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Alberta

Alberta’s financial update one for the ages – Historical investments in savings and debt reduction on the way

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Q1 update: Paying down debt and saving for the future

Strong economic activity this year will see Alberta make historic investments in savings and debt reduction.

High revenue forecast for bitumen royalties, other resource revenue and corporate income taxes have increased the province’s forecast surplus to $13.2 billion for 2022-23.

This year’s surplus enables the government to make the largest single-year debt repayment in Alberta’s history, repaying $13.4 billion in debt that comes due this fiscal year. The government will also allocate $5.2 billion to debt coming due in 2023-24.

The government will make the largest ever single-year investment in the Heritage Fund, retaining the fund’s remaining 2021-22 net investment income of $1.2 billion and allocating $1.7 billion, for a total investment of $2.9 billion. This is over and above the $705 million retained for inflation-proofing last year.

“Alberta’s commitment to fiscal discipline and our unrelenting focus on economic growth has helped bring about an extraordinary turnaround in our financial situation. We promised Albertans we would get our fiscal house in order and that’s exactly what we’ve done. Now, we’re paying down debt so future generations won’t have to, saving more for a rainy day, and putting more money in Albertans’ pockets.”

Jason Kenney, Premier

“For too long, governments in Alberta refused to exercise fiscal discipline during boom times. Those days are over. Alberta’s government is making the prudent decision to save and invest surplus revenues so future generations can benefit from the prosperity of today.”

Jason Nixon, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Indexing personal income taxes

The province is fulfilling a commitment made in 2019 to index personal income taxes to inflation, retroactive to the 2022 tax year. The basic personal tax amount is rising to $19,814 and will rise again in 2023.

An additional 80,000 to 95,000 Albertans will pay no provincial personal income tax by 2023, on top of the approximately 1.3 million tax filers who already pay no provincial personal income tax.

Many Albertans will first see the benefit of indexation through lower tax withholdings on their first paycheques of 2023. In addition, since indexation will resume for 2022, Albertans will receive larger refunds or owe less tax when they file their 2022 tax returns in spring 2023. In total, resuming indexation for 2022 and subsequent years will save Albertans an estimated $304 million in 2022-23, $680 million in 2023-24 and $980 million in 2024-25.

Indexing personal income taxes to inflation will contribute further to Alberta’s strong tax advantage: Albertans already pay less in overall taxes, with no PST, no payroll tax and no health premiums.

Alberta’s government has already introduced some of the most generous measures to keep more money in the pockets of Albertans, committing $2.4 billion in relief for rising prices, inflation and cost of living, including:

  • Providing $300 in relief for 1.9 million homeowners, business operators and farmers over six months through the Electricity Rebate Program.
  • Eliminating the 13-cent-per-litre provincial fuel tax until at least the end of September.
  • Helping school authorities cover high fuel costs for buses under the Fuel Price Contingency Program.
  • Providing natural gas rebates from October 2022 to March 2023 to shield consumers from natural gas price spikes.
  • Maintaining Alberta senior benefits for those over 75 years of age, exempting them from the Federal Old Age Security increase.

Other economic growth indicators

Momentum has picked up in Alberta’s labour market. The province has added 68,200 jobs since the beginning of the year and most industries have surpassed employment levels from early 2020, before the pandemic first took hold of the province. Alberta’s unemployment rate fell to 4.8 per cent, the lowest since early 2015. In response to these positive developments, the province has revised its forecast for employment growth to 5.3 per cent, up from 4.1 per cent at budget. The unemployment rate has also been revised down to 5.9 per cent in 2022 from the budget forecast of 6.6 per cent.

Business output has surged in the province on the back of higher demand and prices. While energy products have led the increase, there have been gains across most industries including chemical and forestry products, food manufacturing and machinery. Merchandise exports have risen more than 60 per cent so far this year, while manufacturing shipments are up over 30 per cent.

Higher energy prices are boosting revenues and spending in the oil and gas sector. Strong drilling activity has lifted crude oil production to 3.6 million barrels per day so far this year and is expected to reach a record high this year. Outside the oil and gas sector, companies are proceeding with investment plans, buoyed by solid corporate profits.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.9 per cent in 2022. This is down slightly from the budget forecast of 5.4 per cent, reflecting softer expectations for growth in consumer spending and residential investment as a result of higher inflation and interest rates. Even so, real GDP is expected to fully recover from the COVID-19 downturn and surpass the 2014 peak for the first time this year. Private sector forecasters are expecting Alberta to have among the highest economic growth in the country this year and in 2023.

