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Can addiction be predicted—and prevented?

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Addictions

Can addiction be predicted—and prevented?

Todayville

Published

5 months ago

12 minute read

By Alexandra Keeler

These four personality traits are predictive of addiction. A new program is using this knowledge to prevent addiction from ever developing

In classrooms across Canada, addiction prevention is getting personal.

Instead of warning students about the dangers of drugs, a program called PreVenture teaches students about themselves — and it’s working.

Developed by Canadian clinical psychologist Patricia Conrod, PreVenture helps young people recognize how traits like risk-taking or negative thinking shape their reactions to stress.

“When you intervene around these traits and help people learn new cognitive behavioural strategies to manage these traits, you are able to reduce their substance use,” said Conrod, who is also a professor at the Université de Montréal.

By tailoring addiction prevention strategies to individual personality profiles, the program is changing how we think about addiction — from something we react to, to something we might stop before it starts.

And now, scientists say the potential for early intervention is going even deeper — down to our genes.

Personality and addiction

PreVenture is a personality-targeted prevention program that helps young people understand and manage traits linked to a higher propensity for future substance use.

The program focuses on four core traits — anxiety sensitivity, sensation seeking, impulsivity and hopelessness — that shape how individuals experience the world and respond to stress, social situations and emotional challenges.

“They don’t only predict who’s at risk,” said Conrod in an interview with Canadian Affairs. “They predict what you’re at risk for with quite a lot of specificity.”

Anxiety sensitivity shows up in people who feel overwhelmed by physical symptoms like a racing heart or dizziness. People with this trait may ultimately turn to alcohol, benzodiazepines such as Xanax, or opioids to calm their bodies.

Sensation seeking is characterized by a desire for excitement and novel experiences. This trait is associated with a higher likelihood of being drawn to substances like cannabis, MDMA, psilocybin or other hallucinogens.

“[Cannabis] alters their perceptual experiences, and so makes things feel more novel,” said Conrod.

Sensation seeking is also associated with binge drinking or use of stimulants such as cocaine.

The trait of impulsivity involves difficulty controlling urges and delaying gratification. This trait is associated with a higher likelihood of engaging in risky behaviours and an increased risk of addiction to a broad range of substances.

“Young people with attentional problems and a core difficulty with response inhibition have a hard time putting a stop on a behaviour once they’ve initiated it,” said Conrod.

Finally, the trait of hopelessness is tied to a pessimistic, self-critical mindset. People with this trait often expect rejection or assume others are hostile, so they may use alcohol or opioids to dull emotional pain.

“We call it negative attributional style,” said Conrod. “They have come to believe that the world is against them, and they need to protect themselves.”

These traits also cluster into two broader categories — internalizing and externalizing.

Anxiety sensitivity and hopelessness direct distress inward, while sensation seeking and impulsivity are characterized by outward disinhibition.

“These traits change your perception,” said Conrod. “You see the world differently through these traits.”

Conrod also notes that these traits appear across cultures, making targeted addiction prevention broadly applicable.

Personality-based prevention

Unlike most one-size-fits-all drug prevention programs, PreVenture tailors its prevention strategies for each individual trait category to reduce substance use risk.

The program uses a brief personality assessment tool to identify students’ dominant traits. It then delivers cognitive-behavioural strategies to help users manage stress, emotions and risky behaviours associated with them.

Recreation of the personality assessment tool based on the substance use risk profile scale — a scale measuring traits linked to reinforcement-specific substance use profiles. | Alexandra Keeler

Students learn to recognize how their dominant trait influences their thoughts and reactions — and how to shift those patterns in healthier directions.

“We’re trying to raise awareness to young people about how these traits are influencing their automatic thinking,” said Conrod. “You’re having them be a little more critical of their thoughts.”

Hopelessness is addressed by teaching strategies to challenge depressive thoughts; those high in sensation seeking explore safer ways to satisfy their need for stimulation; anxiety sensitivity is managed through calming techniques; and impulsivity is reduced by practicing pausing before acting.

Crucially, the program emphasizes the strengths of each trait as well.

“We try to present [traits] in a more positive way, not just a negative way,” said Sherry Stewart, a clinical psychologist at Dalhousie University who collaborates with Conrod.

“Your personality gets you into trouble — certainly, we discuss that — but also, what are the strengths of your personality?”

