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Another minority looks likely but it could be very different from the last one

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OTTAWA — Canadians have chosen minority governments in four of the last six federal elections and Monday’s vote seems likely to produce a fifth.

Whether it will be a Liberal or Conservative minority is anyone’s guess.

Polls suggest the two parties are locked in a dead heat, neither within reach of winning a majority of seats in the House of Commons — much as they were in 2019 when Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won a relatively stable minority.

But that doesn’t mean this election will produce the same result.

Here are some things to keep in mind about how minority governments are formed and what another one might look like:

— Which of the two front-runners ultimately forms government doesn’t necessarily depend on who wins the greatest share of the popular vote or even who wins the most seats.

Rather, it depends on which party can command the confidence of the House, notes University of British Columbia political scientist Maxwell Cameron.

And that means: which party is able to muster enough support from one or more smaller parties to win crucial confidence votes?

— If he were to see little prospect of mustering sufficient opposition support to continue governing, Trudeau would likely resign and allow the Conservatives to form government.

But regardless of the outcome, Trudeau has the right to carry on until he is defeated in a confidence vote in the Commons. Opposition parties would get their first opportunity to topple his government by voting against the throne speech, which opens each new session of Parliament.

If the throne speech was defeated, it would be the prerogative of the Governor General to invite Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole to form a new government. O’Toole would then have to gain support from one or more of the other opposition parties in order to command the confidence of the House. If he could not, another election would be triggered.

— In 2019, the Conservatives actually won a slightly larger share of the popular vote but, because so much of it was concentrated in the Prairie provinces, they came up with 36 fewer seats than the Liberals.

There was never any suspense about whether the Liberals would continue to govern. They were only 13 seats short of a majority and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, whose party captured 24 seats, had been clear during the campaign that New Democrats would never prop up a Conservative minority.

Trudeau was able to govern without reaching any formal deal with opposition parties, relying on support from different parties at different times to survive confidence votes and pass legislation.

— Singh has not ruled out propping up the Conservatives this time. Nor has Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet.

Although O’Toole has shifted the Conservatives more toward the centre of the political spectrum, Cameron suspects it would still be harder for him to find a dance partner in the Commons, since both the Bloc and NDP are more ideologically aligned with the Liberals.

However, Quebec Premier Francois Legault’s virtual endorsement of the Conservatives could influence the Bloc to give O’Toole a chance to move into the Prime Minister’s Office.

— So what would happen if the NDP were to back the Liberals and the Bloc were to back the Conservatives but, even so, neither of the front-runners could muster majority support in the Commons?

In that case, it’s theoretically possible that a handful of Green Party or People’s Party MPs could determine which of the front-runners forms government.

— The further either of the front-runners is from the 170 seats needed for a majority, the more leverage the smaller parties would have to make demands in return for their support.

There are three approaches to minorities, notes Cameron, the most common being the informal vote-by-vote approach taken by Trudeau during the past two years. Cameron suspects that would be the likely approach again should Monday’s election produce another minority.

However, it’s possible that Trudeau or O’Toole might be compelled to go further, negotiating an agreement with one or more smaller parties to prop them up for a period of time in exchange for specific legislative action.

That’s how David Peterson’s Liberals took power in Ontario in 1985, striking a two-year deal with the NDP to oust the Conservatives, who had won the most seats.

It’s also how John Horgan’s NDP won power in British Columbia in 2017, ousting the Liberals who had won the most seats by securing the support of the Greens’ three members of the legislature.

It’s also possible that the smaller parties could demand to be part of a coalition government. But coalitions, while common in other countries, are rare in Canada where the notion has been tainted by an aborted attempt to unseat Stephen Harper shortly after he won a second Conservative minority in 2008.

At that time, the Liberals and NDP negotiated an agreement to form a shaky coalition government, but since both parties combined still fell short of a majority, they had to secure a promise of support from the separatist Bloc Québécois. Further complicating matters, the would-be coalition prime minister, Stéphane Dion, had already resigned as Liberal leader.

Harper railed about the coalition as an affront to democracy, effectively characterizing it as an attempted separatist-backed coup and winning the public relations war. He then persuaded the Governor General to prorogue Parliament, buying himself some time.

By the time Parliament resumed, Dion was gone, the Liberals had got cold feet and the coalition agreement fell apart.

— While the smaller parties might be tempted to make stiff demands in return for their support, Cameron thinks their bargaining power would be limited by the fact that no one would want to plunge the country into yet another election in the midst of the fourth wave of COVID-19.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2021.

Joan Bryden, The Canadian Press

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COVID-19

Africa tries to end vaccine inequity by replicating its own

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CAPE TOWN, South Africa (AP) — In a pair of Cape Town warehouses converted into a maze of airlocked sterile rooms, young scientists are assembling and calibrating the equipment needed to reverse engineer a coronavirus vaccine that has yet to reach South Africa and most of the world’s poorest people.

