounts, an 11 percent share in a government’s debt counts as leverage. Given China’s recent history, our ability to act independently in international and even domestic affairs could be compromised. But it could also be destabilizing, exposing us to risk if China’s economy faces turmoil which could disrupt our ability to roll over debt or secure new financing.

Mark Carney’s plan to add another 20 percent to our debt over the next four years will only increase our exposure to these – and many more – risks. Canadian voters have made an interesting choice.

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” – H.L. Mencken

1 Although I should note that, according to the government’s 2022-2023 Debt Management Report, “in 2022-23, non-resident investors held 29 per cent of Government of Canada securities”.
2 To be honest, there really isn’t enough data available to be confident in this assumption

The Audit is a reader-supported publication.

To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Continue Reading

Business

BUILD CANADA NOW: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada from Energy Leaders

Published on

From EnergyNow.Ca

We can strengthen economic sovereignty and resilience: Unlock private-sector investment, responsibly develop our world-class natural resources, support climate action

The Rt. Hon. Mark Carney, PC, MP
Prime Minister of Canada

Dear Prime Minister Carney,

On behalf of Canada’s leading energy companies, please accept our congratulations on your election victory and appointment as Canada’s new Prime Minister.

This moment marks not only the first chapter for your government, but also a vital opportunity for our nation to come together around shared goals and build the trust necessary to get big things done. Together we can Build Canada Now and strengthen economic sovereignty and resilience, by unlocking private sector investment, through responsibly developing Canada’s world class natural resources and supporting climate action to reduce emissions. As business leaders in Canada, we look forward to working constructively with you and your cabinet to achieve our energy sector’s potential and our shared goal to position our country as a global energy superpower.

For context, global prosperity will continue to rely on oil and natural gas for decades to come. Regardless of whether absolute global demand will grow or weaken over time, the natural decline of oil and natural gas production requires ongoing investment to replace that decline. Without continued investment, global supply could fall by more than half within 10 years—the question is, in what producing countries will investment occur, and the economic benefits realized? With abundant resources, a strong commitment to environmental stewardship and responsible energy production, it should be Canada, and it should be now. Canada can be a global energy leader and secure long-term economic prosperity.

We have reviewed your platform for governing Canada, particularly your ambition of building the fastest growing economy in the G7. As a major contributor to the Canadian economy, with significant untapped potential, the energy sector must play a pivotal role in your pursuit of this ambition. Growth in the Canadian oil and natural gas sector supports GDP growth, job creation, and tax revenue. Your focus on fostering energy independence and enhancing Canada’s energy infrastructure and clean technology, requires major sector investment and globally competitive energy and carbon policies. Over the last decade, the layering and complexity of energy policies has resulted in a lack of investor confidence and consequently, a barrier to investment – especially when compared to the United States, which is taking steps to simplify its permitting process.

In March, a subset of us wrote to you and the other federal leaders, outlining an urgent action plan needed to support ongoing and future investment from the energy sector in Canada. We note that many of these issues were talked about in your campaign and are of growing interest for Canadians as is evidenced by recent polling. The bullets below reflect our earlier action plan. Beneath each statement we have described opportunities to work together to deliver on our shared objectives.

  • Simplify regulation. The federal government’s Impact Assessment Act and West Coast tanker ban are impeding development and need to be overhauled and simplified. Regulatory processes need to be streamlined, and decisions need to withstand judicial challenges.”
    • Current regulatory processes are complex, unpredictable, subjective, and excessively long. These processes inhibit the ability of industry to make timely investments, add unnecessary costs and create uncertainty within capital markets. Aligned with your proposal to streamline the approval process, industry is committed to working with your government to ensure Canada can grow exports of oil and natural gas to other regions.
  • Commit to firm deadlines for project approvals. The federal government needs to reduce regulatory timelines so that major projects are approved within 6 months of application.”
    • Your proposal to have all federal regulatory authorities complete reviews of nationally significant projects within a two-year timeframe is a positive step, but insufficient. In our opinion, two years is still too long of a period for review and we must target a 6-month approval process to bring capital back to Canada. Additional clarity with regards to provincial jurisdiction is required. We believe that we can work together to accelerate this even further to accomplish urgent economic growth, while maintaining environmental standards and addressing Indigenous rights.
  • Grow production. The federal government’s unlegislated cap on emissions must be eliminated to allow the sector to reach its full potential.”
    • We continue to believe the federal government’s cap on emissions creates uncertainty, is redundant, will limit growth and unnecessarily result in production cuts, and stifle infrastructure investments. Together, we can drive investment into emissions reductions by simplifying the regulatory regime, establishing an attractive fiscal environment, and ensuring carbon policies protect our export industries.
  • Attract investment. The federal carbon levy on large emitters is not globally cost competitive and should be repealed to allow provincial governments to set more suitable carbon regulations.”
    • Recognizing the global nature of oil and natural gas, industry needs clear, competitive, and durable fiscal frameworks, including carbon policy and associated costs, sufficient to secure the required capital and incentivize investment in the sector. The current federal price and stringency trajectory results in uncompetitive costs compared to those we compete with to deliver our products to market.  Additionally, the potential benefits of a federal approach, like consistency across jurisdictions and connected carbon markets, has failed to materialize.  A solution is to revert back to the functioning system where provinces administer the policies and pricing to enable emissions-reduction investments, improve emissions performance, and maintain competitiveness.
  • Incent Indigenous co-investment opportunities. The federal government needs to provide Indigenous loan guarantees at scale so industry may create infrastructure ownership opportunities to increase prosperity for communities and to ensure that Indigenous communities benefit from development.”
    • Your intention of doubling Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program to $10 billion to support infrastructure ownership opportunities and increase prosperity for communities is aligned with our earlier recommendation. That being said, Indigenous loan guarantee programs are only effective if Canada fosters a competitive investment environment. We look forward to working with you on this initiative to grow the prosperity of Indigenous communities and earn their support for our shared ambitions.

The time is now to take action, signaling to the global investment markets that Canada is ready to move forward with achieving our shared vision of Canada as a leading global energy superpower.

We know the decisions in the coming months will have a lasting impact on Canada’s economic sovereignty, economy and global position, and that each of us—governments, industry, and Canadians—has a role to play. We can’t do it without each other.

The energy industry looks forward to working together, with you and your government, on an urgent basis, for the benefit of this country and Canadians nationwide.

Regards,

Continue Reading

Trending

X