5 year payback estimate for EV battery-maker subsidies off by 15 years! – PBO

Ottawa’s super-charged EV obsession reaches new heights

Every week, it seems, we get another report revealing the deep thoughtlessness and fiscal recklessness of Ottawa’s electric car and electric-car battery fixation. For example, the Parliamentary Budget Officer recently asked how long it will take for the federal government to see a return on the $28.2 billion of production subsidies to EV battery-makers Stellantis and Volkswagen. The answer—about four times longer than government originally claimed.

Remember, Prime Minister Trudeau said the “full economic impact of the project will be equal to the value of government investment in less than five years.” But according to the PBO, it will take 20 years, not five years, to merely recover the money the government “invested” on behalf of Canadians. There’s no actual profit to be had at that point.

Why the discrepancy?

To figure that out, the PBO looked into the government’s modelling used to generate its “five-year” payback scenario and found that the government’s estimate included numerous assumptions about other investments (and assumed production increases) outside the direct battery-making process including assumed capability in battery-material production, which is shorthand for mining and refining of critical metals and minerals needed to make EV batteries. Of course, this is a notoriously uncertain proposition given Canada’s dismal performance in bringing new mining-related infrastructure projects with EV-battery potential to fruition.

In fact, as the PBO notes, of the total “investment package” government modelled in calculating its “payback” date, only 8.6 per cent was directly related to battery production at the Volkswagen plant. More than 90 per cent was based on assumptions about developments outside of the subsidized battery-makers purview or control.

By contract, the PBO’s modelling of the investment cost-recovery focused only on “government revenues generated by cell and module manufacturing, upon which the production subsidies are based.” And unlike the government’s analysis, the PBO analysis starts when production is actually expected to begin at the new battery plants, which is not until sometime next year.

And yet, the PBO analysis remains quite generous as it excluded “public debt charges that would be incurred to finance the production subsidies” and simply accepted estimates of production capability by Stellantis and Volkswagen.

Clearly, the Trudeau government’s EV crusade is textbook bad public policy where the government attempts to pick winners and losers in the economy, in this case dependent on fanciful scenarios of future developments in global markets far outside Canada’s control. The crusade is also out of step with developments in the largest likely market for Canadian EVs and EV products—the United States, where car buyers are increasingly rejecting EVs despite heavy subsidies and massive government spending initiatives to promote EV manufacturing.

Governments in North America have been trying to push EVs over internal combustion vehicles for 30 years now, and it has not worked. EVs have consistently failed to compete with combustion vehicles on performance and cost, and failed to win broad consumer support despite oceans of government subsidies for manufacturers and buyers alike. It’s long past time for government to take off its rose-coloured glasses on the EV transition. There are better uses for government’s time and money. Getting people’s food and housing costs down, for example, might be a good place to start.

Author:

Kenneth P. Green

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

Up Next

Petition endorsed by MP Leslyn Lewis urges government to take Canada out of UN and WHO

Don't Miss

Mental Health Crisis as Canada ranks poorly in access to services

Todayville

Todayville is a digital media and technology company. We profile unique stories and events in our community. Register and promote your community event for free.

Follow Author

Alberta gets credit boost because of budget discipline

Agriculture / 17 hours ago

Their Strategy in the War on Food

Energy / 1 day ago

Why we should be skeptical of the hydrogen economy

Alberta

Alberta gets credit boost because of budget discipline

Published on June 17, 2024

Todayville

News release from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation

Author: Kris Sim

“bringing net adjusted debt to an estimated CAD 57.5 billion in fiscal 2024 (ended on March 31) from CAD 74.6 billion in fiscal 2022”

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is applauding the Alberta government for its fiscal discipline which earned the province a boost in its credit rating.

“Alberta is one of the only provinces in Canada with a balanced budget, and it shows with this credit upgrade,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “Paying down the debt, restraining spending and saving for the future were very good moves by this government.”

In its most recent budget, Alberta reported a $367-million surplus. That stands in contrast to neighbouring Saskatchewan’s $273-million deficit and British Columbia’s record-breaking $7.9-billion deficit.

The rating agency, Fitch, upgraded Alberta’s credit from AA- to AA this week, highlighting its debt repayment as a key reason for the improvement.

“Alberta used its recent economic rebound to accelerate fiscal improvements and lower its debt, bringing net adjusted debt to an estimated CAD 57.5 billion in fiscal 2024 (ended on March 31) from CAD 74.6 billion in fiscal 2022,” the Fitch report reads.

The agency also cited Alberta’s spending restraint as a reason for the positive outlook.

“The rapid decline in debt and adherence to spending restraint in recent budgets have been complement with last year’s introduction of a fiscal framework requiring balanced budgets, annual contingencies and using surpluses for debt repayment, savings or one-time investment, is likely to bolster future resilience,” the Fitch report reads.

Interest charges on the province’s debt are estimated to cost taxpayers $3.3 billion this year.

“Credit ratings matter because Albertans pay billions of dollars on interest payments on the debt every year, better credit ratings make it less expensive to pay for that debt, and the less money we waste to pay debt interest charges the better,” said Sims.

Economy

Carbon tax costs Canadian economy billions

Published on June 14, 2024

Todayville

From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation

Author: Franco Terrazzano

This tax costs Canadians big time at the gas pump, on home heating bills, on the farm and at the dinner table.

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is calling on the federal government to scrap the carbon tax in light of newly released government data showing the tax will cost the Canadian economy about $25 billion in 2030.

“Once again, we see the government’s own data showing what hardworking Canadians already know: the carbon tax costs Canada big time,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “The carbon tax makes the necessities of life more expensive and it will cost our economy billions of dollars.

“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau must scrap his carbon tax now.”

The government of Canada released modelling showing the cost of the carbon tax on the Canadian economy Thursday.

“The country’s GDP is expected to be about $25 billion lower in 2030 due to carbon pricing than it would be otherwise,” reports the Globe and Mail.

Canada contributes about 1.5 per cent of global emissions.

Government data shows emissions are going up in Canada. In 2022, the latest year of data, emissions in Canada were 708 megatonnes of CO2, an increase of 9.3 megatonnes from 2021.

The federal carbon tax currently costs 17 cents per litre of gasoline, 21 cents per litre of diesel and 15 cents per cubic metre of natural gas.

The carbon tax adds about $13 to the cost of filling up a minivan, about $20 to the cost of filling up a pickup truck and about $200 to the cost of filling up a big rig truck with diesel.

Farmers are charged the carbon tax for heating their barns and drying grains with natural gas and propane. The carbon tax will cost Canadian farmers $1 billion by 2030, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

“No matter how many times this government tries to put lipstick on the carbon tax pig, the reality is clear,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “This tax costs Canadians big time at the gas pump, on home heating bills, on the farm and at the dinner table. Trudeau should make life more affordable and improve the Canadian economy by scrapping his carbon tax.”