The energy in the gleaming labs matches the urgency of their mission to narrow vaccine disparities. By working to replicate Moderna’s COVID-19 shot, the scientists are effectively making an end run around an industry that has vastly prioritized rich countries over poor in both sales and manufacturing.

And they are doing it with unusual backing from the World Health Organization, which is coordinating a vaccine research, training and production hub in South Africa along with a related supply chain for critical raw materials. It’s a last-resort effort to make doses for people going without, and the intellectual property implications are still murky.

“We are doing this for Africa at this moment, and that drives us,” said Emile Hendricks, a 22-year-old biotechnologist for Afrigen Biologics and Vaccines, the company trying to reproduce the Moderna shot. “We can no longer rely on these big superpowers to come in and save us.”

Some experts see reverse engineering — recreating vaccines from fragments of publicly available information — as one of the few remaining ways to redress the power imbalances of the pandemic. Only 0.7% of vaccines have gone to low-income countries so far, while nearly half have gone to wealthy countries, according to an analysis by the People’s Vaccine Alliance.

That WHO, which relies upon the goodwill of wealthy countries and the pharmaceutical industry for its continued existence, is leading the attempt to reproduce a proprietary vaccine demonstrates the depths of the supply disparities.

The U.N.-backed effort to even out global vaccine distribution, known as COVAX, has failed to alleviate dire shortages in poor countries. Donated doses are coming in at a fraction of what is needed to fill the gap. Meanwhile, pressure for drug companies to share, including Biden administration demands on Moderna, has led nowhere.

Until now, WHO has never directly taken part in replicating a novel vaccine for current global use over the objections of the original developers. The Cape Town hub is intended to expand access to the novel messenger RNA technology that Moderna, as well as Pfizer and German partner BioNTech, used in their vaccines.

“This is the first time we’re doing it to this level, because of the urgency and also because of the novelty of this technology,” said Martin Friede, a WHO vaccine research coordinator who is helping direct the hub.

Dr. Tom Frieden, the former head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has described the world as “being held hostage” by Moderna and Pfizer, whose vaccines are considered the most effective against COVID-19. The novel mRNA process uses the genetic code for the spike protein of the coronavirus and is thought to trigger a better immune response than traditional vaccines.

Arguing that American taxpayers largely funded Moderna’s vaccine development, the Biden administration has insisted the company must expand production to help supply developing nations. The global shortfall through 2022 is estimated at 500 million and 4 billion doses, depending on how many other vaccines come on the market.

“The United States government has played a very substantial role in making Moderna the company it is,” said David Kessler, the head of Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. program to accelerate COVID-19 vaccine development.

Kessler would not say how far the administration would go in pressing the company. “They understand what we expect to happen,” he said.

Moderna has pledged to build a vaccine factory in Africa at some point in the future. But after pleading with drugmakers to share their recipes, raw materials and technological know-how, some poorer countries are done waiting.

Afrigen Managing Director Petro Terblanche said the Cape Town company is aiming to have a version of the Moderna vaccine ready for testing in people within a year and scaled up for commercial production not long after.

“We have a lot of competition coming from Big Pharma. They don’t want to see us succeed,” Terblanche said. “They are already starting to say that we don’t have the capability to do this. We are going to show them.”

If the team in South Africa succeeds in making a version of Moderna’s vaccine, the information will be publicly released for use by others, Terblanche said. Such sharing is closer to an approach U.S. President Joe Biden championed in the spring and the pharmaceutical industry strongly opposes.

Commercial production is the point at which intellectual property could become an issue. Moderna has said it would not pursue legal action against a company for infringing on its vaccine rights, but neither has it offered to help companies that have volunteered to make its mRNA shot.

Chairman Noubar Afeyan said Moderna determined it would be better to expand production itself than to share technology and plans to deliver billions of additional doses next year.

“Within the next six to nine months, the most reliable way to make high-quality vaccines and in an efficient way is going to be if we make them,” Afeyan said.

Zoltan Kis, an expert in messenger RNA vaccines at Britain’s University of Sheffield, said reproducing Moderna’s vaccine is “doable” but the task would be far easier if the company shared its expertise. Kis estimated the process involves fewer than a dozen major steps. But certain procedures are tricky, such as sealing the fragile messenger RNA in lipid nanoparticles, he said.

“It’s like a very complicated cooking recipe,” he said. “Having the recipe would be very, very helpful, and it would also help if someone could show you how to do it.”

A U.N.-backed public health organization still hopes to persuade Moderna that its approach to providing vaccines for poorer countries misses the mark. Formed in 2010, the Medicines Patent Pool initially focused on convincing pharmaceutical companies to share patents for AIDS drugs.