Quick facts

  • The surplus for 2022-23 is forecast at $13.2 billion, $12.6 billion more than what was estimated in Budget 2022.
  • The revenue forecast for 2022-23 is $75.9 billion, $13.3 billion higher than reported in the budget.
    • Non-renewable resource revenue is forecast at $28.4 billion in 2022-23, up $14.6 billion from budget’s $13.8 billion forecast.
    • Corporate income taxes are up $2 billion from the budget, with a new forecast of $6.1 billion for 2022-23.
    • Revenue from personal income taxes is forecast to be $13.3 billion in 2022-23, down $116 million from budget. Indexation of the personal income tax system, retroactive to Jan. 1, 2022, is forecast to lower revenue by $304 million. This is partially offset by increased revenue from rising primary household income.
  • Total expense is forecast at $62.7 billion, up slightly from the $62.1 billion estimated at budget.
    • Education is receiving an extra $52 million to support the new teachers agreement and to help school authorities pay for bus fuel.
    • $279 million the province received from the federal government for the Site Rehabilitation Program is being spent this year instead of next year.
    • $277 million is needed to cover the cost of selling oil due to higher prices and volumes.
  • The Capital Plan in 2022-23 has increased by $389 million mainly due to carry-over of unspent funds from last fiscal year and an increase of $78 million for highway expansion.
  • Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast at $79.8 billion on March 31, 2023, which is $10.4 billion lower than estimated in the budget.
  • The net debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 10.3 per cent for the end of the fiscal year.

This is a news release from the Government of Alberta.

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Alberta

ASIRT investigations concluded on fatal officer-involved shooting involving the RCMP.

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Incident investigation report from the Alberta Serious Incident Response Team (ASIRT)

Introduction

On December 22, 2022, the Alberta Serious Incident Response Team (ASIRT) was directed pursuant to s. 46.1 of the Police Act to investigate a then non-fatal Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) officer-involved shooting. The shooting of the affected person (AP) was reported to have happened during an interaction with him, as a result of him being a suspect in a complaint of a man with a gun.

While AP initially survived, he died of complications from the shooting the following day.

ASIRT’s Investigation

ASIRT’s investigation was comprehensive and thorough, conducted using current investigative protocols and principles relating to Major Case Management. Information from civilian witnesses, the subject and a witness officers, and importantly video recordings provided sufficient information to determine whether the force used by the subject officer during this incident was reasonable.

Circumstances Surrounding the Officer-Involved Shooting

On December 01, 2022, Maskwacis RCMP received a call reporting that a male [AP] had been drinking and left the caller’s house with a gun. AP was shooting the gun in the country (believed to be the area around the residence). Two RCMP officers responded.

Witness officer (WO) located AP walking on the road with a rifle. AP walked toward WO’s marked police vehicle with the rifle pointed at the vehicle/WO, while WO was seated in the driver’s seat. WO then exited his vehicle with his carbine rifle and moved to the rear of his vehicle while AP kept the rifle pointed at the police vehicle. The subject officer (SO) arrived on scene, but came from the opposite direction. AP turned around and walked toward SO with the barrel of the rifle pointed upwards. SO exited his police vehicle with his service pistol drawn and walked toward AP while he
repeatedly provided verbal direction to AP to drop the firearm. AP and SO were walking toward each other; at that time AP still had the barrel of the rifle pointed upward. As SO and AP got within approximately five meters of each other, AP lowered the barrel of the rifle and pointed it directly at SO. SO fired multiple rounds and struck AP with four rounds causing AP to stumble, drop the rifle and fall to the ground. AP initially survived the shooting and was transported to an Edmonton hospital, where he underwent emergency surgery. The following day, AP succumbed to his injuries.

Analysis

The subject officer was lawfully placed and acting in the execution of his duties in dealing with AP as a person who was the subject of a complaint about him being in possession of a firearm and shooting it off.

The Use of Force

Under s. 25 of the Criminal Code, police officers are permitted to use as much force as is necessary for the execution of their duties. Where this force is intended or is likely to cause death or grievous bodily harm, the officer must believe on reasonable grounds that the force is necessary for the self-preservation of the officer or preservation of anyone under that officer’s protection.

A police officer’s use of force is not to be assessed on a standard of perfection nor using the benefit of hindsight.