While a main goal of the program is preventing substance use disorders, the program barely discusses substances.

“You don’t really have to talk about substances very much,” said Conrod. “You talk more about how you’re managing the trait, and it has this direct impact on someone’s motivation to use, as well as how severely they experience mental health symptoms.”

The workshops make it clear, however, that while substances may offer temporary relief, they often worsen the very symptoms participants are trying to manage.

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Break The Needle provides news and analysis on addiction and crime in Canada.

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The genetic angle

Catherine Brownstein, a Harvard Medical School professor and geneticist at Boston Children’s Hospital, says genetic factors also help explain why some people are more vulnerable to addiction.

“A lot of personality is genetic,” she said in an interview with Canadian Affairs.

Her research has identified 47 locations in human DNA that affect brain development and shape personality traits.

While substance use risk cannot yet be detected genetically, certain gene variants — like SHANK3, NRXN1 and CRY1 — are linked to psychiatric disorders that often co-occur with substance use, including ADHD and schizophrenia.

Brownstein also says genetic variations influence pain perception.

Some variants increase pain sensitivity, while others eliminate it altogether. One such gene, SCN9A, may make individuals more likely to seek opioids for relief.

“If you’re in pain all the time, you want it to stop, and opioids are effective,” said Brownstein.

While we cannot yet predict addiction risk from genetics alone, Brownstein says she thinks genetic screening combined with psychological profiling could one day personalize prevention even further.

Expansion and challenges

Conrod’s personality-targeted intervention program, PreVenture, has proven highly effective.

A five-year study published in January found that students who participated in PreVenture workshops were 23 to 80 per cent less likely to develop substance use disorders by Grade 11.

Stewart says that the concept of PreVenture began with adults with substance use disorders, but research suggests earlier intervention can alter life trajectories. That insight has driven PreVenture’s expansion to younger age groups.

Conrod’s team delivers PreVenture to middle and high school students, UniVenture to university students and OpiVenture to adults in treatment for opioid dependence.

PreVenture has been implemented in schools across the U.S. and Canada, including in B.C., Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador. Five Canadian universities are participating in the UniVenture study.

However, currently, Canada’s flagship youth prevention strategy is based on the Icelandic Prevention Model — a 1990s framework that aims to reduce youth substance use by focusing on environmental factors such as family, school and peer influence.

While the Icelandic Prevention Model has shown success in Iceland, it has serious limitations. It lacks a mental health component, does not specifically address opioid use and has demonstrated mixed results by gender.

Despite strong evidence for personality-targeted prevention, programs like PreVenture remain underused.

Conrod says education systems often default to less effective, generic methods like one-off guest speakers. She also cites staffing shortages and burnout in schools, along with insufficient mental health services, as major barriers to implementing a new program.

Still, momentum is building.

B.C. has aligned their prevention services with the PreVenture model. And organizations such as the youth wellness networks Foundry B.C. and Youth Wellness Hubs Ontario are offering the program and expanding its reach.

Conrod believes the power of the program lies in helping young people feel seen and understood.

“It’s really important that a young person is provided with the space and focus to recognize what’s unique about [their] particular trait,” she said.

“Recognize that there are other people in the world that also think this way [and tell them] you’re not going crazy.”


This article was produced through the Breaking Needles Fellowship Program, which provided a grant to Canadian Affairs, a digital media outlet, to fund journalism exploring addiction and crime in Canada. Articles produced through the Fellowship are co-published by Break The Needle and Canadian Affairs.


Launched a year ago
Break The Needle provides news and analysis on addiction and crime in Canada.

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Addictions

Manitoba Is Doubling Down On A Failed Drug Policy

Published on November 30, 2025

By

Todayville

From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Marco Navarro-Genie

Manitoba is choosing to expand the same drug policy model that other provinces are abandoning, policies that normalize addiction while sidelining treatment, recovery, and public safety.

The New Democrat premier of British Columbia, David Eby, stood before reporters last spring and called his government’s decision to permit public drug use in certain spaces a failure.

The policy was part of the broader “harm reduction” strategy meant to address overdose deaths. Instead, it had stirred public anger, increased street disorder and had helped neither users nor the communities that host them. “We do not accept street disorder that makes communities feel unsafe,” Eby said. The province scrapped the plan.