“It’s not about outsiders helping Africa,” Executive Director Charles Gore said of the South Africa vaccine hub. “Africa wants to be empowered, and that’s what this is about.”

It will eventually fall to Gore to try to resolve the intellectual property question. Work to recreate Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine is protected as research, so a potential dispute would surround steps to sell a replicated version commercially, he said.

“It’s about persuading Moderna to work with us rather than using other methods,” Gore said.

He said the Medicines Patent Pool repeatedly tried but failed to convince Pfizer and BioNTech to even discuss sharing their formulas.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who is among the members of Congress backing a bill that calls on the United States to invest more in making and distributing COVID-19 vaccines in low- and middle-income countries, said reverse engineering isn’t going to happen fast enough to keep the virus from mutating and spreading further.

“We need to show some hustle. We have to show a sense of urgency, and I’m not seeing that urgency,” he said. “Either we end this pandemic or we muddle our way through.”

Campaigners argue the meager amount of vaccines available to poorer countries through donations, COVAX and purchases suggests the Western-dominated pharmaceutical industry is broken.

“The enemy to these corporations is losing their potential profit down the line,” Joia Mukherjee, chief medical officer of the global health nonprofit Partners in Health, said. “The enemy isn’t the virus, the enemy isn’t suffering.”

Back in Cape Town, the promise of using mRNA technology against other diseases motivates the young scientists.

“The excitement is around learning how we harness mRNA technology to develop a COVID-19 vaccine,” Caryn Fenner, Afrigen’s technical director, said. But more important, Fenner said, “is not only using the mRNA platform for COVID, but for beyond COVID.”

___

Cheng reported from London; Hinnant reported from Paris.

Lori Hinnant, Maria Cheng And Andrew Meldrum, The Associated Press

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Canadiens top Detroit 6-1, snap 5-game season-opening skid

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MONTREAL (AP) — Mathieu Perreault had a hat trick and the Montreal Canadiens beat the Detroit Red Wings 6-1 on Saturday night to end their season-opening losing streak at five.

Perreault, Christian Dvorak and Mike Hoffman scored their first goals in Canadiens uniforms. Defenseman Sami Niku also earned his first points in his first start, finishing with two assists.

Jake Allen made 26 saves for Montreal.

Detroit goalie Thomas Greiss was pulled in the second period after conceding five goals on 17 shots. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped all six shots in relief.

Montreal gave up a power play early in the first period and the Red Wings took no time to find the opening goal, with Dylan Larkin beating Allen into the upper right-hand corner.

Ben Chiarot responded for Canadiens with 5:50 to go in the first period. The defenseman scored off a cross-ice pass from Jonathan Drouin.

FLAMES 4, CAPITALS 3, OT

WASHINGTON (AP) — Elias Lindholm completed his second career hat trick with a one-timer 2:46 into overtime, and Calgary beat Washington.

Lindholm’s fourth, fifth and sixth goals of the season helped the Flames to a second consecutive victory, this one coming after blowing an early 3-0 lead. Washington had won two in a row.

Andrew Mangiapane scored his third goal of the season for the Flames.

Calgary’s Dan Vladar made 22 saves and Johnny Gaudreau had two assists, including the final feed to Lindholm for an effort that caught the body of goaltender Ilya Samsonov before trickling over the line.

Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Martin Fehervary scored for the Capitals. Ovechkin moved to 735 career goals, bringing him within six of Brett Hull for fourth on the NHL list.

RANGERS 3, SENATORS 2

OTTAWA, Ontario (AP) — Chris Kreider, Ryan Lindgren and Barclay Goodrow scored in the final six minutes, rallying New York to its fourth straight win, all on the road.

Alexandar Georgiev made 26 saves for the Rangers..

Ottawa led 2-0 after Josh Norris’ goal early in the third period, but the Senators unraveled late. Kreider scored a power-play goal by beating Matt Murray in close with 5:23 left.

Murray, who stopped 22 shots, left the game following the goal, leaving Anton Forsberg to close things out. Forsberg gave up a goal to Lindgren on the first shot he faced with 4:08 left.

Goodrow scored the winner with 2:03 left by deflecting a long shot from Sammy Blais past Forsberg.

Nick Paul also scored for Ottawa.

WILD 4, DUCKS 3, OT

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Ryan Hartman scored with 12.1 seconds left in overtime and Minnesota extended its season-opening win streak to four games in beating Anaheim.

Brandon Duhaime, Jared Spurgeon and Jon Merrill scored for Minnesota, which has won its first four games for the first time since 2008-09. The franchise best for season-opening wins is six in 2006-07. Cam Talbot had 21 saves for Minnesota.

Rickard Rakell had two goals and Troy Terry also scored for Anaheim. John Gibson had 32 saves for the Ducks.