With the benefit of hindsight, time for detached reflection and knowledge of the ultimate outcome, it is easy to speculate about how things could have been done differently. That is not the standard, however, against which an officer’s conduct is measured. The question is, applying principles of proportionality, necessity, and reasonableness, whether the force used falls into a range of possible reasonable responses.

Proportionate Response

Proportionality requires balancing a use of force with the action to which it responds. Here, the subject officers were faced with an individual that was armed with a gun and pointing it in their direction. As such, the response by the subject officers in using their respective firearms to shoot AP was proportionate to the threat of death or grievous bodily harm that he reasonably posed to both of them.

Reasonably Necessary

As set out previously in this report, AP presented as a lethal threat to both SO and WO given his actions in pointing his rifle at them. While WO did not shoot during this incident that does not impact the analysis of SO’s actions. Under the circumstances as then faced by SO, no other use of force options were reasonably available for attempted use. The use by SO of his firearm to incapacitate this lethal threat was reasonably necessary. Given the above, the defence available to SO under s. 25 of the Criminal Code would apply.

Conclusion

Under s. 25 of the Criminal Code a police officer is justified in doing what he or she is authorized to do and to use as much force as is reasonably necessary where he or she has reasonable grounds to do so. Force intended to cause death or grievous bodily harm is justified if the officer believes, on reasonable grounds, that the force was necessary to prevent the death or grievous bodily harm of the officer and/or any other person. The analysis under s.34 of the Criminal Code leads to a similar finding that subject officer’s actions were lawfully permitted.

After a thorough, independent and objective investigation into the conduct of the subject officers, it is my opinion that they were lawfully placed and acting properly in the execution of their duties. There is no evidence to support any belief that any officer engaged in any unlawful or unreasonable conduct that would give rise to an offence. The force used was proportionate, necessary and reasonable in all the circumstances.

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Alberta

Alberta requests more control over provincial immigration system

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Alberta is requesting more control over its provincial immigration to address its skilled workforce shortage, including increasing Ukrainian evacuee participation in the job market.

Premier Danielle Smith has written a letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asking him to re-evaluate his government’s decision limiting the number of allocations for Alberta’s provincial nominee program in 2024. Last week, the federal government informed the province it would only receive 9,750 such allotments – which is the same number of allocations Alberta received in 2023 and is less than the 10,140 for 2024 the federal government had originally allocated.

As of February 2024, Alberta accounts for just under 12 per cent of Canada’s population, but it leads the nation in net employment growth, with 42.8 per cent of the country’s employment gains between January and February 2024. By not providing the requested increase to Alberta’s provincial nominee allocations, the federal government is restricting the province’s ability to keep up with its growing labour market demands, especially as it relates to integrating Ukrainian evacuees into Alberta’s job market.

“Alberta is growing and that is good news. Since January 2023, more than 100,000 new jobs have been created in our province and our employment rate has led the country even longer. At the same time, we continue to experience labour shortages that could be resolved by welcoming skilled workers from around the world, including evacuees from Ukraine, many of whom have the exact skills that our job market most needs. Alberta has long been the economic engine of Canada and we are once again requesting Ottawa respect section 95 of the Constitution and let us welcome the skilled individuals we need into our province on our terms.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

With Alberta’s population growth at levels not seen in four decades, Alberta’s Provincial Nominee Program is best placed to address the province’s unique immigration and economic goals.

Part of Alberta’s population growth has resulted from Russia’s invasion in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Since that time, Alberta has welcomed a significant number of Ukrainian evacuees to the province. While it is anticipated that many will return to Ukraine following the war, Alberta is also expecting a number of families to apply for permanent residency via the Alberta Advantage Immigration Program. An increase in the number of allocations from the federal government would assist these new Albertans to fill positions in the province’s workforce.

“Immigration is key to Alberta’s ability to address labour shortages and to grow our economy. This limitation imposed by the federal government on our provincial nominee program will be a very difficult pill to swallow, not only for businesses that need this skilled labour but also to the many Ukrainian evacuees who have the skills we need and wish to stay permanently in Alberta.”

Muhammad Yaseen, Minister of Immigration and Multiculturalism

Quick facts

  • The federal government through Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada sets provincial immigration nomination limits. It also approves all permanent resident applications.
  • Alberta maximized its 9,750 nomination allocations in 2023, with a total of 10,029 nominations issued within the federal government administrative buffer.

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