In Alberta, the Conservative government began shutting down safer-supply prescribing due to concerns about drug diversion and misuse. The belief that more opioids can resolve the opioid crisis is losing credibility.

Ontario Progressive Conservatives are moving away from harm reduction by shutting down supervised consumption sites near schools and limiting safer-supply prescribing. Federal funding for programs is decreasing, and the province is shifting its focus to treatment models, even though not all sites are yet closed.

Yet amid these non-partisan reversals, Manitoba’s government has announced its intention to open a supervised drug-use site in Winnipeg. Premier Wab Kinew said, “We have too many Manitobans dying from overdose.” True. But it does not follow that repeating failed approaches will yield different results.

Reversing these failed policies is not a rejection of compassion. It is a recognition that good intentions do not produce good outcomes. Vancouver and Toronto have hosted supervised drug-use sites for years. The death toll keeps rising. Drug deaths in British Columbia topped 2,500 in 2023, even with the most expansive harm reduction infrastructure in the country. A peer-reviewed study published this year found that hospitalizations from opioid poisoning rose after B.C.’s safer-supply policy was implemented. Emergency department visits increased by more than three cases per 100,000 population, with no corresponding drop in fatal overdoses.

And the problem persists day to day. Paramedics in B.C. responded to nearly 4,000 overdose calls in July 2024 alone. The monthly call volume has exceeded 3,000 almost every month this year. These are signs of crisis management without a path to recovery.

There are consequences beyond public health. These policies change the character of neighbourhoods. Businesses suffer. Residents feel unsafe. And most tragically, the person using drugs is offered little more than a cot, a nurse and a quiet signal to continue. Real help, like treatment, housing and purpose, remains out of reach.

Somewhere along the way, bureaucracies stopped asking what recovery looks like. They have settled for managing human decline. They call it compassion. But it is really surrender, wrapped in medical language.

Harm reduction had its time. It made sense when it first emerged, during the AIDS crisis, when dirty needles spread HIV. Back then, the goal was to stop a deadly virus. Today, that purpose has been lost.

When policy drifts into ideology, reality becomes an afterthought. Underneath today’s approach is the belief that drug use is inevitable, that people cannot change, that liberty means letting others fade away quietly. These ideas do not reflect science. They do not reflect hope. They reflect despair. They reflect a politics that prioritizes the appearance of compassion over effectiveness.

What Manitoba needs is treatment access that meets the scale of the problem. That means detox beds, recovery homes and long-term care focused on restoring lives. These may not generate the desired headlines, but they work. They are demanding. They are slow. And they offer respect to the person behind the addiction.

There are no shortcuts. No policy will undo decades of pain overnight. But a policy that keeps people stuck using is not mercy. It is maintenance with no way out.

A government that believes in its people should not copy failure.

Marco Navarro-Genie is vice-president of research at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and co-author, with Barry Cooper, of Canada’s COVID: The Story of a Pandemic Moral Panic (2023).

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Addictions

The Death We Manage, the Life We Forget

Published on November 29, 2025

By

Todayville

Marco Navarro-Génie's avatar Marco Navarro-Génie

Our culture has lost the plot about what it means to live.

Reading that Manitoba is bringing supervised consumption to Winnipeg got me thinking.

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Walk through just about any major Canadian city, and you will see them. Figures bent forward at seemingly impossible angles, swaying in the characteristic “fentanyl fold,” suspended between consciousness and oblivion. They resemble the zombies of fiction: bodies that move through space without agency, awareness, or connection to the world around them. We think of zombies as the walking dead. Health workers and bureaucrats reverse their overdoses, send them back to the street, and call it saving lives.

At the same time, Canada offers medical assistance in dying to a woman who cited chemical sensitivities and the inability to find housing. It has been offered to veterans who asked for support and were met instead with an option for death. We fight to prevent one form of death while facilitating another. The contradiction is not accidental. It reveals something about the people involved and the funding behind it. That’s our culture. Us. It appears to me that our culture no longer knows what life is.

Ask any politician or program bureaucrat, and you will hear them explain, in the dry language of bureaucracy, that the twin approach to what they call harm reduction and medical assistance in dying (MAiD) rests on the shared premise of what they believe to be compassion. They think they respect autonomy, prevent suffering, and keep people alive when possible. It sounds humane. It is, in practice, incoherent. Bear with me for a moment.