HURRICANES 5, BLUE JACKETS 1

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Vincent Trocheck had two goals and an assist to lead Carolina to its fourth straight win to open the season.

Jordan Staal and Sebastian Aho added power-play goals, and Jesper Fast also scored for Carolina. Frederik Andersen stopped 27 shots in his fourth straight win.

Columbus captain Boone Jenner scored, and Joonas Korpisalo finished with 28 saves. Korpisalo lost his second straight game, and the Blue Jackets absorbed their first defeat at home in four games this season.

PANTHERS 4, FLYERS 2

PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Jonathan Huberdeau scored twice, including the go-ahead goal in the third period, and added an assist to lead Florida over Philadelphia.

Owen Tippett also scored and Sam Reinhart had an empty-netter for Florida, which extended its club-record best start to 5-0.

Claude Giroux and Cam Atkinson scored for Philadelphia.

Sergei Bobrovsky made 27 saves for the Panthers. Bobrovsky earned his 300th win in Florida’s last game, a 4-1 victory over Colorado on Thursday night.

DEVILS 2, SABRES 1, OT

NEWARK, N.J. (AP) — Pavel Zacha scored at 3:09 of overtime to give New Jersey a victory over Buffalo.

Nico Daws stopped 24 shots to win in his NHL debut, and Nico Hischier had a power-play goal for New Jersey.

Dylan Cozens scored a power-play goal for Buffalo, and Dustin Tokarski made 37 saves.

AVALANCHE 4, LIGHTNING 3, OT

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — Cale Makar scored in the sixth round of the shootout to give Colorado the win over Tampa Bay.

Makar beat Andrei Vasilevskiy with a wrist shot after Darcy Kuemper denied Anthony Cirelli to begin the sixth round as the Avalanche ended a three-game losing streak.

Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point tied the game 3-3 with 2:35 remaining in the third period.

Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen scored, and Kuemper made 29 saves for Colorado, which had lost three in a row.

Brayden Point, Mathieu Joseph and Steven Stamkos scored for the Lightning. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 24 saves.

PENGUINS 7, MAPLE LEAFS 1

PITTSBURGH (AP) — Drew O’Connor scored twice and Pittsburgh routed Toronto.

O’Connor got his second and third goals of the season. Marcus Pettersson also scored and added two assists for a career-high three points. The Penguins, playing without five of their best players, including Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, broke a 1-all tie with a four-goal second period.

Evan Rodrigues scored his third goal, while Jason Zucker and Brian Boyle both got their second of the season. Mike Matheson also scored his first for Pittsburgh. Tristan Jarry made 28 saves for the Penguins.

Jason Spezza scored his third for Toronto, which lost its third straight game. Jack Campbell allowed five goals on 21 shots through two periods. Michael Hutchinson stopped 10 shots in the third.

JETS 6, PREDATORS 4

WINNIPEG, Manitoba (AP) — Paul Stastny scored twice and short-handed Winnipeg held off Nashville.

Rookie forward Kristian Vesalainen got his first NHL goal for Winnipeg. Kyle Connor, Pierre Luc-Dubois and Adam Lowry also scored for the Jets, who played without No. 1 center Mark Scheifele and captain Blake Wheeler for the second consecutive game. Both are in COVID-19 protocol.

Connor Hellebuyck made 26 saves in the win.

Colton Sissons, Nick Cousins, Philip Tomasino and defenseman Roman Josi scored for Nashville. Juuse Saros stopped 23 shots.

BLUES 7, KINGS 3

ST. LOUIS (AP) — David Perron had three goals and an assist, Jake Neighbours scored his first NHL goal, and St. Louis beat Los Angeles.

Ivan Barbashev, Ryan O’Reilly and James Neal also scored for the Blues. Jordan Binnington made 32 saves as St. Louis won its fourth straight game to open a season for the third time in franchise history.

Perron’s sixth career hat trick gave him five goals in his last two games.

Alex Iafallo, Justin Brown and Carl Grundstrom scored for the Kings, who lost their fourth straight. Calvin Petersen made 33 saves.

ISLANDERS 3, COYOTES 0

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) — Brock Nelson had a goal and an assist, Ilya Sorokin stopped 26 shots and New York kept Arizona winless.

New York got off to slow starts in the first two periods, but Sorokin made some tough saves for his fourth career shutout. Cal Clutterbuck and Anthony Beauvillier also scored for the Islanders, who have five points in three games after two opening losses.

The Coyotes limited shots and controlled the puck for long periods of the opening two periods, yet trailed 2-0 heading into the third. Karel Vejmelka had 21 saves for Arizona, which has one point (0-4-1) in five games this season.

The Islanders arrived in the desert for game five of their season-opening 13-game road trip while construction of their new arena is being completed.

___

More AP NHL: https://apnews.com/hub/NHL and https://twitter.com/AP_Sports

The Associated Press

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