Canadian Energy Centre
B.C. expects doubling of natural gas revenues with startup of LNG Canada
LNG Canada CEO Jason Klein. Photo courtesy LNG Canada
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Deborah JaremkoRoyalties help pay for public services like health care, hospitals, education and schools
As Canada’s first LNG export terminal prepares for start-up, British Columbia is preparing for an influx of new revenues that will help fund government programs.
With the LNG Canada project online – expected by mid-2025 – the province expects proceeds from natural gas development will more than double.
The anticipated production of LNG by the middle of this decade boosts the province’s financial outlook, the government said in its Budget 2024.
For LNG Canada CEO Jason Klein, the coming start-up is “the launch of an entirely new Canadian industry.”
It will enable Canada’s first large-scale exports of natural gas to somewhere other than the United States.
LNG Canada site construction activities, Kitimat, June 2023. Photo courtesy LNG Canada
Shipments will primarily go to Asia, where demand is expected to increase by more than 50 per cent over the next three decades, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
While it’s a little over one year before the first LNG carrier will set sail through the Douglas Channel to the ocean, Klein noted the benefits are already being felt.
“More than 30,000 Canadians have worked on our project to date, with almost 9,000 Canadians employed at our Kitimat site in January this year alone,” he said.
“The cumulative value of our project’s contracts and subcontracts to local, Indigenous and other businesses in B.C. has already exceeded $4.7 billion and includes more than $3.8 billion to Indigenous-owned and local area businesses.”
Natural gas royalties paid to the province, which help pay for public services and facilities such as health care, hospitals, education and schools, are expected to rise substantially.
This year, the B.C. government expects $684 million in natural gas royalties, according to its latest annual budget. In 2027, once LNG Canada is operational, this is forecast to surge to $1.4 billion.
Workers at the LNG Canada project site. Photo courtesy LNG Canada
Globally, LNG is playing an increasingly important role in energy supply, with demand set to continue growing beyond 2040, according to Shell’s latest industry outlook.
China is likely to dominate rising LNG demand as the country’s industries look to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas.
Once operational, LNG Canada will demonstrate the low-emissions advantage of Canada’s LNG supply.
“We’ve designed a project with the lowest carbon intensity of any large-scale LNG export facility operating today,” Klein said.
“[It will have] emissions that are 35 per cent lower than the world’s best performing facilities and 60 per cent lower than the global weighted average.”
Canadian Energy Centre
Cross-Canada economic benefits of the proposed Northern Gateway Pipeline project
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Billions in government revenue and thousands of jobs across provinces
Announced in 2006, the Northern Gateway project would have built twin pipelines between Bruderheim, Alta. and a marine terminal at Kitimat, B.C.
One pipeline would export 525,000 barrels per day of heavy oil from Alberta to tidewater markets. The other would import 193,000 barrels per day of condensate to Alberta to dilute heavy oil for pipeline transportation.
The project would have generated significant economic benefits across Canada.
The following projections are drawn from the report Public Interest Benefits of the Northern Gateway Project (Wright Mansell Research Ltd., July 2012), which was submitted as reply evidence during the regulatory process.
Financial figures have been adjusted to 2025 dollars using the Bank of Canada’s Inflation Calculator, with $1.00 in 2012 equivalent to $1.34 in 2025.