The medical establishment administers naloxone to reverse overdoses in people who spend as many as twenty hours a day unconscious. They live without meaningful relationships or memories, with little capacity for choice. The technocrats and politicians call that saving lives. They also provide assisted death to people whose suffering comes primarily from poverty, isolation, or lack of housing. There was a time when these factors could, at least in theory, be addressed so that the terminal decision did not need to be made. Now they are accepted as grounds for ending life.

But why is one preference final and the other treated as an error to correct? That question reflects the deeper disorientation.

We saw the same thing during COVID. Elderly people in care homes were left without touch, family, or comfort for days. They often died in solitude, their dementia accelerated by isolation. And those conditions were inflicted upon them in the name of saving their lives. The “system” measured success in preventing infections, not in preserving connections. Je me souviens. Or we should.

There is a pattern here. We have reduced the idea of saving lives to keeping bodies breathing, while ignoring what makes a life human: agency, meaning, development, and relationship. And in doing so, we begin to define life as mere biological persistence. But to define life by the capacity to breathe and perform basic functions is to place ourselves on the same footing as the non-human animals. It is to say, tacitly, that there is no fundamental distinction between a person and a creature. That, too, is a form of forgetting.

To be clear, the argument here is not that hopeless drug users should be administered MAiD. Instead, it is essential to recognize that the intellectual framework behind harm reduction and MAiD must be taken seriously, as it rests on some rationally defensible claims. In an age where most arguments are emotive and unexamined, the mildly logical has become strangely compelling.

It begins with the idea of autonomy. We cannot force others to live by our values. Every person must decide what makes life worth living. To insist otherwise is paternalism.

Then comes pragmatic compassion. People will use drugs whether we approve or not. People will find their lives unbearable, whether we acknowledge it or not. We can support them or moralize while they die.

There is also an emphasis on subjective experience. No one knows another’s pain. If someone says their suffering is intolerable, we are in no position to deny it, they say. If a user would rather face opioids than withdrawal and despair, are we entitled to interfere?

Finally, the comparison to medical ethics: we do not withhold insulin from diabetics who continue to eat poorly. We do not deny cancer treatment to smokers. Medicine responds to suffering, even when the patient has contributed to their condition. Harm reduction, they argue, simply applies that principle to addiction.

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These arguments produced tangible benefits, they argue. Needle exchanges reduced HIV transmission. Naloxone kits prevented deaths. Safe injection sites meant fewer people dying alone. MAiD brought relief to those in agony. These were not trivial outcomes. I am aware.

Yet when we look more closely, the very logic that underlies these policies also exposes their fatal limitations.

Addiction undermines choice. It hijacks the brain’s ability to reason, compare, and choose. A person deep in addiction is not selecting between alternatives like someone choosing coffee or tea. The structure of choice, the human will, itself is broken. The addiction decides before the person does. St Augustine knew this. Dostoyevsky knew it too.

And for the empirically minded, the research supports this. In British Columbia, where the “safe supply” model was pioneered, some addiction physicians now say the policy is failing. Worse, it may be creating new opioid dependencies in people who were not previously addicted. A study earlier this year found that opioid‑related hospitalizations increased by about 33 percent, compared with pre‑policy rates. With the later addition of a drug-possession decriminalization policy, hospitalizations rose even more (overall, a 58 percent increase compared to before SOS’s implementation). The study concluded that neither safer supply nor decriminalization was associated with a statistically significant reduction in overdose deaths. This is not freedom. It is a new form of bondage, meticulously paved by official compassion.

Despair disguises itself as autonomy, especially in a spiritually unmoored culture that no longer knows how to cope with suffering. A person requesting assisted death because of chronic, untreatable pain may appear lucid and composed, but lucidity is not the same as wisdom. One can reason clearly from false premises. If life is reduced to the absence of pain and the preservation of comfort, then the presence of suffering will seem like failure, and death will appear rational. But that is not a genuine choice because it is based on a misapprehension of what life is. All life entails pain. Some of it is redemptive. Some of it is endured. But it does not follow that the presence of suffering justifies the conclusion of life.