Total Government Revenue by Region
Between 2019 and 2048, a period encompassing both construction and operations, the Northern Gateway project was projected to generate the following total government revenues by region (direct, indirect and induced):
British Columbia
- Provincial government revenue: $11.5 billion
- Federal government revenue: $8.9 billion
- Total: $20.4 billion
Alberta
- Provincial government revenue: $49.4 billion
- Federal government revenue: $41.5 billion
- Total: $90.9 billion
Ontario
- Provincial government revenue: $1.7 billion
- Federal government revenue: $2.7 billion
- Total: $4.4 billion
Quebec
- Provincial government revenue: $746 million
- Federal government revenue: $541 million
- Total: $1.29 billion
Saskatchewan
- Provincial government revenue: $6.9 billion
- Federal government revenue: $4.4 billion
- Total: $11.3 billion
Other
- Provincial government revenue: $1.9 billion
- Federal government revenue: $1.4 billion
- Total: $3.3 billion
Canada
- Provincial government revenue: $72.1 billion
- Federal government revenue: $59.4 billion
- Total: $131.7 billion
Annual Government Revenue by Region
Over the period 2019 and 2048, the Northern Gateway project was projected to generate the following annual government revenues by region (direct, indirect and induced):
British Columbia
- Provincial government revenue: $340 million
- Federal government revenue: $261 million
- Total: $601 million per year
Alberta
- Provincial government revenue: $1.5 billion
- Federal government revenue: $1.2 billion
- Total: $2.7 billion per year
Ontario
- Provincial government revenue: $51 million
- Federal government revenue: $79 million
- Total: $130 million per year
Quebec
- Provincial government revenue: $21 million
- Federal government revenue: $16 million
- Total: $37 million per year
Saskatchewan
- Provincial government revenue: $204 million
- Federal government revenue: $129 million
- Total: $333 million per year
Other
- Provincial government revenue: $58 million
- Federal government revenue: $40 million
- Total: $98 million per year
Canada
- Provincial government revenue: $2.1 billion
- Federal government revenue: $1.7 billion
- Total: $3.8 billion per year
Employment by Region
Over the period 2019 to 2048, the Northern Gateway Pipeline was projected to generate the following direct, indirect and induced full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs by region:
British Columbia
- Annual average: 7,736
- Total over the period: 224,344
Alberta
- Annual average: 11,798
- Total over the period: 342,142
Ontario
- Annual average: 3,061
- Total over the period: 88,769
Quebec
- Annual average: 1,003
- Total over the period: 29,087
Saskatchewan
- Annual average: 2,127
- Total over the period: 61,683
Other
- Annual average: 953
- Total over the period: 27,637
Canada
- Annual average: 26,678
- Total over the period: 773,662
Chief David Jimmie is president of Stonlasec8 and Chief of Squiala First Nation in B.C. He also chairs the Western Indigenous Pipeline Group. Photo courtesy Western Indigenous Pipeline Group
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Stonlasec8 agreement is Canada’s first federal Indigenous loan guarantee
The first federally backed Indigenous loan guarantee paves the way for increased prosperity for 36 First Nations communities in British Columbia.
In May, Canada Development Investment Corporation (CDEV) announced a $400 million backstop for the consortium to jointly purchase 12.5 per cent ownership of Enbridge’s Westcoast natural gas pipeline system for $712 million.
In the works for two years, the deal redefines long-standing relationships around a pipeline that has been in operation for generations.
“For 65 years, there’s never been an opportunity or a conversation about participating in an asset that’s come through the territory,” said Chief David Jimmie of the Squiala First Nation near Vancouver, B.C.
“We now have an opportunity to have our Nation’s voices heard directly when we have concerns and our partners are willing to listen.”
Jimmie chairs the Stonlasec8 Indigenous Alliance, which represents the communities buying into the Enbridge system.
The name Stonlasec8 reflects the different regions represented in the agreement, he said.
The Westcoast pipeline stretches more than 2,900 kilometres from northeast B.C. near the Alberta border to the Canada-U.S. border near Bellingham, Wash., running through the middle of the province.
It delivers up to 3.6 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas throughout B.C. and the Lower Mainland, Alberta and the U.S. Pacific Northwest.
“While we see the benefits back to communities, we are still reminded of our responsibility to the land, air and water so it is important to think of reinvestment opportunities in alternative energy sources and how we can offset the carbon footprint,” Jimmie said.
He also chairs the Western Indigenous Pipeline Group (WIPG), a coalition of First Nations communities working in partnership with Pembina Pipeline to secure an ownership stake in the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system.
There is overlap between the communities in the two groups, he said.
CDEV vice-president Sébastien Labelle said provincial models such as the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) and Ontario’s Indigenous Opportunities Financing Program helped bring the federal government’s version of the loan guarantee to life.
“It’s not a new idea. Alberta started it before us, and Ontario,” Labelle said.
“We hired some of the same advisors AIOC hired because we want to make sure we are aligned with the market. We didn’t want to start something completely new.”
Broadly, Jimmie said the Stonlasec8 agreement will provide sustained funding for investments like housing, infrastructure, environmental stewardship and cultural preservation. But it’s up to the individual communities how to spend the ongoing proceeds.
The long-term cash injections from owning equity stakes of major projects can provide benefits that traditional funding agreements with the federal government do not, he said.
Labelle said the goal is to ensure Indigenous communities benefit from projects on their traditional territories.
“There’s a lot of intangible, indirect things that I think are hugely important from an economic perspective,” he said.
“You are improving the relationship with pipeline companies, you are improving social license to do projects like this.”
Jimmie stressed the impact the collaborative atmosphere of the negotiations had on the success of the Stonlasec8 agreement.
“It takes true collaboration to reach a successful partnership, which doesn’t always happen. And from the Nation representation, the sophistication of the group was one of the best I’ve ever worked with.”
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