Someone turning to drugs because of homelessness, abandonment, or despair is often in an even deeper eclipse of the will. Here, there is not even the appearance of deliberation, only the reach for numbness in the absence of meaning. What looks like a decision is the residue of collapse. We are not witnessing two forms of autonomy, one clearer than the other. We are witnessing the breakdown of autonomy in various forms, and pretending that it is freedom.

Biological survival is not life. When we maintain someone in a state of near-constant unconsciousness, with no relationships, no capacity for flourishing, we are not preserving life. We are preserving a body. The person may already be gone. To define life as nothing more than breathing and performing bodily functions is to deny what makes us human. It reduces us to the level of non-human creatures, sentient, perhaps, but without reason, memory, moral reflection, or the possibility of transcendence. It tacitly advances the view that there is no essential difference between a person and a critter, so long as both breathe and respond to some stimuli.

Governments do these things to keep ballooning overdosing deaths down, preferring to maintain drugs users among the undead instead. That reminds me of how the Mexican government hardly moves a finger to find the disappeared, 100,000 strong of lately. For as long ss they’re disappeared, they choose not to count them as homicides, and they feel justified in ignoring the causes of all the killing around them.

Some choices are nefarious. Some choices deserve challenge. Not all autonomous acts are equal. The decision to continue living with pain, or to fight addiction, requires agency. The decision to surrender to despair may signal the absence of it. To say all choices are equal is to empty the word autonomy of meaning.

This reflects a dangerously thin view of the human person that permeates our present. What we now call “harm” is only death or physical pain. What we call good is whatever someone prefers. But people are more than collections of wants.

We should have learned this by now. In Alberta, safer supply prescribing was effectively banned in 2022. Officials cited diversion and lack of measurable improvement. We are forcing some people into treatment because we recognize the impairment of judgement in addiction.

In British Columbia, public drug use was quietly re-criminalized after communities rebelled. This was an admission of policy failure. “Keeping people safe is our highest priority,” Premier David Eby said. Yet safe supply remains. In 2023, the province recorded more than 2,500 overdose deaths. Paramedics continue to respond to thousands of overdose calls each month. This is not success. It is a managed collapse.

Meanwhile, Manitoba is preparing to open its own supervised drug-use site. Premier Wab Kinew said, “We have too many Manitobans dying from overdose… so this is one tool we can use.” That may be so. However, it is a tool that others are beginning to set aside. It is a largely discredited tool. Sadly, in the self-professed age of “Reconciliation” with Aboriginal Canadians, Aboricompassionadians are disproportionately affected by these discredited policies.

The Manitoba example illustrates the broader problem, despite damning evidence. Instead of asking what helps people live, we ask whether they gave consent. We do not ask whether they were capable of it. We ask whether they avoided death. We do not ask whether they found purpose.

We are not asking what might lead someone out of addiction. We are not asking what they need to flourish. We ask only what we can do to prevent them from dying in the short term. And when that becomes impossible, technocracy offers them death in a more organized form, cleanly approved by government. That’s compasson.

The deeper problem is not policy incoherence. It is the cultural despair that skates on the thin ice of meaninglessness. These policies make sense only in a culture that has already decided life is not worth too much. What matters is state endorsement and how it’s done .

It is more cost-effective to distribute naloxone than to construct long-term recovery homes. It is easier to train nurses to supervise injection than to provide months of residential treatment. It is far simpler to legalize euthanasia for the poor and the suffering than to work on solutions that lift them out of both. But is it right?

This is not compassion. It is surrender.

A humane policy would aim to restore agency, not validate its absence. It would seek out what helps people grow in wisdom and self-command, not what leaves them comfortably sedated. It would measure success not in lives prolonged into darker dependency but in persons recovered. In lives better lived.

This vision is harder. It costs time. It requires greater effort. It requires care and what some Christians call love of neighbour. It may require saying no when someone asks for help that could lead to ruin. But anything less is not mercy. It is a slow walk toward death while we leave the “system” to pretend there is no choice.

We did have a choice. We chose shallow comfort over deep obligation. We chose to manage symptoms rather than confront the deeper conditions of our age: loneliness, meaninglessness, despair. And now we live among the results: more, not fewer, people swaying in silence, already gone walking dead.

We might ask what we’ve forgotten about suffering, about responsibility, about what life is. Lives are at stake. True. But when our understanding of life is misdirected, so will be the policies the state gives us.

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